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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk September 11, 2020 (Report Day)

The USDA Report is out!

 

See what it says here.

 

Trade Response:

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that today’s report pretty much met expectations with the notable exception of no revisions in Chinese imports of either corn or soybeans.

“However, increased exports were the main catalyst for the tightening of the soybean balance sheet, which seems to be providing some support for soybeans this afternoon. Globally we will use more corn than we produce, which will likely put the corn bears on the defensive moving forward,” Gilbertie says.

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that today's reports were neutral to maybe a bit bearish, but you would not think so looking at the trade reaction..

“The soybeans are really flying. Not sure if it is China demand related or if the trade expects less beans than what USDA shows in this report in the coming production estimates, but beans are on the way to 10.00 and higher. Corn is struggling to follow but can't break due to the beans. The production and ending stocks estimates could be considered a little negative in Corn. Wheat just kind of mixed after a neutral report," Scoville says.

--Peter J. Meyer, S&P Global Platts, head of grain and oilseed analytics, says that all in all, today's USDA numbers have very little in the way of surprises as pre-report estimates and the WASDE were fairly close.

“Based on the market reaction in corn it would appear that all the changes in the WASDE this month had already been priced in. Soybeans were a bit of a better market story, although the carry out was expected,” Meyer says.

 

WHAT SAY YOU?

 

Mike

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Today, the USDA Supply/Demand and WASDE Reports to be released at 11:00am CT

---------------

 

At 8:45am:

 

Here's the market open for Friday.

 

Soybeans inch toward the $10 market.

 

 

Mike

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1. Ag markets seen strong, ahead of USDA

In overnight trading, the Dec. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.67 1/4. March corn futures 1 3/4¢ higher at $3.76 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 7 3/4¢ higher at $9.85 1/4. January soybean futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $9.89.

Dec. wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $5.50 1/2.

Dec. soymeal futures are $2.50 per short ton higher at $320.00.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.25 cent higher at 33.45¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are expected to fall.

 

2. USDA's Sept. Supply/Demand Estimates

On Friday, the USDA will release its September Supply/Demand and World Production Reports.

For the U.S., the USDA is expected to lower the corn and soybean yields, due to inclement weather in July and August.

The trade sees the USDA pegging the U.S. corn average yield at 178 bushels per acre vs. the USDA's August estimate of 181.8 bu./acre.

The U.S. total corn production is seen falling from 15.27 billion bushels in August to 14.8 billion.

For soybeans, the U.S. average yield is expected to be estimated at 51.8 vs. the August estimate of 53.3 bushels per acre.

For 2020/2021 production, the trade sees the USDA pegging the soybean output at 4.2 billion bushels vs. the August estimate of 4.42 billion.

The USDA resurvey of Iowa’s harvested area is likely to reveal 250-300,000 in lost corn acres from last month’s Derecho that crossed central Iowa, leaving many fields flat and un-harvestable.

The USDA will release its reports at 11:00am CT.

3. Flash Flooding In the Corn Belt

On Friday, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters expected an upper-level low over the Northern/Central Rockies to aid in drawing a plume of moisture northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday into Saturday.

Isolated/scattered flash flooding is possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight, according to the NWS.

"Two main rounds of precipitation are expected across the region. (1)Through the day, moderate to heavy rain from Missouri into Iowa. (2)Thunderstorms overnight in northeast Missouri, eastern Iowa, western Illinois.

"The upper-level dynamics associated with the upper-level low will aid in producing rain with embedded thunderstorms over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Upper Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday," the NWS forecasters stated in a Friday morning weather outlook.

Excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley is expected. "The rain associated with the system will be heavy enough to produce localized to scattered areas of flash flooding over the region on Friday into Saturday morning. The rain will move into the Upper Great Lakes later on Saturday into Sunday," the NWS forecasters stated.

Temperatures associated withthe upper-level low will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over the Plains and parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley that will moderate slowly, according to the NWS.

 

Marketeye

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12 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11, 2020 (Report Day)

"DTN Update:With soybeans trading higher before the USDA report, ADM Des Moines would pay $9.70/bu for delivery by Sat 9/12! This is a limited time offer"

Just got this text...

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11, 2020 (Report Day)

Exports and short supply ahead of harvest is driving markets now - we will see if that is true next week. 

Usda has those record projections to defend - the question is “does the market  move away from exports to projections for more than a day?”

what would markets be doing if the media’s population wasn’t self destructive — I don’t think it makes any difference in markets but it should be concerning to have 40% of the worlds grain production in the hands of an unreliable, irrational population that takes no responsibility for their decisions.  While they make very bad decisions. 

We won’t survive this way.  It will change.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11, 2020 (Report Day)

"S:FHR Renewables M:Menlo - $3.60 for bushels delivered by the 19th call 641-524-5612 to contract"

Just got this one from e plant.

Been drizzly or rainy for 3 days going on 4. 

I can't load in wet conditions and get it out of the trailer if i load on a damp/wet hopper. They have to be very hand to mouth at ADM and the e plant.

BTW that's a 7 cent push over posted price at e plant

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11, 2020 (Report Day)

S: M:Afton
Crn SEP $3.35 +3.75
Crn OCT-NOV $3.33 +3.75
Bns SEP $9.09 +8.25
Bns OCT-NOV $9.09 +8.25

Local coop bid. @ 9:30

Lot of money difference 

Pays to have a truck and a few bin bottoms to clean out.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11, 2020 (Report Day)

"Gavilon Saturday hours - we will be open tomorrow from 9 am to 2 pm to take BEANS only."

Now just got this one...

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11, 2020 (Report Day)

Market marches on and up. Dragging usda kicking and screaming. 

 

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11, 2020 (Report Day)

Well it’s been quite awhile since we seen the markets react like this. Keep up the good work fellas.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11, 2020 (Report Day)

As usual, everyone kind of misses the big story, Sept beans up 40 at one point. Now, what kind of idiot stayed short in to the last trading day going in to a gov report? Only commercials can even hold positions at this point on the short side. It is kind of like crude oil going negative, a "wow that market is really broken kind of moment" :-0

Kind of the same thing in Sept corn, getting to within 3 cents of Dec, thus negative carry in a big way, when we are supposed to have +2Bil bu in storage? Some funny business going on in the paper trail somewhere. But, why would the coms stay short this late in the game and then get it cramed down their throat? Just makes a guy wonder is all. The last 2 days in Sept corn, up 15 cents, all on ONLY 473 contracts trading, barely more than 2 mil bushels....well, some young kid at a coop somewhere just got a real education. :-)

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QRe: Floor Talk September 11, 2020 (Report Day)

Don't miss the "special statement"

Part of the report. It states that it is as of September 1 and that the freeze damage is not accounted for in this report and will be adjusted for in later reports.

Kind of a biggie there and a warning for the bears in the crowd. Also only accounted for a portion of the corn acres likely to be destroyed because of wind damage.

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