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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk September 17

At 1pm:

BREAKING NEWS: Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged.

What do you think? Agree or disagree?

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 6 1/4 cents lower at $3.79 3/4. Nov. soybean futures finished 2 3/4 cents lower at $8.84.

Dec. wheat futures closed 6 3/4 cents lower at $4.81 1/2.

Dec. soymeal futures finished $3.10 per short ton lower at $312.30. Dec. soyoil futures settled $0.02 lower at $26.87. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.44 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 26 points lower.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec. corn futures are trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $3.81.  Nov. soybean futures are trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $8.82.

Dec. wheat futures are 5 1/2 cents lower at $4.82.

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $2.10 per short ton lower at $313.30. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.31 lower at $26.58. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.05 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 2 points lower.

Jacob Burks, Wedbush Futures grain analyst, says that the talk is few yield numbers being reported were more than 10% above last year corn or beans.  "We were set up technically to sustain a little more of a rally but we ran out of buyers.  Market is scared of big crop with economic news that hasn’t supported increased demand.  Funds are short so if we can get some fundamental news that decreases production could stimulate some fund buying," Burks says.
 

Dustin Johnson, EHedger Inc. grain analyst, says that he is hearing some better than expected yield reports, not just confined to the "garden spots".  "Although the anecdotal reports are not enough to make a general assumption for the final national average yield, they are at least trending well. The potential for a rate hike this afternoon many be scaring the investment community as well."

 

Mike

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In early trading:

At 9:10am, the Dec. corn futures are trading 4 3/4 cents lower at $3.81.  Nov. soybean futures are trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $8.82.

Dec. wheat futures are 4 cents lower at $4.84.

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.80 per short ton lower at $313.60. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.12 lower at $26.77. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.17 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 11 points lower.

Mike

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At 7:40am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Thursday:

 

Wheat= 377,500 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 250,000-470,000 metric tons.

Corn= 533,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 350,000-650,000mmt.

Soybeans= 912,000 mt. vs. the trade's expectations of  500,000-1.3 mmt.

Soybean meal =41,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 100,000-200,000  metric tons.

 

Mike

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At 7:10am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.69 lower.
Dollar =Lower.  
Wall Street = Seen flat, ahead of the Fed Reserve meeting today.

World Markets = Europe stocks were mosly higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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5 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 17

The early bean yields in my neck of the woods are running anywhere from 15 bushels per acre to a high of 45......with most reports so far in the 20s.    It appears we will be bringing the overall average down. But I do believe there will be some better yields in the later beans.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 17

In Wisconsin, I believe about 1 million acres are used as corn silage. In the local area the chopping is just starting and yields  are not like last year, I believe a few more acres will be chopped. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 17

Interest rates. The fed was successful if it convinced someone they could have raised them.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 17

I don't know think they dare raise for a while
(interest rates) holiday season, and election talk
Will prevent. Plus despite what the talking heads
Say, the fed does have some smart cookies working
For them, and they know we don't need anymore
Problems. I really don't see where a hike would
Help, and could have neg effects.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 17

I think the fed made the right(only) decision in not raising rates.  It would be playing with fire, a raise in rates could put the economy in a unrecoverable flat spin.  We`re addicted to cheap money and not only does that not generate the fed`s definition of "inflation" but it`s one of the sole threads that holds up the economy.

 

We see inflation, we go out to eat and the bill was higher than last year for the same items on the menu and the portion sizes are noticeably smaller.  We look at pickups and the one that had a sticker of $55,000, now has a $70,000 sticker, movie tickets are higher, admissions to shows are higher...to us there`s all kinds of inflation. 

 

The fed looks at wages and sees them flat...well we have too many workers going after the same number of jobs, there`s no incentive to pay more.  One worker does the math and sees that welfare pays a little better than some jobs so drops out of the labor force.  But you have 2 undocumented workers willing to do those jobs for every person that drops out of the labor force.

 

Factory workers that did have living wage jobs have lost or are in imminent danger of having their jobs off-shored or replaced with robots...so as the fed sees it there is no danger of their definition of "inflation".  I guess the question is why does the fed need a interest rate "tool" in their tool box?   Market forces are are doing just fine in keeping their definition of inflation down without the fed intervention.

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