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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk September 18

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 2 1/2 cents lower at $3.77 1/4.  Nov. soybean futures finished 17 1/4 cents lower at $8.67 1/4.

Dec. wheat futures closed 5 1/4 cents higher at $4.86 3/4.

Dec. soymeal futures finished $4.50 per short ton lower at $307.80. Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.62 lower at $26.25. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $2.37 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 248 points lower.

Mike

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At 1:40pm:

 

Egypt buys a bunch of wheat. None of it is from the U.S., unfortunately.

 

EGYPT'S GASC BUYS 55,000 TONNES OF UKRANIAN WHEAT FROM VENUS
EGYPT'S GASC BUYS 55,000 TONNES OF RUSSIAN WHEAT FROM GLENCORE
EGYPT'S GASC BUYS 60,000 TONNES OF RUSSIAN WHEAT FROM OLAM
EGYPT'S GASC BUYS 60,000 TONNES OF FRENCH WHEAT FROM SOUFFLET
EGYPT'S GASC BUYS WHEAT AT AVERAGE PRICE OF $191 A TONNE COST AND FREIGHT

 

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec. corn futures are trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $3.79.  Nov. soybean futures are trading 13 1/2 cents lower at $8.71.

Dec. wheat futures are 6 1/4 cents higher at $4.87.

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $3.90 per short ton lower at $308.40. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.58 lower at $26.29. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.27 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 132 points lower.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Dec. corn futures are trading 1 cent lower at $3.78.  Nov. soybean futures are trading 3 cents lower at $8.81.

Dec. wheat futures are 2 cents higher at $4.83.

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $0.30 per short ton lower at $312.00. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.35 lower at $26.51. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.60 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 99 points lower.

Mike

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At 8:25am:

I think corn has life. Ukraine mentioned today that its corn production will drop 20% this year. We've already heard from our Brazilian counterparts that say corn in that country is falling. On a global stage, it appears things are shaping up for the U.S. to be able to chew through this big old-crop pile and the new crop pile coming on, this month and next. It already pays to store corn until next spring. So, it looks like $4.00 is doable and maybe even a march towards $5 or higher next spring. These are my 2¢ on this Friday, September 18.

 

Do you care to sit and have a cup of cyberspace coffee? Have a seat and let me know what you think of the rationale.

 

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.10 lower.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen lower, as the trade digestst he Fed Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

World Markets = Europe stocks were mosly lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

 
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7 Replies
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

If you get corn to $4.50 in the spring how many acres are we going to plant?   With world beans stocks as high as they are and China demand increasing slower than last year seems beans will want to give away acres.   

 

Would $4.50 get 95M acres of corn?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

Kstater85,

 

You bring up a valid question. And I will be able to answer it much better in January, maybe late December. Why then? We'll know how South America's soybean crop is doing at that time. Mainly Brazil's crop. But, yes, it is a good point about higher prices attracting more acres. This winter should be very telling, regarding demand for U.S. corn and Brazil's soybean year.

 

Mike

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

My part of WCMN is 'traditionally' a corn, small grains, & hay area.  We have only grown significant soybean acres for about 25 years.  Even though many of the dairy cattle have left, things seem to be trending back a bit to small grains and hay to rotate with corn.  I'm sure the outlook on the soybean market will continue to encourage that.  BTW: Took out the first soybean field, about 44-45 bu/acre, in line with what I expected, and above average for my soils.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

Hello boys,

 

I just read something really important and wanted to share with you. Frank Zhou, general manager of trading at Cargill Investment in China, said in a conference that the Chinese demand for soybeans will drop in 2015/2016 due to the slowdown at the economy. Zhou assesses that the Chinese demand reached a limit. Reports say that the swine production in China is recovering from losses and will take some time to rebuild the number of herds and that impacts demand.

 

In the meantime, China's National Center of Grain and Oil Information still estimates the total soybean demand at 78 million metric tons at the season ending in September of 2016. That is one million tons more than the previous season.

 

What do you think?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

China still has to eat, they will still buy beans. We are the only one's taking the bait. Works every time.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

I think they are talking out of both sides of their mouths. It will benefit them either way.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 18

A positive thought sure is fun to consider---- thanks ,,,,, I am going to give it some thought.... and savor it and ignore reality for a day or two..    Thanks mike..

It is like a a negative thought  in one way ------ eventually it will be right half the time...

 

China/beans,   If the price is right they will buy more than expected for less than expected,,,,, and it should be getting right ..... a real discount to recent years...

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