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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Jeff, all i know is hearing about ALL the plowed under, silage, not even good enough for silage (dead), insurance adj. ac out there, hard to believe that = 0 from last month.

c-x-1

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Goredhuser from what I understamd the 3 mill acre figure was all crops. corn was around 1 mill more and soybeans a little less than 2 million mostly double crop.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

"Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 25 3/4 cents lower at $17.27."

 

ME: I've got green on my screen

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Here's a look at the latest Freese-Notis Weather Inc. radar. It looks like the USDA is comfortable with saying even a little rain makes grain, huh? Yields must be going up today. Look at the rain out there in the northwest Corn Belt:

 

interrad-1.gif

 

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Gored, looking at last year's final acres of corn vs. the figure reported to the Farm Service Agency and equating this year's August FSA figure on a percentage basis, a figure of 96.2 million acres of corn may be closer, not an increase in acres from their current 96.4 million acre figure.  That does not mean the % of acres not enrolled in the program this year vs. 2011 may not change.

 

The soybean acres shown for 2012 using this same review may actually be 50-100,000 too low.

 

If I knew for sure, I would not be working for a living.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

Mike it looks like the board has made the turn at the bottom of the pool.  Wht and beans rising----can corn follow?  How does it look?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

I'll bet you sleep better tonight. That is one of the benefits of not speculating. You don't have to sleep with one eye on the overnite trade.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

A couple of notes relating to the wheat trade that I thought I'd throw in here. Spoke with Jonah Ford, an analyst with Ceres Hedge, during an MGEX conference call this morning after the reports were released. He made a couple of noteworthy points regarding the wheat side of things: First, on the subject of a potential Russia/Ukraine export ban: He said he thinks the market's not too worried about that right now, even though Ukraine's got about 2 million tonnes of wheat left before a "curb" goes into effect, under which exports will drop to next to nothing. He said they're "down to their bare minimum" with wheat stocks. But again, it sounds like that may already be old news for the wheat trade.

 

But, that's different in Australia. The poor growing conditions that have hit Russia and India are now making things tough for Australian wheat farmers. Ford said he thinks they've lost a chunk of production now and they could see a "significant decline" in production if the drought there keeps up. All in all, Ford said this is "fairly bullish" though it's too early to tell how much so. Certainly compared to the Russian situation, there's more potential upside influence in the Australian situation.

 

So, Marketeye or anyone else here: Think that will actually make enough noise to the upside that it could spill over into corn or beans?

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

  mike,how come the spring wheat market took off at the close?. thought hrs was called lower today.

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 12

VERY INTERESTING REPORT    but how can you have even 120 bushels average yield when they dont count acres that they have zeroed out...... and our local ethanol plants have been running on new corn  for the past 3 weeks  currently running on only new corn   So  is this corn counted as 2012 production  or as 2011 corn  it isnt OCT 1  yet the start of the  2012 crop marketing yeat............Also  wouldnt you think  the fsa offices would know how many acres of corn we have  we have to report to them  and federal crop  and the numbers better be the same    how can some other goverenment agency  find a different number to use  

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