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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk October 6

 After the close:

USDA Crop Progress Report:

 

Corn= 17% harvested

 

Soybeans= 20% harvested.

 

Both are what the trade had expected.

 

Looking Ahead:

Allendale Inc. released its pre-USDA Report estimates Monday.

 

Corn - Old crop stocks are revised to the September 30 Grain Stocks level. A 325,000 decrease in planted acreage was made (91.316 million now) for 2014/15. Harvested acreage is 267,000 lower than September USDA (83.572). Yields have been increased to 175.5 for this report.
 
Soybeans - Old crop stocks are revised to the September 30 Grain Stocks report. A 502,000 decrease in planted acreage was made (84.337 million now). Harvested is lowered by 480,000 to 83.578 million. Yields have been increased to 48.0 for this report. Despite an increase in new crop production of 102 million we have lower ending stocks due to smaller 2013/14 ending stocks and greater new crop demand than USDA September.

 

 

What do you think?

 

Mike

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At the close:

The December corn futures closed 9 1/4 cents higher at $3.32 per bushel.

November soybean futures settled 30 cents higher at $9.42.

December wheat futures finished 5 3/4 cents higher at $4.91.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract settled $10.10 per short ton higher at $308.90; Dec. soybean oil futures closed $1.03 higher at $33.45.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.56 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 22 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

 

The December corn futures are trading 7 1/4 cents higher at $3.30 per bushel.

November soybean futures are 25 1/2 cents higher at $9.37.

December wheat futures are 5 1/4 cents higher at $4.91.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is trading $8.80 per short ton higher at $307.60; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $1.01 higher at $33.43.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.32 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 9am:

--The trade sees this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress Report will show corn harvest at 19-21% and bean harvest at 21-24%, with winter wheat planting at 55%.

 

--If you missed it Friday,  the Disaggregated CFTC Report showed the managed money funds putting on 12,000 net soybean contracts and getting rid of 12,000 net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday, September 30, 2014. The moves were within trade estimates. For soyeal. it maintained its position on the week, compared to expectations of an 8,000 net loss. Producer and merchant net activity was barely noteworthy, they shed 10,000 net corn and over 5,000 net CBOT wheat.

 

Mike

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At the open:

 

The December corn futures opened 5 1/4 cents higher at $3.28 per bushel.

November soybean futures opened 15 cents higher at $9.27.

December wheat futures opened 6 3/4 cents higher at $4.92.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract opened $4.60 per short ton higher at $303.40; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.87 higher at $32.29.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.02 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 86 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

Early calls: Corn is 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 10-12 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.62 per barrel higher.
Dollar = Lower
Wall Street = Seen higher, with eyes on Hewlettt-Packard splitting into two separate companies.
World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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3 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 6

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Monday export sales of 210,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations during the 2014/2015 marketing year. 

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

 

I wonder if this demand is helping corn trade higher today?

 

Mike

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 6

Bearish news seems to be loosing potency.  And usda seems to be having trouble with inventory measurement.  Maybe we can trade real bushels for a while.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 6

Mike, 

 

I am not reading many excuses for todays market except the small admission of error on last years acres and yields  or am I reading that wrong?

Were we all expecting this much of a monday move?

 

I notice a few of the yield report maps are not shining in many states outside of Illinois,  Good crop should still be out there in a few areas.  Damaged and Green corn yet to come as well in areas.

 

Best crop ever looks to be coming in late November ??????????

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