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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk October 9, 2020 (Report Day)

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 8¢ higher at $3.95 1/2. March corn futures closed 7 1/2¢ higher at $4.02 1/4.

Nov. soybean futures settled 15 1/2¢ higher at $10.65 3/4. January soybean futures closed 17 1/4¢ lower at $10.65.

Dec. wheat futures closed 1 1/2¢ lower at $5.93 1/2.

Dec. soymeal futures closed $4.10 per short ton higher at $363.70.

 Dec. soy oil futures settled $1.01 cent higher at 34.01¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.61 per barrel lower at $40.58. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 135 points higher.

Mike

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At 11am:

 

USDA SAYS:

 

Less U.S. and world soybean stocks expected on August 31, 2021.

 

Read full USDA Report story here.

 

Trade Response

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that today’s report sets up an acreage battle for next year.

“The report has served to validate industry suspicions of tightening balance sheets in corn and soybeans, which foretells a fight for acres next spring between beans and corn. This was the most friendly WASDE report in recent memory,” Gilbertie says.

--Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that there are no major shocks reported today in October's WASDE crop report.

“When initially looking at yield and ending stocks, it only confirmed pre-report estimates. Soybean exports were increased by 75 million, helping to drop the carry out 170 million. But, the surprise was the 1.0 million acre drop in corn and a 700,000 acre reduction in beans. This added price premium, different from past crop reports. No price premium has been dialed in with beans and wheat at multiple year highs. Weather in South America, exports, currency values and final yield estimates will all determine the next market trend,” Roose says.

 

What say you?

Thanks,

 

Mike

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s and less The USDA ill release its October Supply/Demand Report at 11:00am, today

 

At 9am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $3.88 1/2. March corn futures are 2¢ higher at $3.96 1/2.

Nov. soybean futures are 9 3/4¢ higher at $10.59 3/4. January soybean futures are 9 1/4¢ lower at $10.57.

Dec. wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $6.01.

Dec. soymeal futures are $3.30 per short ton higher at $362.90.

Dec. soy oil futures are $0.59 cent higher at 33.59¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.12 per barrel lower at $41.07. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 145 points higher.

Bob Linneman, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are eyeing today's USDA report.

"It makes sense that we would see some profit-taking ahead of the USDA report this morning at 11:00. CBOT and KC wheat prices continue to climb as traders evaluate the dry conditions in the U.S. and Russia. What could this do to the world wheat balance sheet," Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, "Including the bullish September Grain Stocks report day (7 trading days ago) corn has rallied 25¢ and soybeans have rallied over 60¢. Did the trade build in all the bullish news that we could see in the report today? It will take very friendly data today to avoid profit taking after the quick run up in prices."

 

Mike

 

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17 Replies
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 9, 2020 (Report Day)

Prices should of been up a long time since the usda never came out with a PP report  for 2019 and a actual really yield report for 2019,alot of people made alot of money of the farmers last yr and farmers struggled not that any of you idiots care or have seen any hard times because of these prices.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 9, 2020 (Report Day)

Clear the tracks I think the train lost its breaks need one more star to align beanies in the teenies

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Senior Advisor

Re: Beanies in the teenies!

Smiley Very Happy

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 9, 2020 (Report Day)

"But, the surprise was the 1.0 million acre drop in corn and a 700,000 acre reduction in beans. "

How does that work?  Isn't this October?  Wasn't acreage reporting date mid-July?  Shouldn't the corn and soybean acres be pretty much concrete in August, or at least September?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 9, 2020 (Report Day)

Be careful...... youll ask yourself "How long has USDA known about the lie that was planted acres?"  What follows is does this help account for the damage that didn't happen in the 100+ mph "flood" across iowa?

We relive the "wizard of Oz" every year at usda.  When are we going to stop swelling heads in bureaucracy by kneeling at their alter?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 9, 2020 (Report Day)

Could it be like other bureaus in government, the USDA has some "Clappers, Brennans, Comeys, Stroks, Pages" that put their thumb on the scale to effect political outcome?  They get backed in a corner and eventually the truth has to come out.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Well, if anything,.....

