A couple of notes relating to the wheat trade that I thought I'd throw in here. Spoke with Jonah Ford, an analyst with Ceres Hedge, during an MGEX conference call this morning after the reports were released. He made a couple of noteworthy points regarding the wheat side of things: First, on the subject of a potential Russia/Ukraine export ban: He said he thinks the market's not too worried about that right now, even though Ukraine's got about 2 million tonnes of wheat left before a "curb" goes into effect, under which exports will drop to next to nothing. He said they're "down to their bare minimum" with wheat stocks. But again, it sounds like that may already be old news for the wheat trade.
But, that's different in Australia. The poor growing conditions that have hit Russia and India are now making things tough for Australian wheat farmers. Ford said he thinks they've lost a chunk of production now and they could see a "significant decline" in production if the drought there keeps up. All in all, Ford said this is "fairly bullish" though it's too early to tell how much so. Certainly compared to the Russian situation, there's more potential upside influence in the Australian situation.
So, Marketeye or anyone else here: Think that will actually make enough noise to the upside that it could spill over into corn or beans?
