Floor Talk, September 10, 2019
At the close:
At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 7 1/4¢ higher at $3.61 1/4. March corn futures ended 7¢ higher at $3.74 1/4.
Nov. soybean futures settled 14 1/4¢ higher at $8.72. Jan. soybean futures closed 13 3/4¢ higher at $8.85 1/2.
Dec. wheat futures closed 7 3/4¢ higher at $4.81 1/4.
December soymeal futures finished $4.10 per short ton higher at $298.10. December soy oil futures closed $0.08 higher at 28.53¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.43 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points lower.
In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 5 1/4¢ higher at $3.59 1/4. March corn futures are 4 3/4¢ higher at $3.72.
Nov. soybean futures are 5 3/4¢ higher at $8.63. Jan. soybean futures are u5 1/2¢ higher at $8.77 1/2.
Dec. wheat futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $4.78 3/4.
December soymeal futures are $1.60 per short ton higher at $295.60. December soy oil futures are $0.15 higher at 28.60¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.41 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.
On Tuesday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
--Export sales of 278,200 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2019/2020 marketing year; and
--Export sales of 138,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2019/2020 marketing year; and
--Export sales of 195,750 metric tons of soybean cake and meal delivery to Mexico. Of the total 155,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year and 40,750 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
The marketing year for corn and soybeans began Sept. 1; soybean cake and meal began Oct. 1.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that at some point the funds will have to consider the late developing crops.
“The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report continued to shed light on how behind this crop continues to be. There are over nine million acres of corn that have not hit dough stage. There are over six million acres of soybeans that have not started setting pods. This data is as of September 8th. The latest forecasts do not call for a killing frost in the near term. However, it is far-fetched to think those acres have a shot at hitting trendline yields. Some will argue those acres won’t hit half of trendline. This data has not influenced the funds since the August USDA report; will it have an impact as we get deeper into September,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.
Kluis added, “The grain boat is overwhelmed with bears. It is possible that a bearish USDA report on Thursday could mark a low. The bears need to see the report so negative that it validates adding more short positions. If they don’t get what they want, then we could see some funds start to cover shorts.”
What say you?
Re: Floor Talk, September 10, 2019
The bears have taken a long walk on a short pier now.
The huge issue w the 2019 crops will prove to be Lite test weights.
It takes 2X the amount of Lite Chaffy crap to do the same old job now.
Re: Floor Talk, September 10, 2019
Another one bites the dust, bye bye John Bolton;NSA. This guy can’t even keep his house in order. Let’s see how the markets react again and again and again.
Re: When I flew back over the Midwest Sunday, most of the time we were too high to see much but...
When I flew back over the Midwest Sunday, most of the time we were too high to see much but once we dropped down to change planes and at 15,000 ft a lot of soybean fields look like they've got the measles, some of them, a bad case of acne.
When you get closer, those measles turn into dark brown drown-outs surrounded by a yellow ring of sick looking beans. Just guessing those affected areas might account for 10-20% of the planted area, not huge but not insignificant.
The thing about all those drown-out spots is that they're effectively zero yields as well. Even if the rest of the field has 40 bpa yield which is another whole issue, you start discounting production by 10-20% and things begin to look different quickly.