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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk September 11 (Report Day)

At the close:

The December corn futures closed 4 3/4 cents lower at $3.41.

 

November soybean futures ended 12 1/4 cents lower at $9.81.

 

December wheat futures finished 10 1/4 cents lower at $5.09.

 

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract closed $8.00 per short ton lower at $329.20; Dec. soybean oil futures finished $0.12 lower at $31.71.

In the outside markets, the crude oil traded $0.96 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The December corn futures are trading 6 cents lower at $3.339, hitting as low as $3.33.

 

November soybean futures are trading 16 cents lower at $9.77, as low as $9.74.

 

December wheat futures are 13 1/2 cents lower at $5.06.

 

Mike

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USDA/WASDE Report Thursday says: (BEARISH>>>>>>>>>>)

In its report, the USDA  pegged the U.S. 2014 corn yield at 171.1 bushels per acre, compared to the average analyst estimate of 170.7 bushels per acre and the USDA's August estimate of 167.4 bu./acre.
If the yield is realized, it would mean a total production of 14.4 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the USDA sees the 2014 U.S. yield averaging 46.6 bu./acre, vs. the average analysts estimate of 46.3 bu./acre, and the USDA's August estimate of 45.4 bu./acre.
On Thursday, the USDA pegged U.S. total production at 3.9 billion bushels.
ENDING STOCKS
Meanwhile, the USDA estimates the 2014/15 U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.002 billion bushels, compared to the average analysts estimate of 2.012 billion and the USDA's estimate last month of 1.808 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the USDA sees the U.S. 2014/15 ending stocks at 475 million bushels, vs. the average analysts estimate of 453 million and the USDA's August estimate of 430 million.

 

TRADE REACTION:

--Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Director of Grains and Energy sums up the report like this: "Corn yield was the most bearish coming in 4.3 bushels/acre over last month. This was a full bushel above trade expectations. Production increased by 363 million bushels, then it was offset by a usage increase of 170 million bushels. Carryout obviously bearish above 2 billion bushels.
 
Soybeans were more in line with trade expectations, raising the yield by 1.2 bushels/acre to 46.6 bpa. This is a production increase of 97 million bushels, offset partially by an increase in usage of 42 million bushels. Carryout was under 500 million bushels at 475 million bushels.
 
This keeps the trend in the grain complex down in my view. The trade will view these figures as just another stair step to another yield increase in the October report. There is strong history to suggest this will happen, and now that history gets more relevant with this increase in the September report," Ward says.
 

--A monstrous crop and the prices are getting hit hard, Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities trader.

 

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says the reports are negative on the production side any way.  "The markets have been under pressure since the report release and the selling is likely to continue."

--

 

Mike

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At the open:

 

The December corn futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $3.43.

 

November soybean futures are trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $9.94.

 

December wheat futures are 2 3/4 cents lower at $5.17.

 

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract traded $1.80 per short ton lower at $335.40; Dec. soybean oil futures traded $0.08 higher at $31.91.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil dropped $0.82 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 58 points lower.

 

Mike

-------

At 8:05am:

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

 

  • Export sales of 240,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2014/2015 marketing year; and
  • Export sales of 210,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2014/2015 marketing year; and
  • Optional origin sales of 360,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2014/2015 marketing year.  An optional origin contract provides that the origin of the commodity may be the U.S. or one or more other exporting countries.

Mike

----------------

At 8am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Thursday show that soybeans beat expectations:
Wheat=  690,200 metric tons  vs. the trade's expectations of between 150,000-500,000  metric tons.



 

Corn= 695,500 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of between 450,000-650,000 metric tons.

 



Soybeans= 1.054 million metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of between 600,000-1,100,000 metric tons.

 

mike

--------

At 6:25am:

Early calls: Corn is 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower. The WASDE Report will be released at 11am CT.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.77 per barrel lower.
Dollar = Lower
Wall Street = Seen lower as Obama vows to fight ISIS terrorist group.
World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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13 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11 (Report Day)

I don't know about you guys - but for a night before the report - I slept like a baby !!!  woke up every 2 hours crying - lol

Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11 (Report Day)

I think you need to look again. You stated
Beans exceeded trade export guess, no
It did not, but corn and wheat did.
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11 (Report Day)

Ecin, last night was a good night's sleep. My bad night was after the first flood...two floods ago, two weeks ago.

 

The wife handed me the crop insurance papers with the #'s this ----- (think female cat) signed up for last winter.

 

IF there is frost and maturity issues combined with harvest delays because of mud and maturity issues, storage problems and crop size will errode. 

 

Bean pipeline is absolutely empty. Livestock still needs Fed daily. Seems to be several crushers with +$3.50 Nov bids out there here in oink and cluck country. Anybody close to one of them? Any lines at the unload?

 

Five minutes till we know it's all right and there is aplenty to go around.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11 (Report Day)

elcheapo,

 

You're right. The weekly export sales were disappointing.

 

Mike

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 11 (Report Day)

I'm not seeing anything bullish either move along.

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11 (Report Day)

Disappointing???
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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 11 (Report Day)

K, I was looking at the long term chart on Dec Corn.   I think $3.25 well hold it.....(if you could see me I have my fingers crossed and my eyes, legs, ,,,honestly $3.25,,,how much cheaper should it go??  

 

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11 (Report Day)

--------------------------------------------------------------    

MARKET COMMENTARY September 11, 2014

 

By Raymond Jenkins

 

There is definitely a different pattern of phone traffic when crop reports are released when corn is $6-8 a bushel as compared to corn futures being under $4. To be honest, the phones were pretty quiet after the report numbers were released, which tells me that folks were probably expecting these kind of numbers, but maybe what it really tells me is that many farmers now have smart phones and can “read right along” as the numbers are released.

 

Corn futures were trading down 3-4 cents prior to the 11AM release of information, then got as low as 10 cents under last night’s close before posting a recovery into the close that has corn down about 4 cents in most slots. I would call that a reasonably good reaction to a report with some bearish numbers.

 

The next step in this process will be the eventual changes to be made in planting and harvested corn acres, something which may start to happen in the October report. If the current thinking on those numbers were applied to today’s grid, we could see ending stocks trimmed below the 2 billion bushel mark----but we also need to recognize that the demand sector has been showing some gains---gains which need to happen to keep that carryout from growing. There was little mention about DDG’s today, but the lack of export activity means they have to compete for space in the US feed bunk, and that means getting them priced at or below corn, so keep an eye out for the relative values of DDG’s and corn as we work through the harvest cycle this year.

 

SEPTEMBER 11------I remember exactly where I was the day Kennedy was shot, and I also remember exactly where I was when a co-worker called to tell me about a plane hitting the World Trade Center in 2001. Some things you just never forget, nor should we.

I think September 11, 2001 was the day a lot of realized our world was not nearly as safe as we had come to believe.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 11 (Report Day)

Same here cat!
Seems like if corn and wheat are higher than
Even the hugest estimate, is "no news"

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