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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk September 18

At the close:

The December corn futures finished 3 1/2 cents lower at $3.38.

 

November soybean futures settled 11 cents lower at $9.71.

 

December wheat futures finished 10 3/4 cents lower at $4.88.

 

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract ended $3.90 per short ton lower at $320.30; Dec. soybean oil futures finished $0.68 lower at $32.87.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $1.14 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 96 points higher.

 

MIke

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At mid-session:

The December corn futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $3.39.

 

November soybean futures are trading 9 1/4 cents lower at $9.73.

 

December wheat futures are 8 cents lower at $4.91.

 

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract trading $3.80 per short ton lower at $320.40; Dec. soybean oil futures traded $0.42 lower at $33.13.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.70 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 89 points higher.

 

Markets remain weaker. Dustin Johnson, EHedger analyst, says that even though weekly export sales were strong, they should be expected to be stronger at this time of year. 

"The market is probably convinced that the total exports will not grow from the current estimate of 1.7 billion just because we have a bumper crop.  The world is flush with beans and we are expecting a total world stocks - use bean ratio well over 30%!  The early bean yields have been really great and that is probably where most of this weakness is coming from.  Corn yields have also been phenomenal.  We have had a 26% drop in price since the spring insurance price was set. But, I would argue that many producers will have 10% to 20% yield increases, making up much of that difference."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The December corn futures are trading 3 1/4 cents lower at $3.38.

 

November soybean futures are trading 3 cents lower at $9.79.

 

December wheat futures are 6 cents lower at $4.93.

 

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract trading $0.30 per short ton lower at $323.90; Dec. soybean oil futures traded $0.31 lower at $33.24.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.24 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

More fresh sales to China announced Thursday.

 

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 110,000 metric tons of soybeans to China during the 2014/2015 marketing year. 

 

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

 

Mike

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At 7:55am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Thursday released:

Wheat= 314,500 metric tons  vs. the trade's expectations of 350,000-650,000 metric tons.

 

Corn=722,400 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 500,000-800,000 metric tons.

 

Soybeans= 1.468 million mt, vs. the trade's expectations of 850,000-1,600,000 metric tons.

 

Mike

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At 7:38am:

Early calls: Corn is 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.06 per barrel lower.
Dollar = Lower
Wall Street = Seen higher, on Fed relief rally.
World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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7 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

Is it me, or are the soybean export ranges getting wider and wider?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

Gio,

After two weeks of the trading year we have sold 25.4% of this crop to exports (100M over last year).  Most at much higher prices, and it is not noticed much.

 

Beans are going to remain tight for some time.  It is good and may give us time to rebuild the cattle herd.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

Hard to imagine beans going much lower.

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

Buck told you we are going much lower sw. Support has to hold here or we go to 8.30
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

Sw, 

 

These low prices should bring out some creative ways of getting the bills paid.  Remember, financial literacy?  When you have to spend, SAVE IT.   

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

gio and sw,

unless i'm reading the export table incorrectly, we are 55% committed in beans on year & 99% committed in meal - Beans are top row, meal bottom. i think the standout stat is we are 11% more sold/committed in beans than same week-last yr. This pace is certainly not relfected in USDA projected exports. They have US exporting 1% more than last yr....if we actually export 11% more = 159 mil bu off ending right there - USDA is probably shy on feed/crushings

   Economically, I agree - nothing has REALLY changed s/d-wise and at least in part BECAUSE of lower prices - I could easily see ending towards 200 or below -once supply is more figured by late winter.

 

exports.gif

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

...add let us not forget the 1.5 mil or there-a-bouts, metric tonnes committed but not yet shipped for LAST marketing yr - those bu won't be hiding on my balance sheet. Smiley Wink