Floor Talk September 17

[Tony_Dreibus]

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the December corn futures are 3¢ lower at $3.48. March futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.61.

Nov soybean futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $8.26.  Jan. soybean futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $8.40 1/2.

Dec. wheat futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $5.10.

Dec. soymeal futures are $2.70 per short ton lower at $306.00.

Dec. soy oil futures are $0.04 higher at 27.80.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.16 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 22 points lower.

Mike

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At 8:50am:

In early trading, the December corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.49. March futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.61.



Nov soybean futures are 6¢ lower at $8.24.  Jan. soybean futures are 5 3/4¢ lower at $8.38.



Dec. wheat futures are 4¢ lower at $5.07.



Dec. soymeal futures are $1.80 per short ton lower at $306.90.

Dec. soy oil futures are $0.01 lower at 27.75.
 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.54 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 36 points lower.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 241,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that outside investors are getting less optimistic on corn.
“The Commitments of Traders report released on Friday showed the funds had been short 63,000 corn futures contracts, short 68,000 soybeans and long 61,000 wheat. However, as the selling accelerated after the bearish USDA report last Wednesday, traders estimate the funds are now short over 100,000 contracts of corn,” Kluis stated to customers in a daily note.

He added, “Further cases of African Swine Flu (ASF) have been found in China. Now, there is a report of ASF in Belgium near the French border. This needs to be contained soon or world demand for feed will be affected.”

Mike

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Soybeans were lower overnight on concerns about the escalating trade war with China. The Trump administration may add tariffs on another $200 billion worth of goods from the Asian nation despite ongoing talks between the countries. The fear is that China will retaliate, thought it will have to now get creative as it doesn't import that much from the US. Beans were down about 6 cents, corn lost 2 cents and wheat gained 2-3 cents in overnight trading. Money managers, meanwhile, increased their bearish outlook for both beans and corn, while becoming less bullish on wheat futures, according to the CFTC. In weather news, North Carolina, the second-biggest hog producer behind only Iowa, is still getting battered by the remnants of Hurricane Florence with flooding and tornado warnings in effect today. Check out today's 3 Big Things for all the details. 

West Texas Intermediate = up 0.8%.

Brent Crude = up 0.7%.

Dollar = down 0.3%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock lower pre-market.

World Markets = Global stocks mostly lower overnight.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Saw three yield sheets done for crop insurance, on chopped fields 196, ;192, 151. Here in South central Iowa.

Brazil is starting pal ting with good moisture.

Argentina is going heavy on beans and lighter on corn because of export extortion taxes.

My feeling is the Chinese are playing a shell game and are worse off financially then most suspect.

We are too with 21 trillion in the hole.

Just waiting for the cascade event for a reset.

Don t know which way to make my frog jump to stay out of harms way.

[BA Deere]

Yes.  What is always missing in the "woe, poor farmers and the tariffs"  is the pain that is inflicted on the Chinese manufacturing sector, if you go to Asian news sources it`s a 180 degree different story than is reported in the US media. I`m not saying anyone is gonna come out smelling like a rose, but history may show it would`ve been better off for all concerned if China struck a deal sooner than later, instead of acting like the alpha rooster in the henhouse. 

But the national debt, at $6 trillion when Bush #43 took over, that was our last chance to fiscally do something about it.  But "9/11" and we had to go spend $1 Trillion for revenge on countries that 19 of the 20 terrorists didn`t come from.  And have bailouts and bailins and eat comfort food "not worry about it".  Then it hit $10 Trillion and Lehman Brother and Merrill Lynch went broke and McMansions were going pennies on the dollar "we gotta have 0% interest and TARP and $80billion/month Quantitative easing spending ...can`t worry about the debt now...it`s an emergency!!!".   Then we gotta have "Medicare for everyone and open borders, cause we`re sooo nice"  well yada yada yada, the debt is $20 Trillion and now $21.5 Trillion...so now we`re finally gonna worry about it???

The only "growth" we get is from government spending, so the choice we have is cut spending and have a crappy economy and in 2 or 4 years the "other party" gets in who promises to fix things by loosening up the purse strings.   Or increase spending and have a booming economy and in the case of the party currently in power now still might lose because of Jimmy Kimmel and Stephen Colbert`s monologs.

Seems the national debt since Reagan is doubled by every following president.   I don`t know the number $30 Trillion...$25 Trillion or $21.6 Trillion, but I do know that the $20 Trillion debt won`t be doubled to $40 Trillion.  So someone, somewhere will have to negotiate a "haircut" for our creditors.   I guess the current commander in chief has experience in those procedures , so on that aspect we are sitting good   🙂

[giolucas]

Who pays for these tariffs being imposed?

Americans.

[BA Deere]

Gio, if American workers aren`t gainfully and fully employed, who makes up for it?  We all do....well those of us that pay taxes anyway.   If $10 wage jobs are the only one`s available and it costs $20/hr to live, it`s taxpayers that make up the difference.   But, that`s part of the $21.5 Trillion national debt, giving earned income credits to the half of Americans that don`t pay income tax....they don`t make enough that they actually owe income tax. 

