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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk September 10, 2020

At midsession:

 

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 5¢ higher at $3.65 1/4. March corn futures are 4¢ higher at $3.74 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 1/2¢ lower at $9.78. January soybean futures are 1¢ lower at $9.82.

Dec. wheat futures are 8 1/2¢ higher at $5.52 1/2.


Dec. soymeal futures are $0.30 per short ton higher at $318.40.

Dec. soy oil futures are $0.04 cent lower at 33.17¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.22 per barrel lower at $37.83. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 32 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:45am:

 

Wheat leads the way Thursday.

 

See the full markets story here.

 

Mike

 

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At 6:15am:

In overnight trading, the Dec. corn futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.61. March corn futures 1/2¢ higher at $3.71 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 3¢ lower at $9.75 1/4. January soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $9.80.

Dec. wheat futures are 4¢ higher at $5.47 1/2.

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.20 per short ton lower at $316.90.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.10 cent lower at 33.11¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are expected to fall.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the corn market has support, but the bulls may need more fuel, if the prices are to go higher.

“The impressive daily export sales announcements over the past few weeks coupled with drier August has given the bulls the fuel for this rally. Corn prices have managed to maintain trading within a nickel of the summer highs but have not been able to gain momentum on a push above those highs, ” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Kluis added, "The charts are flashing multiple signals of a turn in trend. The bulls have pushed momentum indicators deep into overbought territory. If the USDA report on Friday is friendly, will it be friendly enough to keep the bull camp happy."

2. USDA's Sept. Supply/Demand Estimates

On Friday, the USDA will release its September Supply/Demand and World Production Reports.
Jerry Gidel, Midland Research, says that the trade is expecting market-friendly numbers.

"This year’s season long drought and Derecho in Iowa, August dryness in parts of eastern Corn Belt & declining U.S. crop ratings has the trade expecting a decline in the size of U.S. corn & soybean crops," Gidel stated in a daily note to customers.

Gidel added that due to crop tours finding reduced soybean pod counts and less corn ears vs. 2019 checks could mean lower crop size estimates in Friday's reports.

"This suggests that the USDA’s August 181.8 and 53.3 bu U.S. corn & soy- bean yields can be reduced. The USDA resurvey of Iowa’s harvested area is likely to reveal 250-300,000 in lost corn acres from last month’s Derecho that crossed central Iowa, leaving many fields flat and un-harvestable.

The USDA will release its reports at 11:00am CT.


3. Rainfall To Continue, Temps To Warm

On Thursday, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters expected the winter storm that blanketed part of the Rockies and Central High Plains with snow to wind down.

Although, a few areas in the Central Rockies could have additional heavy snowfall today, according to the NWS.

"The cold air associated with this cold front will moderate to near normal by the weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain well below average today and Friday across much of the Central/Southern Rockies into the Central/Southern Plains but temperatures are not expected to be as below average as in past days," the NWS forecasters stated.

"The slow moving frontal boundary that is sprawled across the central U.S. will continue to provide a focus for heavy showers and thunderstorms today across the Southern Plains," the NWS forecasters stated Thursday.

Despite warming temperatures coming from the western cold front, the NWS office in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, still has a frost advisory in effect.

"Nevertheless, a Frost Advisory remains in effect for any region where some thinning in cloud cover could introduce a threat of frost. The deep polar trough that brought record cold temperatures for many moves east today. Lingering light precipitation over northwest Iowa exits with the trough later this morning, with dry conditions in its wake," according to the NWS forecasters.

 

Marketeye

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12 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 10, 2020

Corn didn`t bust through the $3.63 ceiling, so I suppose that puts us into a holding pattern.  David Kruse is saying corn yield is hurt more than the trade thinks post Pro Farmer Tour, it`s probably a bushel off the national yield if that in the scheme of things.

