Floor Talk September 12 (Report Day)

[unlgrad]

Sonny is the head guy, but could you imagine the chaos it would create if he questioned every single report that came out.  Basically calling your employees liars, that will make things worse than it is now.  If the report is right, which I highly doubt it, we are in big trouble price wise for the next year.  Needless to say, I am not protected enough.  I guess we will see where the lows will be printed.

[elcheapo]

unl....thought I posted something, but it didn't come up !

I guess I look at it this way, just think of all the chaos the reports make on my stomach and everyone elses, so maybe sonney should

ask some questions.

IF those numbers are right, it's going to be a very long winter, and a hard candy Christmas.

from talking to the fellows here, and we are strictly dryland.....and we are to get an average around 169 or so, i'm told that

insurance is saying that the corn is about 50 bu an acre......so you are going to need someone else to have 285 bu

corn....but 285 bu corn is dang good corn......does anyone out there have it ????

even worse, the silage equipment is busy, so if it does not produce grain.......someone else is going to have to produce

338 bu and acre to replace the acres zero out on production.....not insurance, but production........

I thought 285 bu corn was really something.........who has the 338 bu corn ????

BA and Hobby are not setting the world on fire with their corn, and they are in one of the "I" states.....heaven forbid what

what we do in the fringe area.

[jec22]

Next statement coming from the spin room.  If we turn wet during harvest (yes, that would take a ton of rain), it will be that next year's crop has a full soil profile.

The good news of the day, it looks like the western states that are burning with all the wildfires are going to get some rain in the coming days. Can't imagine their misery this summer. Would bringing back some sensible logging slow down all these wildfires?

[lsc76cat]

It's been dry out west all summer.  Longer than that in some areas. 

Sister lives near Arlington, WA and the smoke from Canadian fires has been bad for months.

About 10 days ago the Gopher football team was wondering about air quality in Corvallis when they went to play Oregon State.

Now they probably want the Gophers to come back = it rained during the game.

Haven't heard from James in the Willamette Valley for a long time.

He could give us an update.

[Hobbyfarmer]

They're going to play their cards till the very last card.

[elcheapo]

so here is the $64 question......are they full of do-do, and in a month or two, they will wake up and realize one day opps !!!

and so we have to correct the numbers, which makes the outlook appear bullish, and the market takes off like a scaled ape ?

Therefore, should one be positioning himself (or herself) in the market to profit from such a move (going long market or buy call)

cost to play the game:

corn.....at the money march call, to give some time to work thru harvest pressure, time to oil the abacus, and holiday partys

sell off the machine, get hit in the head with basis, then hope and pray it goes up.....$650.00...but we have developed a liking

of ethanol (in our vehicle tanks), and nothing like a corn feed beef steak

soybeans...same story......a bit more expensive party to attend..... $1600.....but the potentional for far better ordures

than the corn party since the world has grown to love tufu.

mar at the money call

but in case you want to take the ugly sister to the party......same story, at the money call in mar......I do find her

a bit of a expensive date at $1100. 

if you don't suffer from low T syndrome, one could sell same way out of the money puts, and put towards the cost to

buy the calls.......

I hope those of you with corn and beans don't get a "head fake" like in wheat this year, when it was best to sell off

the machine,  due to the good basis.....as one broker told me, if that is the case, its far cheaper to buy the call, than to

pay the storage (if you must do that), plus you will have cash flow........

but then again, it's kind of like the preacher, do as I say, not as I do....as the preacher introduces his girlfriend setting by his

wife in the front pew...second pew is filled with all of his children, from 4 different women (note I didn't say wives).

[Hobbyfarmer]

They are doing us a huge favor...

It's just the start of the main planting time in South America ,  keep the prices beat down for another 60 days, might just keep a few acres from being planted or taken proper care of. Not going to help their bottom line. They might just have a slight financial problem showing a profit too?