So, this imported crap gets a tariff/tax...well that`s just a little relief on those of us that get soaked on income tax.   If  10 foot of American roller chain is $60 and 10 foot of imported roller chain is $30, the cheapskates that buy the imported crap should get punished for not buying American....if they don`t, MY TAX BILL is higher because I have to pay healthcare and food stamps for the displaced American workers that aren`t getting a paycheck making roller chain...right?

Foreign companies that pay $5/hr, have lax environmental laws and worker safety laws, undercut the American worker, those that enable that system to continue should be punished by paying a tariff on the crap they buy.  You want cheap $30 roller chain?   Then move to China where it`s made and farm there!

I`ll tell you one thing, not many ribeye steaks are bought with food stamps, those that buy steak are the one`s getting a steady paycheck every week. 

[Blacksandfarmer]

Amen BA!

[BA Deere]

Thank you Blacksandfarmer.  

Unfortunately this is probably all we will hear from Gio or anyone else that is against a more balanced US trade.  When I say what I did the free traders scatter...and I wish that wasn`t the case, if they can shoot that down, I would really be interested in their defense of what has gone on in America on trade for the last 30 years.  

I voted for Ross Perot both times he ran because he said the truth and after 25 years it`s bore out ...I couldn`t find fault with his "sucking sound" forecasts and that`s exactly what happened.  The American worker was appeased with Walmart stores and Dollar General stores so their shrinking paychecks went further, but it`s been 1 step forward, 2 steps back.   Now we have a president that will do something about it, elected on that and is fought every step of the way.   Unfortunately, it`s probably much too late, the problem is "stage 4".

[giolucas]

BA,

lets throw out the baby with  the bathwater.....tariffs have good and bad but in the end the consumer is the one that pays for it.  

Not too hard to understand.  I hope.  

[BA Deere]

As it has been, solely the US Taxpayer pays for underemployed American workers....well, politicians get elected "cutting taxes" so what we`ve had isn`t exactly "pay as you go" so that`s why the national debt is $21.5 trillion, technically future taxpayers are on the hook for that as well. 

Of course consumers should pay for products, the entire cost of that product.  But I don`t call paying workers 1/4th of a living wage, no worker safety standards, polluting factories that increase "global warming" a good deal.   If a widget costs $10 to produce in real terms, and a country using slave labor and lax conditions and produces that widget for $5 ...that is not moral nor a good deal.   Yes, the consumers or taxpayers make up that difference.  To my thinking it should be the consumers paying the entire cost of the widget, NOT cost shifting it to the US Taxpayer. 

http://www.industrytap.com/worlds-15-biggest-ships-create-more-pollution-than-all-the-cars-in-the-wo...   

World’s 15 Biggest Ships Create More Pollution Than All The Cars In The World

By: Jeremy Helms | June 5th, 2013

Says James Corbett, professor of marine policy at the University of Delaware: “Ship pollution affects the health of communities in coastal and inland regions around the world, yet pollution from ships remains one of the least regulated parts of our global transportation system.” It sounds serious, but how bad could it be? Staggeringly, if a report by the UK’s Guardian newspaper is to be believed. According to their story, just one of the world’s largest container ships can emit about as much pollution as 50 million cars. Further, the 15 largest ships in the world emit as much nitrogen oxide and sulphur oxide as the world’s 760 million cars.

The problem isn’t necessarily with the ships’ 109,000-horsepower engines that endlessly spin away 24 hours a day, 280 days a year. In fact, these powerplants are some of the most fuel efficient units in the world. The real issue lies with the heavy fuel oil the ships run on and the almost complete lack of regulations applied to the giant exhaust stacks of these container ships.

The good news is that pressure is building from various governments around the world, including the United States, which just recently introduced legislation to keep these ships at least 230 miles away from U.S. coastlines. Similar measures are likely to follow in other countries like the United Kingdom. 

See, all that cheap foreign junk has expenses that are rarely figured beyond the Walmart price tag

[sw363535]

Well it is pobably stage 4 for the grain markets.

But don't believe everything a politician says.  And the "surprise" "surprise" winner  sounds most like a politician when he speaks of the "economy".

Truth is the economy has been critical since the 1990's,  needing cash transfusions and larger federal spending to maintain life while watching the fake environment saving shows on the hospital TV.   Nothing has changed in the economy by voting the democrats out.  It is still on life supports unless your job is governmental or education.... the first in line for borrowed federal money.

If the grain markets are pushed by the wind of speculation, then  this boat has a huge sail, and operates in hurricane forced winds.   And the analogy would follow to say that actual grain sales  is the rudder that guides the ship.  Our rudder has been trimmed down to a token comment about exports while usda huffs an puffs speculation for every microphone.  

If there is a coast guard life savings in our future, it will not come from DC,  They will throw you a 1 cent life saver ........ lime flavored.