Twitter is saying "Joni is in trouble because of ethanol" .  However, her opponent Greenfield talks about "not taking a dime" and "paying for college and buying one beer Friday night" and "Joni not caaaasterating any pigs" .  I haven`t heard any of the attack ads focusing on ethanol other than "Joni approved biiig oil getting Covid money like every other industry".

https://twitter.com/sarah_k_mock/status/1303702281213194240

We live in a wild time where Joni Ernst's seat is up for grabs because her Ethanol game is ambiguous. Wild.
Ethanol and Politics 2020
Getting the word ethanol into the next aid package also might become a tipping scale in the Iowa U.S. Senate race. Ethanol also is tied to international politics and the presidential race as well....
dtnpf.com
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 10, 2020

Kind of seems like that we should not need to worry about Ethanol demand if it is cheaper than gas....free market and all?

Marketeye, it seems kind of amazing that no one is reporting the very widespread frost damage in the north. Millions of acres frosted before black layer, or with green leaves on the beans, is just not very good for yield potential....how about some pics from your reporters up that way?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 10, 2020

Farmers are telling my sources that the corn crop was made. But, I would like to see further evidence of this myself.

 

THanks,

 

Mike

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 10, 2020

That is kind of hard to believe considering the fact that alot of ND was planted later than optimum. Our friends up that way suggest milk line was only 50% down the kernel, maybe 67%, that is a great way to have terrible quality. I guess it doesn't matter until it does as Hobby would say.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 10, 2020

How about a sunflower shortage?

Lots of sunflowers in the frost/freeze area.

Visited with a guy with 4000 acres of them that weren't ready for a freeze. 

Said the confectioners were defiantly hurt badly. Thought the oil ones were a little more frost resistant.

Western South Dakota.

Lots of them in North Dakota.

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Senior Advisor

Re: It's all just too precious...

It's all just too precious, and we don't know yet how it'll all play out but you can only imagine the consternation among trump's oil industry handlers when trump was forced to backtrack on those exemptions.  Trump, Pruitt, and now Wheeler thought that they were going to be able to just gut the RFS, deal a fatal blow to renewable fuels, and trump's big dumb farmers were just going to along with anything he said.  

  It turns out that not all those farmers might not be quite so dumb after all and are finally waking up to the "con" that's been played on them.

  The question is, will enough of them understand that anything trump promises six weeks before the election is just that, an empty promise.  If trump wins, he can reverse his order as easily as he tells another lie, and if he loses he still has three months to reverse his order since it won't matter to him anyhow.  Either way, he & Big Oil win, and the corn farmers lose.

   And Ernst thought she would hitch a ride on the trump train and just ride along wherever it was going.  She should have known trump was going to drive that train right off the cliff given that's all he has ever done. She deserves what's coming to her and I hope she gets it.  She's no friend to the farmer, that's for sure.

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Honored Advisor

Tell the whole story

This administration inherited the rules(law) for the exemptions written by a demorat congress and previous administration. The letter of the law is being misapplied. 

Sleepy Joe Biden was in the thick of the passage of this thing back then. Put some blame where it belongs.

BTW where is your precious liberal House leader? You know it's been crickets out of her, guess she was at the hair dressers?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 10, 2020

TIME, I just got back from the Dakotas. The crop, at least along 90 and 94 was further along than what it is here in the eastern belt. Most beans looked nearly ready and corn "looked" black layered. The corn crop east of Des Moines, Iowa all the way to the Mississippi river along I-80 is some of the worst corn I have ever seen. Quality is going to be a big deal this year. I really think this year will be a good year to throw corn in the bin and wait. Good quality corn will come at a premium in places. 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Blame Biden and the Democrats, that's ridiculous.

Blame Biden and the Democrats for the RFS language?  That ridiculous, the RFS was written in 2005 and amended in 2007 by a Republican President, Republican Congress and Republican Senate, with the help of any number of farm-state Republican Senators and Congressmen.

  If you don't like the way the RFS was written don't blame Biden or the Democrats.