Well, if anything, they must be "trump" Clappers, Brennans, etc. because the truth is coming out just in time for trump.

  Keep in mind that Sonny was cited by the inspectors general for mixing election politics and official business just the other day. so maybe it isn't so much the "deep state" but just plain old trump hacks changing the numbers.

    Maybe we'll just see those acres & bushels reappear after the election.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Well, if anything,.....

Since you took us for a view of the vast swamp......... The biggest regret I have over Our current President ---- Why on earth was he (or someone like him) thirty years late......   If we can fund a completely new news agency and entertainment network in response to the other networks being too far "in the tank" for corrupt politics (which unfortunately became nothing but a counter balance rather than a symbol of "how it should be done")   Why on earth couldn't we have spent less money and created an alternative political party....

Congressional and Presidential leadership has been "Packing" the federal employee hires and appointments for greatest political affect for decades..... Rewriting legislation through procedure rules and redefining terms, for the last 30+ years.... Within usda it goes back to the start of the CRP program and before that.

Congress hasn't passed or voted on a fully written law, since the day federal employees started redefining procedure.  In usda that goes back at least to the endangered species act ahead of CRP.  I was on a local committee when the CED at FSA announced to us that the employees were no longer employed by the local committee, but now by usda.  Our authority had been terminated and we were now merely an advisory committee.  Read to us from the procedure manuel, it was not part of the law that congress had passed.

Federal employees have enjoyed ever increasing power and authority for a long time.  So much that the speaker of the house feels free to make jokes about it... "We need to pass the bill in order to find out what it says"

We think that average citizens can change the law through the power of our representatives.  IMO our representatives in congress have allowed themselves to become servants to the bureaucracy that creates and dictates the details of the law.  Bureaucracy that entails employees and appointees that are nearly impossible to remove or hold responsible.   Ask yourself why was it necessary for usda to overstate acres and yields beginning with the push for green renewable energy.  Seems obvious to me, the problem for renewable energy has always been the cost.  

Whatever Sonny is accused of by the corrupt liberal bureaucracy has been made common practice by the accusers for "decades".   Would anyone be wearing a mask in DC if it weren't an election year?  No they are above the common virus, unless they can find a political use for it.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Well, if anything,.....

"No they are above the common virus, unless they can find a political use for it."   

A polite finish to the thought....... How great is the opportunity to see a new political movement?  And how short is the time to get it done?  IMO both political parties are at a crossroad--- Democrats have shoved their base out the window while accelerating in the chase for big money.....  Chinese and foreign money for the "Foundation" scheme in the 1990's and the "get out" sign to all members of faith based on a diety other than the environment.

The tech boom fixed the money problem and the Democratic party sold its influence for fixing all kinds of imaginable problems. Labor unions were replaced by causes.... so many they stumble over each other in speeches and debates(fundraisers). in the mean time the numbers who will vote for whichever tear jerking cause comes up ....might be far less than it was back when they had labor and faith and the down trodden voting.

The Republicans are a mess and have been for some time..... They can make one of them look good enough to campaign but not many wanted to vote for Romney or McCain.... or even an elderly debater like Bob Dole.  The democrats saved the Repubs by chasing every faith from Jewish to Catholic, small business owner from Restraunt to truckers, former labor union members out the window to find an uneasy rest in the "other"party.  The solid south isn't democratic any more, nor the working midwest, nor the minority if truth were known.  The only thing solid dem is 6 major metro areas.... and who knows now if urban flight has begun.  With the big investment in midwestern locations by the big chinese subsidiary's,  change is upon us.

It is hard to list all the political mistakes made in the last two election cycles, but assuming that Trumps voting base is Republican might be on the list.  And if life wasn't so easy and congress didn't pass out cash like candy we might be seeing that new "political" party forming.... might be easier to just change the name of the disorganized one.  -----