Floor Talk September 14

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract settled 9 1/4 cents higher at $7.83. Nov. soybean futures contract closed 9 3/4 cents lower at $17.37. Dec. wheat futures ended 22 cents higher at $9.24 1/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.44 higher at $57.45. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $4.90 per short ton lower at $525.70.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.60 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 26 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 10 1/4 cents higher at $7.84. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 5 3/4 cents higher at $17.53. Dec. wheat futures are trading 24 cents higher at $9.26 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.52 higher at $57.53. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.10 per short ton lower at $530.50.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.80 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 70 points higher.

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 10 1/4 cents higher at $7.84. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 17 1/4 cents higher at $17.64. Dec. wheat futures are trading 19 cents higher at $9.21 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.68 higher at $57.69. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.30 per short ton higher at $534.90.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.28 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 100 points higher.

Mike

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At 6:25am:

Early calls:  Corn 7-9 cents higher, soybeans 11-13 cents higher, and wheat 14-16 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.79 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, with a continued rallying atmosphere following the Federal Reserve announcement's of a QE3 stimulus package for the U.S. economy. The world markets are responding positively to the news as well.

World=Higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[jrsiajdranch]

Mornin Mike,

I wonder if you could ask da boyz on the floor how low they think the dollar can go.  This round of easing is a little different because the fed has left it open ended.  If we take out the March 08 lows or even approach them Which means the dollar needs to lose about another 10% of it's value, This thing is gonna get real ugly real fast. 

There are no direct correlations just a firm relationship between the price of corn and the weak dollar.

It appears our foreign buying friends were right to be waiting for a bottom in the dollar.  This just put Ag goods on sale to the rest of the world. 

So if we have a 10% drop in dollar value we could easily take out the highs of August.  But it will also take out the American consumer.  Cause that takes Gas to an all time high.

I am also going to be interested to see what some of our chief rivals in supply will do.

Does Brazil fight back by lowering the value of the real?  They have to compete with us on the currency trade now.

The Kiwi's are also in for this fight. decreasing supplies of dairy products plus a cheaper dollar may make them really mad at us.

[Blacksandfarmer]

Will anybody on here see this as a sell signal for some 2013 crop?

[sw363535]

If nov 13 follows----------------YES

[marketeye]

jrsiajdranch,

I do have a few Dollar contacts. I'll be sure to put a bug in there ear today. THanks for the question. It is a valid one, at this point.

Mike

[kyjlong]

I'm sorry, but what has happened that could construct a sell signal?

QE forever, dollar down .65 and anticipated more so, beans up 17 cents since midnight, oil up $1.45/bl, Gold up $5+.

[sw363535]

Easy answer------------- economic instability.

Short supply and a semi load of paper money won't support price if I can't find a buyer who can write a good check.

IMO----------- the prevailing pattern stays------government trumps the big new crop in brazil, then in US----------then it takes us till july to see supply issues, then from june to Aug 20th we have a short run to see markets rise only to have the top blown off the storm by the new crop.  And eventually we do get a "normal" crop that will be "bigger than expected" and cheap grain returns to support cheap milk and meat-------------------------------

All this is as regular as clockwork.

What is more instable is the question, "How worthless can the dollar get and still keep the economy alive?"

[Palouser]

I don't know about '13 but, I'm selling the last half of my '11 wheat  - finally! AARGH !!!!  

[sixtysixx]

still clingin to my 12 wheat but did make a 13 sale today at $8.44......hope its my worse one lol.

[sw363535]

do you have to Palouser,

A few days might be worth watching.