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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 550
Registered: ‎09-09-2014
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Floor Talk October 6

[ Edited ]

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec. corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.50, while March futures are 1¢ higher at $3.63. Nov. soybean futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $9.69, Jan. soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ higher $9.80. September wheat futures are 3¢ higher at $4.43. Dec. soy meal futures are $1.50 per short ton higher at $318.40. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.08 lower at 32.92¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.42 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 27 points lower.

 

Dustin Johnson, AgYield’s Senior Strategist, says that weather outlooks are propping up soybean prices.
“Dryness and above normal temps in Brazilian forecasts are the main drivers keeping prices supported,” Johnson says. It is actually surprising to see the market optimism, given the anecdotal yield reports, slow export sales pace, and a bounce from the lows in the US Dollar index.”
Johnson adds, “Therefore, the confidence to buy soybeans and hedge it with short corn must be high for the potential South American weather issue. The ratio is approaching 2017 highs again.”

 

 

Mike

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At the open:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.50, while March futures are 1¢ higher at $3.63. Nov. soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $9.65, Jan. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower $9.76. September wheat futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $4.42. Dec. soy meal futures are $1.10 per short ton lower at $315.80. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.06 lower at 32.92¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.34 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points lower.

 

Mike

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Grains and beans were little changed overnight as investors can't decide whether to bet on prices to rise due to the harvest delays or bet against prices due to expectations that the USDA will raise its projections in next week's WASDE. Analysts are saying early trade guesses are for higher yield and production from the government next week. Still, the harvest is already well behind normal and that's just getting worse due to the rain. There's flash flooding in Missouri, further delays expected in much of the Corn Belt and freezing weather in northern Minnesota, so there's plenty of reason for concern. Yet corn, beans and wheat were all down a penny or less this morning. Corn export sales were good, topping expectations, but soybeans were on the lower end of forecasts. Check it all out in today's 3 Big Things at http://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-october-6.

 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = down 0.4%

West Texas Intermediate = down 1%

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher on light volume as parts of Asia on holiday.

Advisor
Posts: 1,376
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk October 6

Tony, we must have some heavy yield hitters in northern Iowa and Minnesota. Most yield reports seem less than expected.

Advisor
Posts: 507
Registered: ‎08-31-2012
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Re: Floor Talk October 6

Hey Tony = who moved the goalposts for sales expectations?

From yesterday's post = I assume by Mike:

 

At 9:30am:

If you missed it earlier, the USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report showed higher corn and soybean meal exports than expected, soybean sales were at the high end of expectations.

 

 

Corn= 814,000 metric tons  vs. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000-750,000 mt.

Soybeans=1.01 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 600,000-1,200,000 mt.

Wheat= 492,300 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000-500,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 340,500 mt.  vs. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000-200,000 mt. 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,329
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk October 6

trains and barges must be getting through?

 

I heard rumors basis in Minnesota on the river improved 13¢ on beans yesterday.

 

Gotta be equipment getting worn out moving all that Grain, especially the beans and rice.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,659
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk October 6

Yep the numbers can be whatever we need them to be and that is for sure a "political reconstruction of history"