cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, September 12, 2019 (Report Day)

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.67 1/4. March corn futures finished 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.79 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures closed 29¢ higher at $8.95 3/4. Jan. soybean futures closed 28 1/2¢ higher at $9.09.

Dec. wheat futures closed 6 1/4¢ higher at $4.83 1/2.



December soymeal futures finished $6.60 per short ton higher at $301.30.

 December soy oil futures closed $0.33 higher at 29.16¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.66 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 148 points higher.

 

Mike

----------

At 11:20am:

USDA keeps the U.S. corn, soybean planted and harvested acreage unchanged.

Corn Planted= 90.0 million   Corn Harvested= 82.0 million

Soybean Planted= 76.7 million     Soybean Harvested=  75.9 million

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

--------

At 11:10am:

USDA SAYS:

U.S. Production

For corn, the USDA pegged this year’s production at 13.799 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 13.5 billion and its August estimate of 13.9 billion bushels.

On yield, the USDA estimated the corn crop averaging 168.2 bushels per acre vs. the avg. trade estimate of 166.7 bu./acre and the government’s August estimate of 169.5.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean output at 3.63 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 3.57 billion bushels and its August estimate of 3.68 billion.

Also, the USDA sees the U.S. crop averaging 47.9 bu./acre vs. the avg. trade estimate of 47.2 bu./acre and its August estimate of 48.5.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2018/19

For old crop corn stocks, the USDA pegged U.S. stockpiles at 2.44 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 2.39 billion bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 2.36 billion.

For soybeans, U.S. ending stocks are estimated at 1.00 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 1.05 billion bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 1.07 billion bushels.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2019/20

Looking ahead to the end of the next marketing year, the USDA pegged U.S. corn stocks at 2.19 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 1.93 billion bushels and the August estimate of 2.18 billion.

For soybeans, U.S. new-crop ending stocks are pegged at 640 million bushels vs. the trade’s avg. estimate of 660 million and the USDA’s August estimate of 755 million bushels.

TRADE RESPONSE

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that today’s USDA/WASDE numbers, themselves, are maybe a little bearish, when compared to expectations.

“But, they are not price-negative to the point that we are never going to have an uptick again. I think yields will eventually come down more, as they do not jive with what I am hearing from the country. Beans maybe a lot more, corn should come down more and maybe into the lower 160’s. The soybean ending stocks are down into a realistic area, corn ending stocks disappointing.

Scoville added, “There was a positive reaction to the reports and I am hoping for a strong close. We have already factored in these kinds of numbers from the August reports. So now, we can rally a bit. Might still go lower at harvest but for now I think a short term pop is in order if not more,” Scoville says.

 

Mike

------------

At 10:18am:

If you missed it earlier, on Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report shows strong soybean figures.

Corn= 498,100 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 400,000-850,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 1.17 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000-1.2 mmt.

Wheat= 602,700 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000-600,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 119,000 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000-350,000 mt.

Mike

---------

At 8:51am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.60 3/4. March corn futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.73.

Nov. soybean futures are 7b 1/2¢ higher at $8.73 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $8.88.

Dec. wheat futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $4.78 1/2.



December soymeal futures are $1.80 per short ton higher at $296.50.

 December soy oil futures are $0.20 higher at 29.03¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.48 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points higher.

 

 

Mike

 

0 Kudos
8 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 12, 2019 (Report Day)

Hang on to your........

You know what usually happens on report day.

But hey, could this time be different?

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 12, 2019 (Report Day)

Rain the past few days, now sun and 80’s in the 10 day forecast, perfect recipe for the late planted crops. Look out below!

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re:Strong bean exports sales, you bet.....

Strong bean export sales, you bet, people are getting their soybean needs bought while the price is good and before the rest of the market figures out the truth of this year's bean crop.

  Last week, my bean broker called to say they had dropped  bean basis back from 75 cents to 55 cents and were nosing around for some beans to buy.

  What's that tell you.

Honored Advisor

Re: Re:Strong bean exports sales, you bet.....

Trying to get a bid from Cargill, wichita this week ...... seemed anxious     They upped their bid  fairly quickly.

They will have inventory soon if they get any bought.......early beans are shutting down out west ks......seems early... it has been dry and hot.   Leaves turning unless they had a load of water.  

