Floor Talk September 13

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract settled 4 1/4 cents higher at $7.73 3/4. Nov. soybean futures contract finished 1 1/2 cents higher at $17.47 1/4. Dec. wheat futures closed 12 cents higher at $9.02 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.53 higher at $57.01. The Dec. soymeal futures contract closed $1.50 per short ton lower at $530.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.89 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 199 points higher.

Mike

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At 11:50am:

Noon News:

--The Fed Reserve announces a $40 billion QE3 program to buy mortgages and bring down rates. Will this work and will it change the farm markets? Can supply/demand trump the Fed's move?

--Egypt buys 235,000 mt of Russian, Ukranian and French wheat. Oh boy, this probably won't go over well with the wheat market, do you suppose?

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $7.72 1/4. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 10 1/4 cents lower at $17.35 1/2. Dec. wheat futures are trading 6 3/4 cents higher at $8.96 3/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.01 higher at $56.49. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.50 per short ton lower at $526.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.81 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 22 points higher.

Mike

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At 9:50am:

In early trading:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 2 cents higher at $7.71. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $17.42. Dec. wheat futures are trading 4 3/4 cents higher at $8.94 3/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.01 higher at $56.49. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.90 per short ton lower at $530.80.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.16 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points higher.

Mike

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At 7:45am:

USDA's Weekly Export Sales appear to be pretty weak Thursday:

Corn= 215,800 vs.the trade's range of 200,000-400,000 metric tons.
Soybeans= 570,000 mt vs. the trade's estimate of 500,000-800,000 mt.
Wheat= 381,800 mt vs. the trade's estimate of 300,000-600,000 mt.

Mike

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At 7:20am:

Market Noise:

--Russia's Prime Minister believes speculators are keeping the grain ban talk alive when it isn't necessary.

--Rumor has it that the EPA is not in favor of changing the U.S. ethanol mandate.

--Goldman Sachs sees $9.00 corn, $20.00 soybeans and $9.80 wheat, in the coming months, due to the company's research.

Mike

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At 6:55am:

Early calls:  Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents lower, and wheat 4-6 cents higher. USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report at 7:30am CT.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.16 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening mixed, ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement on quantitative easing at 11:30am Thursday.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mixed, while Europe's stocks are lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[kinderb]

Mike, On our local news they showed where Argentina was getting hammered by flooding. They said it was hurting livestock and crop production. Last months total rain fall for that area was more than double for the year before. Only crop I could see it would hurt would be wheat, but I don't know if they grow much wheat or not? Was wondering if you have heard anything about this?

[marketeye]

kinderb,

I'm interested where you are located, since you referenced your local news? Also, I have heard that Argentina is getting wet. But, I will dig further with my Argentinian contacts and hopefully bring some light to the situation. Thanks for asking and posting. I appreciate the help in keeping this Marketing forum informational, insightful and so on.

Thanks,

Mike

[Hobbyfarmer]

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/HE_SA_24Hour.php

This goes back 3 weeks and I do not see any big widespread rain event.

[floydboy]

If there has been a crop loss there, it would be with regards to winter wheat; no other crop was in the field when the big rains occurred (corn planting is getting started this month).

All of the big rains occurred in August and very early this month and they were VERY big in August…more than four times normal levels for August -31  in some areas of especially the state of Buenos Aires. I track 10 stations in Buenos Aires; their August 1 to September 11 rain totals range from 4.01 to 13.89 inches (256 to 557 percent of normal for that period).

Argentina has been dry the last four days and will see two more days of dry weather. Rains for the weekend and into next week will favor the eastern half of the country.

Argentina is currently forecast to produce 11.5 MMT of wheat for 2012/13.

[kinderb]

Just north of St. Louis Missouri

[marketeye]

Kinderb,

Great. Thanks for sharing. How's the farmland around there that was damaged by the flood? Is it still damaged to the point that you can't farm it? The bottom ground is what I'm talking about. Also, what is the basis along the river, these days?

Thanks,

Mike

[kinderb]

No floods in this part of Illinois. -20 to -10 river. +20 e plant. For a short crop seems like a lot going to terminals do to aflo scare.

[Wheatking02]

So do the markets already have another round of QE built in. Will no QE announcement send the markets lower or will QE send us to the moon.

[Palouser]

QE will do niether in my opinion - as in no effect. None.