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09-12-2018 07:15 AM - last edited on 09-12-2018 03:03 PM by marketeye
At the close:
At the close, the CME Group’s December corn futures finished 14 1/4¢ lower at $3.52¾. March futures closed 13¼¢ lower at $3.65.
Nov soybean futures ended 8¼¢ higher at $8.40. January soybean futures closed 8¢ higher at $8.53 1/2.
December wheat futures finished 12¢ lower at $5.06.
December soymeal futures closed $2.20 per short ton higher at $318.40. December soy oil futures settled 0.09¢ lower at 27.99¢ a pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.05 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 49 points higher.
In its September Supply/Demand Reports, USDA pegged the U.S. corn 2018 yield at 181.3 bushels per acre, vs. the avg. trade estimate of 177.8 bu./acre and the USDA’s August number at 178.4 bu./acre. This yield, if realized, would produce a corn crop of 14.827 billion bushels.
The soybean yield is pegged at 52.8 bushels per acre vs. the avg. trade estimate of 52.2 bu./acre and the USDA’s August estimate of 51.6 bu./acre. This equates to a production total of 4.3 billion bushels.
U.S. Ending Stocks 2017/18
The USDA pegged the U.S. old-crop ending stocks at billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 2.02 billion and the USDA’s August estimate of 2.02 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the old-crop ending stocks are estimated at million bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 426 million bu.
U.S. Ending Stocks 2018/19
The USDA pegged the new-crop corn at 1.77 bill. bu./acre vs. average trade estimate of 1.63 bill. bu.
For soybeans, new-crop estimate at 845 million bu. vs, the avg. trade estimate of 830 million bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 785 million bushels.
For wheat, the USDA pegged the new-crop ending stocks at 935 million bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 941 million bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 935 million.
What say you? Big crops are getting bigger!
--Mike North, President Commodity Risk Management Group, says that today's report discussion is dominated by corn.
“The average trade guess expected yield to fall to 177.8 bpa. This is obviously less than the August report estimate of 178.4 bpa. Even at the highest guess of 180 bpa, analysts fell well short of the 181.3 bpa that the USDA now estimates the US crop to be,” North says.
North adds, “The market ‘bulls’ were caught and markets sliced a dime off corn values immediately.”
Regarding soybeans, the market took the opposite path.
“The average trade guess was 52.2 bpa with guesses reaching as high as 53.8 bpa. The USDA raised its new estimate to 52.8, far closer to estimates than that of corn.”
World balance sheets rose in harmony with US adjustments. While ending stocks estimates climbed to 845 million bushels, the news of new rounds of negotiations with China interrupted the lower trade to move bean values higher, North says.
At mid-day, the December corn futures are 14¢ lower at $3.52 3/4. March futures are 13 1/4¢ lower at $3.65.
Nov soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $8.36. Jan. soybean futures are 4¢ higher at $8.49.
Dec. wheat futures are 14 3/4¢ lower at $5.04.
Dec. soymeal futures are $0.70 per short ton lower at $315.50. Dec. soy oil futures 0.30¢ lower at 27.78.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.29 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 96 points higher.
In early trading, the December corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.64. March futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $3.77.
Nov soybean futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $8.23. Jan. soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ lower at $8.37.
Dec. wheat futures are 5¢ higher at $5.23 3/4.
Dec. soymeal futures are $3.00 per short ton lower at $313.20.
Dec. soy oil futures 0.28¢ lower at 27.80.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.94 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher.
Soybeans declined overnight after the USDA raised crop conditions by 2 percentage points week-to-week. Beans lost about 4 cents overnight, while corn was down about a penny. Wheat's been a yo-yo this week and rose a 4-5 cents overnight. There's good news on the trade front as NAFTA negotiations seem to be warming. President Trump and Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland both said positive things yesterday, a change from the negativity they had expressed in prior days. In weather news, flooding is still going on in Iowa, but waters are receding, while most eyes are on the Carolina coast where Hurricane Florence, a category 4 storm with 130-mile-an-hour winds, is making its way toward land. Check out all the details in today's 3 Big Things.
West Texas Intermediate = up 1%.
Brent Crude = up 0.4%.
Dollar = unchanged.
Wall Street = U.S. stock mixed pre-market.
World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight.
09-12-2018 12:27 PM
At these current grain prices, the price Americans pay for food should be cut drastically. It should be felt immediately.
The debate on using corn for ethanol hurting our food supply should never be brought up again.
Seed companies will be announcing huge cuts in the price of seed.
Oil companies will make a business decision to promote ethanol........because it's good for the environment.
And......that "hot" place should be freezing over any minute now.
09-12-2018 01:57 PM
Delivered last load of old corn to e plant this morning, sold it all before he!! Froze over.
They are getting some new corn in and said the guys will not say what it is making other than off the charts good, somewhere in Menlo, Iowa trade area.
They were also sure there were going to be less farmers next year.
09-12-2018 10:50 PM
09-13-2018 06:56 AM
I`m not saying that this currently is the darkest hour, that may be yet to come. But, I hope the lows come early in the harvest season, so as it doesn`t muddle up the crop revenue insurance guarantee. Like last year, harvest was late and the lows came late, a lot was harvested in November and that was the low and the crop insurance washed their hands on October 31st and said "well, we`re done with you now, best of luck!" .
Last year was what we thought were crappy prices, but at least we had great yields. This year, below trend on the way and 25% less price....$1 basis on beans??? what is this western South Dakota?