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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, September 10, 2021 (REPORT DAY)

USDA SAYS:

U.S. 2021/22 CROP PRODUCTION

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn production at 14.99 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 14.9 billion and the previous estimate of 14.75 billion bushels.

The U.S. corn yield average was pegged at 176.3 bushels per acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 175 bushels per acre and the USDA’s previous estimate of 174.6.

For soybeans, the USDA pegged output at 4.37 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 4.3 billion and the government's August estimate of 4.33.

For yield, the soybean average is pegged at 50.6 bu./acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 50.4 bu./acre and the government’s previous estimate of 50.0.


2020/2021 U.S. ENDING STOCKS

For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. old-crop ending stocks at 1.18 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.16 billion bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 1.11 billion.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 175 million bushels vs. the August estimate of 160 million bushels. The trade expected the USDA to print 166 million bushels today.


2021/2022 U.S. Ending Stocks

For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. new-crop ending stocks at 1.40 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.3 billion bushels and the August estimate of 1.24 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 185 million bushels vs. the trade that expected the USDA to print 190 million bushels today. In August, the USDA's estimate was 155 million.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 615 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 616 million and compared with the August estimate of 627 million bushels.

2021/2022 World Ending Stocks
On Friday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 297.6 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 286.0 mmt. and the USDA’s August estimate of 284.0 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 98.9 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 96.8 mmt. and the USDA’s August estimate of 96.2 mmt.

For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 283.2 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 279.0 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 279.1 mmt.


2020/2021 WORLD CROP PRODUCTION

On Thursday, the USDA pegged the 2020/2021 Brazilian soybean production at 137.0 mmt vs. the USDA’s estimate last month of 137.0 mmt.

For corn, Brazil’s output is seen at 87.0 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 92.0 mmt. and the USDA’s July estimate of 93.0 mmt.

For Argentina’s soybean output, the USDA pegged its crop at 46.0 mmt. vs. the USDA’s July estimate of 46.5 mmt.

Argentina’s 2020/2021 corn crop is pegged at 48.5 mmt vs. the USDA’s previous estimate of 48.5 mmt.

 

U.S. 2021/2022 Acreage
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2021 corn acreage at 86.0 million vs. the trade's expectation of 85.0 and the NASS August estimate of 84.4 million.

For soybeans, the U.S. 2021 acreage is pegged at 86.4 million vs. the trade's expectation of 86.7 and the NASS's August estimate of 86.7 million.

TRADE REACTION

PJ Quaid, Independent trader, says that the trade pretty much baked in these numbers.  

 
"China numbers are bearish.  USDA raised China's stocks and lowered its usage. All eyes now on South American weather .Markers will be choppy until for the rest of the month when we have the quarterly numbers.  There are a lot of ridiculous basis numbers trading all over the country." 

 

Mike

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At the open:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 1¢ higher at $5.11. March futures are 1/2¢ higher at $5.19 3/4. May corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $5.24.

November soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $12.72.

Jan. soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $12.79. March soybean futures are 3/4¢ higher at $12.84.

Dec. wheat futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $6.88.

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.00 per short ton higher at $338.90.

Dec. soy oil futures are $0.29 lower at 55.90¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 1.67 higher (+2.45%) at $69.81. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 167 points higher (+0.48%) at 35,037 points.

On Friday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Bob Linneman, Kluis Advisors, says that grain prices are at multi-week lows as we head into the September USDA report today.

“Traders are expecting yield increases in both corn and soybeans in addition to increases in acreage. Total production for corn is expected to be just shy of 15 billion bushels, while soybean production is expected to be near 4.4 billion bushels. Estimates ahead of the report are also expecting carryout to increase for corn and soybeans, since exports have not held the pace needed to hit the USDA target," Linneman stated in a note to customers.

Linneman added, "With the charts showing signs of a possible low, the bulls would love to see a bearish report today with prices closing higher by the end of the day."


Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows decent demand figures for corn.

Corn= 905,800 metric tons (mmt.) vs. the trade expectations of 600,000-1.20 mmt.

Soybeans= 1.47 mmt. vs. the trade's expectation of 1.00-1.60mmt.

Wheat= 295,300 mt. vs. the trade's expectation of 200,000-450,000mt.

Soybean meal= 109,000 mt. vs. the trade's expectation of 75,000-300,000mt.

 

Mike

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6 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 10, 2021 (REPORT DAY)

Report day……. Yippie-Ki-O

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cborman11
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, September 10, 2021 (REPORT DAY)

Report day aka the big lie!

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 10, 2021 (REPORT DAY)

Always assumed that China is in a stocks building phase but a little surprised they showed that.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 10, 2021 (REPORT DAY)

Agree with SD, kind of surprised they think they know enough to even guess.

btw....if anyone thinks they "mistakenly" posted the acreage numbers earlier this week....   🙂

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 10, 2021 (REPORT DAY)

Perhaps 14 billion before talking 15 on corn?

On beans I don't even know what ridiculous high number they project. 

Seems like USDA needs to get Out and see some ground before ever projecting anything again. 

But Hey,  If You can scare em into selling cheap... Take they're darn money. 

 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 10, 2021 (REPORT DAY)

Like  the  $140+  fed  cattle  predictions  I  see  on  this  site - FREE  beer TOMORROW  -  -  - 

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