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Floor Talk October 8
At 7:05am:
Reporting on harvest activity in central Illinois Monday. Farmers in McLean County seemed to be wrapping up corn and getting ready to move on to cutting soybeans. As OptionEye mentions this morning, the farmers we talked to reported better-than-expected corn yields, but still just at their average or some below. We did talk to one farmer that says he got 20-30 bushels above his average. That farmer was south of Bloomington, IL about 45 miles.
Meanwhile, one analyst that visited to our reporter group estimated the U.S. corn harvest at 20% complete, soybeans 22% harvested. He thinks USDA will have to be around 158-160 on final corn yield average, and 42.0 bu./acre national bean yield.
Price Calls
With 10-15% new-crop corn sold already, vs. a normal 30-35% at this time of the year, he sees a lot of selling to occur in late winter, to pay March bills.
Near-term, he sees soybeans between $13.00-$13.50. By December, soybeans are expected to reach $12 per bushel. By, February, he sees soybeans dropping to $10.
We will travel through Stark County, Illinois and onto Iowa today.
Mike
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At 6:55 am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.
Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.74 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower, as investors remain nervous about the U.S. government shutdown.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks lower.
More in a minute,
Mike
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Re: Floor Talk October 8
2000-2012 nat avg is 146
If guys are coming in at or below the how do we get to 160. And yes I know some areas are coming in over. Guess what some are way under. Getting ready to shell some in a few days.
85.5 harvested at 146 is 12.4
Will it get that low. Probably not in 2013 but 12.8 print is possible in 14. Thus why screw with 4 corn at harvest.
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Re: Floor Talk October 8
Just got this from Cargill- Eddyville... 7:43 am
We have trucks backed up to the welcome center, and some trucks have likely been turned away
A truck arriving right now will take 3-4 hours to get unloaded
Please STOP sending trucks for at least two hours so we can relieve some of this congestion
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Re: Floor Talk October 8
Guess he got his wish
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Re: Floor Talk October 8
Drop the basis a buck.........that'll slow down those trucks.
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Re: Floor Talk October 8
Dumped 975,000 over the three day weekend....including 165,000 spots
and another 315,000 in a six hour session on Monday...
biggest issue right now is getting bean harvest started....until that happens they just want to haul corn with reckless abandon!
but, at times like these I remind myself "it is always better to have corn, than to not have corn"
been there, done that!
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Re: Floor Talk October 8
I like it
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Re: Floor Talk October 8
The Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange yesterday reduced the estimates to 8.5 million acres of the corn. The previous estimate was 8.7 million acres. Santa Fe and Córdoba provinces are still dry, while the Buenos Aires province has adequate moisture. The Ministry of Agriculture is projecting a 30 million tons corn crop.
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Re: Floor Talk October 8
Yields West of the Mississippi River ( IA, MN, NE, MO ) are not going to be quite as rosey as those East of the River.
Keep in mind East of the river got planted on time and they had a relatively decent year.
West the river...a Lot was planted in Late May thru June.
West is where the IA / MN "PP" and drownout acres are.
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Re: Floor Talk October 8
SO, Eddyville still paying about 9.5 cents over Z