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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Someone explain to me how most yields are averaging 75 bushels an acre, (look at your yield monitor report) and yet we still have 122 bushel yield.    and thats not bullish?    We thought that we had to have 166 earlier this year, now the trade is satisftied with 122?   

 

10.7 WAS alot of corn back 10 years ago,    Today its not enough.  When prices fall you think the livestock industry will still shrink? There goes the hopes of those brazilian farmers shipping corn to the US.  

 

Ethanol for sure won't stop.   This is not rationing demand.   The industry is in denial about this short corn crop.  Its rediculous.   Everything is fine with a 10.7 we'll just move the numbers around and make it work.   I'm sure this is a form of insanity.

 

Good luck with those long bean positions.  

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Don't forget new locks and keys for the grain bin doors! Mine will be locked tight until the USDA and the market meet up with REALITY! Probably by Dec.12? Or March of 13?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

The bean #'s I can live with.

 

The whole corn #'s thing is HOG WASH

 

Way too many reports of 130ish yields out of the best of corn country.

 

Then there are the 40 bu reports out of the same areas.

 

The presold bu's and harvest will kick the can down the road for another 3 to four months.

 

One question that needs answered is why are many of the elevators in the heart of corn country offering 1/2 to "free" drying on new crop corn?

 

OOOOPPPPS: I forgot SA is going to raise a record breaking crop this coming crop cycle. Predicted by the same people that did the same for us this spring.

 

Please disreguard the first part of this post.

Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

That's correct, c-x-1. Think they're right or wrong on that?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

USDA has already hinted that their planting acreage was low.  Given this, why would they take the harvested acreage lower?  Some in the industry believe we planted as many as three million more acres of corn than what USDA reported on the June 30th Acreage Report.  This is why Informa came out with two numbers in the estimate.  One number was for what USDA would release this morning, and the other number (11 billion) was their final guess once USDA put in the additional acres that were planted. 

 

 

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Advisor

sept 30 is the more important report

That report will show stocks on hand and is the real gauge of demand not this report.  Like what was said before the important part of this report is the harvested acres.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Their harvested acres level appears at least 3% points too high based on past drought years.  Taking 3% of 96.4 million acres times 122.8 (their yield) and you arrive at 355 million less production. Use a 4% lower harvested acres % and you arrive at 475 million of lower production.

 

In 1988 the harvested % was 86.0% vs. the current estimate of 90.66%, 1993 saw a 85.9% harvested level, and 2002 was at  87.9%. The average of these 3 years is 4% below the 90.66% level used today.

 

I doubt that this will take pressure off of the requests to the EPA to change the ethanol mandate.

 

Just my initial thoughts.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Whew!! I got some out at 1724.6 but still working the others.  I still think the report is not neutral for beans but bullish.  Will all the acres be harvested, will there be a Frost and what about all the logistical problems from South America and the tightness of supply? I guess we give it more time for the public to react.

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Could it be that they will try to keep corn price under control until the crop ins. price is determined?  Lots of claims out there to file.    USDA hasn't given us anything that's made sense in the last several yrs. why would this report be any different.

Why is land bringing such a high price?  Because farmers have a lot of cash.  With lots of cash, expect them to hold what little corn they have. 

Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Does anyone think that the elevators "free" drying and the "free" storage that are coming for the corn crop will end because of this report?   Three words........Not a chance.

The price of corn goes down and the usage will go up.....I don't really care how many weeks in the year there are.

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