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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk September 13

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 9 1/2¢ lower at $3.30, while March futures finished 9 1/4¢ lower at $3.40 3/4 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures finished 20 1/4¢ lower at $9.44, while Jan. soybean futures finished 19 3/4¢ lower at $9.49. Dec. wheat futures closed 8 1/4¢ lower at $4.01. Dec. soymeal futures ended $5.80 short ton lower at $306.10. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.79 lower at 31.85¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.27 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 278 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec. corn futures are 7 1/4¢ lower at $3.32, while March futures are 7¢ lower at $3.43 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures are 17 1/2¢ lower at $9.46, while Jan. soybean futures are 17 1/4¢ lower at $9.51 1/2. Dec. wheat futures are 5¢ lower at $4.04. Dec. soymeal futures are $5.70 short ton lower at $306.20. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.72 lower at 31.92¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.31 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 235 points lower.

 

Mike

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In early trading:

At 8:45am, the Dec. corn futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $3.34, while March futures are 5¢ lower at $3.45 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures are 8 3/4¢ lower at $9.55, while Jan. soybean futures are 8 3/4¢ lower at $9.60. Dec. wheat futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.05. Dec. soymeal futures are $3.50 short ton lower at $308.40. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.20 lower at 32.44¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.81 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 138 points lower.

 

Mike

 

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The USDA report was fairly surprising yesterday, and one can't help but wonder if they went to only the best fields in the country to get their numbers. Reports of fungal diseases in areas where the rain won't stop have been rolling in while dry weather in parts of Ohio have damaged yields. Will crops be good? The consensus is yes. Will they be great? Not from what we're hearing. Yet, here we are. What isn't a surprise is the weather -- it's expected to rain some more in much of the Midwest. Much of eastern Kansas is still in some sort of flood warning or watch, and more precipitation is on the way. 
 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 1.8% lower.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 2.1% lower.

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in overnight trading. 
World Markets = Global stocks decline as oil prices drop.

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3 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 13

Tony my thoughts are that we have a solid crop, but not quite the bin buster everyone thinks. 90+ degree temps in early August didn't help anything. Record yields come from years slightly cooler than normal with plenty of rain. I scouted my beans in late July/early August. The pods at the top of the plant were consistently 3 and 4 bean pods. After a couple weeks of 90+ degree heat those pods shrunk to 1-3 bean pods at the top of the plant. We will have good bean size with all the August and September rains though.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 13

I'd like to see your analysts discuss how to market when futures prices are apparently out of line with fundamentals.  Farmers reading CME prices and looking at their fields may be confused.   Discussing how to trade this looks like a story to me.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 13

Jim,

 

One of those fundamentals you speak of may be the big crops. And the need for more buyers. For perspective purposes, here's how we used it up last year, according to the U.S. Grains Council.

 

In the 2014/2015 crop marketing year, (Sept. 1- Aug. 31) the United States grew nearly 14.2 billion bushels (360 million metric tons) of corn and roughly 13 percent of production was exported to more than 100 different countries.

 

Big Buyers:

 

Japan (26 percent), Mexico (23 percent) and Colombia (9 percent) made up the top three of U.S. corn destinations. 

 

 

Mike

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