Floor Talk September 15

[Tony_Dreibus]

Crop prices were little changed in overnight trading as investors weight reports of dry weather in Brazil with calls for record crops in the US. The Bayer purchase of Monsanto dominated headlines yesterday, and likely will for a while, as regulators start digging into how much the acquisition will affect competition not only in the US but globally. The rapid consolidation within the industry is creating fewer and fewer companies, so it's not a slam dunk just yet. 
 

Here's what happened overnight:

Brent Crude Oil = 0.7% higher.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.4% higher.

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in overnight trading. 
World Markets = Global stocks rise as oil prices rebound.

[jec22]

Here is a good link if you want to follow IL harvest.  I have found over the years these guys are pretty accurate.  Just click on any county that is yellow.

http://farmweeknow.com/customPage.aspx?p=18

Overall I would say most hope their full season corn is better as the early stuff is good, but so far it is not like 2014. But this is already a week old, they update every Friday I think. I am not sure this crop was fertilized, fungicided for a record crop.

IF, and that is a still an IF, these crops are short of USDA's estimates.  One can say our government did more financial damage to the farmer than Synengta. It is harder and harder not to believe there is not some big money influence in the reports after all the exposure of "pay for play" in the news.  Hope that is not the case.  WCMO had the quote of the day"

Cynical reply -- it depends -- if yields seem higher than USDA, will start trading right away -- if yields seem lower than USDA, will start trading when confirmed by USDA.

 Beans are the time bomb, the USDA had to go with 50 bpa to make the numbers work.  Take just two bpa off the national yield and you have fireworks.  Folks, putting IL at 61 was a bold call, but I have heard many think they have good beans.  The great beans are going to have to offset the SDS and weedy beans.  I guess the USDA is "making beans great again".

[jec22]

Cynical reply -- it depends -- if yields seem higher than USDA, will start trading right away -- if yields seem lower than USDA, will start trading when confirmed by USDA.

 Beans are the time bomb, the USDA had to go with 50 bpa to make the numbers work.  Take just two bpa off the national yield and you have fireworks.  Folks, putting IL at 61 was a bold call, but I have heard many think they have good beans.  The great beans are going to have to offset the SDS and weedy beans.  I guess the USDA is "making beans great again".