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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk October 7

At the close:

 

 

The December corn futures settled 8 cents higher at $3.40 3/4 per bushel.

November soybean futures finished 1 1/2 cents lower at $9.40 3/4.

December wheat futures ended 14 3/4 cents higher at $5.06 1/4.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract closed $3.70 per short ton higher at $312.60; Dec. soybean oil futures finished $0.35 lower at $33.10.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $1.20 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 187 points lower.

 

Mike

--------

 

At mid-session:

The December corn futures are trading 7 1/4 cents higher at $3.39 per bushel.

November soybean futures are trading 9 3/4 cents higher at $9.52.

December wheat futures are trading 15 1/4 cents higher at $5.06 3/4.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is trading $7.40 per short ton higher at $316.30; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.17 lower at $33.28.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $1.11 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 118 points lower.

 

Jason Ward, Director of Grains and Energy, Northstar Commodity, says that corn continues to see buyers before the report on Friday, and it is on the heels of the strength in the wheat/soybeans.
“There are some disappointing yields starting to pop up in Iowa (started last week). And, the short covering strength we are seeing in wheat/soybeans is certainly lending support over to the corn market. We see $3.50 as the next resistance and don’t expect prices to run through that level prior to the report,” Ward says.
In soybeans, the markets has traded through last week’s high of $9.30, and the short covering continued this morning, pushing prices up to $9.55, he says.
“Wheat futures closed higher last week, above the previous week’s high. And, that short covering has spurred a further rally this week to test the 2-week high of $5.08,” Ward says.
He adds, “This support has spilled over to corn at a time of year that the producer does not want to see a rally, as his crop insurance price is being set with the daily average through October. The lower the price for this the better. So, a lot of calls today of disgust from producers not wanting to see 20-30 cents up at this time of year. The truth is, the trade doesn’t care about crop insurance, they care about their own profits and they are taking them prior to the report, not giving the USDA and FSA a chance to surprise them.”
There has been good money made on the short side, over the last 6 weeks in the corn/soy/wheat, he says.
“The sound you hear the last two days has been the cash register ringing for the specs,” Ward says.

 

Mike

-------

 

At the open:

 

 

 

The December corn futures opened 1/4 cents lower at $3.32 per bushel.

November soybean futures opened 3 1/4 cents lower at $9.38.

December wheat futures opened 1/2 of a cent lower at $4.91.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract opened $1.10 per short ton lower at $307.80; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.17 lower at $33.28.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.49 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points lower.

 

Mike

----------

At 7:20am:

Early calls: Corn is 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 6-8 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.41 per barrel lower.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Seen lower, with eyes on Fed speak and 3rd Quarter earnings.
World Markets = Europe stocks were mixed, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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8 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 7

Man, what would happen if the current price of Organic soft white were to travel across the ticker tape board....$23.00/bushel.....lol.....have a great day!
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 7

Turnaround Wednesday for the Beans.

 

EDIT: I SPOKE TOO SOON. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 7

Patience  Gio.

 

We been on this binge a long time without much correction ----- Since June in corn -----  A lot of profit to be taken.  Who is going to wait for November when these hedge positions are so full of profit.

 

Wheat as well.  Both without much fundamental support ---- pretty much a "rumor" run.

 

Beans have been affected but the facts are we don't have any extra beans yet.  And don't plan to long term no matter what the size of the crop.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 7

Well said SW.

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 7

Wheat had the largest weekly close last week and seasonally tends to planting carrot rally. I think it's the most bullish of the 3.

Now doesn't it sound funny to call wheat a bullish market in the face of soy/corn? That's the reality we live in
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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 7

Once again, red headed step crop.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 7

I understand your point and agree somewhat on wheat.

 

But It is hard to consider any market bullish at these prices.

 

I am looking for export sales increases and futures prices to ignore the "news" releases demanding for farmers to pay end users to take their grain.

Followed by a report this week of a 16 billion bu corn crop and 15 million extra acres of soybean harvest most of which are already in storage,  revelations from a special survey of producers by USDA.

If the market ignores all that ,  we may be approaching the low in this down hill slumber party.

 

Is anyone holding 2013 crop of two load or more volumes?  I assume most of that was priced out by June.  And most of this years crop is hedged or forward contracted ------- get real,,,, ok lets say a lot of this years crop was priced early,,,, and the previous 4 month market would probably verify that.   

I don't see enough volume of harvest sales at this point to drive this thing to water table.(lower)  ---- Storage gets filled with corn for sure and some beans, as it should and sales get dribbled out on a "make a payment basis only".  

Also there is the "Wow that's a nice insurance check" issue, and very little new equipment gets bought.  Carry over income from 2013 will limit sales for tax adjustment.

What is left to drive this price down  -------(will we finally discover that eating is the cause of obesity and force those with health care to have their mouths stitched shut.)  ----------That might work and you can bet someone in DC is working on it.      Sorry nearly slipped into my Krafty political mode.

 

 

Here is how good a speculator i am,   IMO, you could buy a corn or kcwt contract at this level and probably have several opportunities to take a profit on it in the next 12 months.  But be willing to ride it 50 cents down, stay on the horse.

If selling is your spec love.  Sell some feeder cattle and have a nice ride.

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 7

I didn't mean it was a bull market, I meant that it was likely to rally short term. I wasn't clear
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