Floor Talk September 10

[marketeye]

Do you want to take a position on corn, wheat or soybeans without buying a futures contract? This Agriculture.com story spells out how you can do it. I thought you all might find this interesting.

Here's the full story.

Mike

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After the close:

USDA says that 15% of the U.S. corn crop has been harvested, compared to just 5% a year ago and a 5% five-year averge.

Separately, it was reported today that Brazilian farmers have sold ahead 43% of their 2013 crop.

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract settled 16 1/4 cents lower at $7.83. Nov. soybean futures contract finished 18 cents lower at $17.18. Dec. wheat futures settled 15 1/4 cents lower at $8.89 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.10 lower at $56.56. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $7.50 per short ton lower at $519.40.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.16 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points lower.

One analyst says today's market was just a lot of positioning and posturing ahead of the USDA crop report Wednesday 7;30 a.m. central time.

"We have seen the grains up and down two or three different times since the overnight opening. Longs are fat with profits so rallies give them a chance to sell and pull out profits and cut risk prior the report while short held positions use the breaks to cover or buy and trim their risk prior the report. Though today offers a chance to balance risk for many Tuesday will be the last chance for speculators to get positioned long prior what is expected to be a potentially bullish report. One pre report poll of  brokerage industry analysts  expects a 350 million bushel cut in corn production  and  35 m.b. cut in beans due to the recent drought. Ending stocks inventories are expected to be lower."

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 1/2 cents lower at $7.94. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 3 1/2 cents lower at $17.32 3/4. Dec. wheat futures are trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $9.02 1/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.10 higher at $56.76. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.10 per short ton lower at $524.80. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.10 higher at $56.76.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.06 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 1 point lower.

Mike

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At 10:30am:

Corn dips lower, soybeans and wheat are barely higher Monday. One analyst says that we could see a lot of people headed towards the sidelines this week, ahead of USDA's Report Wednesday.

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3 3/4 cents higher at $8.02. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $17.38. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $9.05 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.62 lower at $56.76. The Oct. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.20 per short ton lower at $528.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.62 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 2 points lower.

Mike

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At 7:40am:

Tom, White, FutureRoad.net analyst and CME Group corn pit trader, says that technically the corn market has a bullish view.

"The market traded back and forth last week but basically closed unchanged.  As we mentioned in the last several reviews, momentum indicators are lacking on the longer-term charts; short-term charts remain range bound.  But we still generally favor the view that the market is consolidating as part of a fourth wave before it makes another move higher.  We are still making lower RSI values but at higher closing prices.  Unless we make lower lows on the dailies to confirm lower RSI values, the potential exists for positive reversals to continue to form which reinforces the bullish view.  Also, we are still holding above key moving average levels (e.g. 34-period moving average )
In moving into this week, we still could continue to see back and forth trade and will take it day by day.  The end of day pattern on Friday did not leave a convincing bias in either direction for Monday.  But the report on Wednesday could tell all," he says.

Mike

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At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.22 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, as China data weighs.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, Europe's are lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[Palouser]

If one has a broader view of the market than a floor trader, like I do, then right now it's like looking out on the Grand Canyon. This market is big, mysterious and ominous - in a good way. 😉  I don't care what happens this week, but the next four months are likely to be historic. I'm not quite ready to buckle up, pick a time and jump out of the plane with a trick chute to find a spot but, I'm glued to the scene.

[marketeye]

Palouser,

I like the descriptive approach of explaining your risk management plan. As long as it works for you, that is all that matters, right? Speaking of parachuting, I witnessed some Sunday. I was traveling through western Illinois, on Interstate's 90, 39, and 88 ( my same route as last weekend) and enjoyed the air show. I was keeping one eye out for harvest activity. In Illinois, I saw maybe one combine in the field, and a lot of other ones in the yard. In Iowa, I didn't see a lot of harvesting but I did see a handful of cornfields being picked and one soybean field being harvested.

I also had one Iowa farmer call me, Saturday, and report that he was harvesting a field and getting better yields than he expected. He is more optimistic that he can fill his contracts. But, it's early, he says.

Mike

[giolucas]

I wish I can jump out of a plane to wake up.   This market is like watching paint dry.  I really do not think for long though.  We should see some fireworks these next few days.

[Farmerjoe79]

Better then expected is all your going to hear this year. I expected 10 and got 15 so it's better then expected. What was that Iowa farmer thinking it was going to yield.

[marketeye]

giolucas,

I agree. Folks should not be lulled to sleep.

Mike

[marketeye]

Farmerjoe79,

Below 100 was one figure he had in mind. But, I get your point and agree. "Better than expected" takes on a different meanin, this year.

Mike

[c-x-1]

love that word, "lull" think that is precisely what the mkt & talking heads try to do to herd.

perhaps we look at it more statistically, so to speak, w/ corn. USDA came down 12+% in Jul, 15+% - Aug.

mathematicians community wide, what are the probabilities USDA comes down 7.5%+ for Sep?

[Mizzou_Tiger]

yields

has corn on the run today..........

funny basis is telling a different story............

doesn't look like we need to worry about ethanol.........

plenty of good corn to go around...........whats the big deal.........right.........gring baby grind.........

strange to have grain buyers calling in the middle of harvest looking for some inventory...........they musta missed the better than expected memo............

o well, the market knows best.........if you are scared, SELL NOW cause its likely going to get violent from here on out...........

[c-x-1]

mighta already done that (sold)