Eastern Ks had the water wonder if they will be any good.... they were planted late.

But I was suprised that beans in northern Missouri are so far along..... Is that a sign of big yields or is it shut down to preserve what we got.??

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Re:Strong bean exports sales, you bet.....

Good export sales in beans continue for those of us that don't read the press releases

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 12, 2019 (Report Day)


@marketeye wrote:

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.67 1/4. March corn futures finished 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.79 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures closed 29¢ higher at $8.95 3/4. Jan. soybean futures closed 28 1/2¢ higher at $9.09.

Dec. wheat futures closed 6 1/4¢ higher at $4.83 1/2.



December soymeal futures finished $6.60 per short ton higher at $301.30.

 December soy oil futures closed $0.33 higher at 29.16¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.66 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 148 points higher.

 

Mike

----------

At 11:20am:

USDA keeps the U.S. corn, soybean planted and harvested acreage unchanged.

Corn Planted= 90.0 million   Corn Harvested= 82.0 million

Soybean Planted= 76.7 million     Soybean Harvested=  75.9 million

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

--------

At 11:10am:

USDA SAYS:

U.S. Production

For corn, the USDA pegged this year’s production at 13.799 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 13.5 billion and its August estimate of 13.9 billion bushels.

On yield, the USDA estimated the corn crop averaging 168.2 bushels per acre vs. the avg. trade estimate of 166.7 bu./acre and the government’s August estimate of 169.5.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean output at 3.63 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 3.57 billion bushels and its August estimate of 3.68 billion.

Also, the USDA sees the U.S. crop averaging 47.9 bu./acre vs. the avg. trade estimate of 47.2 bu./acre and its August estimate of 48.5.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2018/19

For old crop corn stocks, the USDA pegged U.S. stockpiles at 2.44 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 2.39 billion bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 2.36 billion.

For soybeans, U.S. ending stocks are estimated at 1.00 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 1.05 billion bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 1.07 billion bushels.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2019/20

Looking ahead to the end of the next marketing year, the USDA pegged U.S. corn stocks at 2.19 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 1.93 billion bushels and the August estimate of 2.18 billion.

For soybeans, U.S. new-crop ending stocks are pegged at 640 million bushels vs. the trade’s avg. estimate of 660 million and the USDA’s August estimate of 755 million bushels.

TRADE RESPONSE

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that today’s USDA/WASDE numbers, themselves, are maybe a little bearish, when compared to expectations.

“But, they are not price-negative to the point that we are never going to have an uptick again. I think yields will eventually come down more, as they do not jive with what I am hearing from the country. Beans maybe a lot more, corn should come down more and maybe into the lower 160’s. The soybean ending stocks are down into a realistic area, corn ending stocks disappointing.

Scoville added, “There was a positive reaction to the reports and I am hoping for a strong close. We have already factored in these kinds of numbers from the August reports. So now, we can rally a bit. Might still go lower at harvest but for now I think a short term pop is in order if not more,” Scoville says.

 

Mike

------------

At 10:18am:

If you missed it earlier, on Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report shows strong soybean figures.

Corn= 498,100 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 400,000-850,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 1.17 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000-1.2 mmt.

Wheat= 602,700 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000-600,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 119,000 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000-350,000 mt.

Mike

---------

At 8:51am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.60 3/4. March corn futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.73.

Nov. soybean futures are 7b 1/2¢ higher at $8.73 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $8.88.

Dec. wheat futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $4.78 1/2.



December soymeal futures are $1.80 per short ton higher at $296.50.

 December soy oil futures are $0.20 higher at 29.03¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.48 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points higher.

 

 

Mike

 


A pretty Impressive day for grains.   MO. 

I figure today confirms a record Up for grains over the next 90 days.  We'll See. 

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Re:Strong bean exports sales, you bet.....

Tells me our local basis at-1.35 is out of whack. Especially at the local branch of the big coop from moundridge. Especially after they bragged up the market opportunity they could bring due to their size. Have not seen it yet 

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Re:Strong bean exports sales, you bet.....

Should have been limit up.!? This is the market suppressing the facts.  Contain and maintain until we follow the light. Harvest coming who cares how small or large, already talk about SA planting. Record crop great weather until the next cat bounce.  Don’t count out the insurance companies taking prices soon.  Big correction coming and needed, if we ever see it, that’s another story.