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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, September 17, 2019

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 6¢ lower at $3.68. March corn futures closed 56¢ lower at $3.80.

Nov. soybean futures ended 6 1/4¢ lower at $8.93. Jan. soybean futures closed 6 1/2¢ lower at $9.07.

Dec. wheat futures settled 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.84 3/4.



December soymeal futures ended $1.10 per short ton lower at $297.80.

 December soy oil futures finished $0.29 lower at 29.99¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $3.64 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 8 points lower.

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 6¢ lower at $3.68. March corn futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $3.80 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $8.92. Jan. soybean futures are 7 3/4¢ lower at $9.06.

Dec. wheat futures are 7 1/2¢ lower at $4.81 3/4.



December soymeal futures are $1.90 per short ton lower at $297.00.

 December soy oil futures are $0.24 lower at 30.04¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $3.15 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points lower.

Mike

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At 9:05am:

Scott Irwin, University of Illinois economist, has down some math on the small refinery exemptions (SRE).

Here is the math. Over 2016-2018, SRE waivers for RFS amounted to 4.05 billion gallons (BG). If 2019 and 2020 are same as 2018, that total would move up to 6.88BG.

So, if in 2020, 2.35BG are added to mandates, this still leaves 4.53BG of lost gallons to SRE waivers over 2016-18.

What say you?

 

Mike

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At 8:48am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.69 1/2. March corn futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.81 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $8.91 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $9.05 3/4.

Dec. wheat futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.84 3/4.



December soymeal futures are $2.90 per short ton lower at $296.00.

 December soy oil futures are $0.09 lower at 30.19¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.55 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 79 points lower.

On Tuesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 260,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are squarely focused on harvest results and the crude oil market.

“Grain traders are more interested in hearing what the early yield reports have to say. It is still worth watching crude oil prices,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “It is still early, but the early yield indications for harvest in the US are not sounding great. Many reports from clients suggest we need a few weeks of warm, dry weather for this crop to finish.”

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Marketeye says, "China is loving these  cheap U.S. soybeans. Can't get enough of them.

 

Mike

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3 Replies
Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 17, 2019

So why are we lower again ? Can’t give them away. This market is a joke. Keep talking about crude oil on an Ag market idiots 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 17, 2019

"warm dry weather"....talk about backyarditis in the extreme. No rain in most of In/Oh since mid-August. Frost no longer an issue, once it is dead it doesn't hurt much :-)

Early yield reports are simply shockingly low. 25% below last year is commonplace if not optimistic. For example, a 160 in SWIN from a farmer with scales, 131, last year was 207. A thousand acres in C-OH at 155, last year at 220.

The cool part is the end-user knows they are in deep trouble, basis is extremely strong. So strong that there is no carry into 2020. Bizarre for a market trading at 3.70 with a supposed 2.4 Bil carryout. Where is it seems to be a fair question?

 

Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 17, 2019

isn't it to the farmers advantage to talk up the yields, drive down the price, until after the crop insurance guarantees are set?

I know that I am not selling anything more this year, and the cheaper the CBOT goes, the more I stand to net in the next few months.

Having said that, my crops look way better than I expected here in southern MN.

Wink Wink

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