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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk September 2

NOTE: Farm Futures Markets Will Be Closed Monday for Labor Day Holiday. Electronic markets will open at 7pm, Monday night.

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At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 1 1/2 cents lower at $3.67 1/2.  Nov. soybean futures closed unchanged at $8.74.

Dec. wheat futures ended 7 1/4 cents lower at $4.79.

Dec. soymeal futures finished $2.20 per short ton higher at $310.30. Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.46 lower at $27.09. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.09 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 163 points higher.

Mike

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At 12-Noon:

CME Group announced Wednesday that ag commodities daily trade volume for August rose 25% vs. a year ago.

 

CME Group agricultural commodities volume averaged 1.3 million contracts per day, up 25 percent from August 2014, the company press release stated Wednesday.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec. corn futures are trading 3 1/4 cents lower at $3.65.  Nov. soybean futures are trading 7 1/4 cents lower at $8.66.

Dec. wheat futures are 8 1/2 cents lower at $4.77.

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.20 per short ton lower at $306.90. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.49 lower at $27.06. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.72 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 110 points higher.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Dec. corn futures are trading 1 cents lower at $3.68.  Nov. soybean futures are trading 2 cents higher at $8.76.

Dec. wheat futures are 2 cents lower at $4.83.

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $0.10 per short ton higher at $308.20. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.08 higher at $27.63. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.22 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 81 points higher.

Mike

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At 7:30am:

Allendale Survey Finds 2nd Largest Corn and Soybean Yields Ever.

 

The following numbers represent Allendale’s estimates for the September 11, 2015 USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Report, not a final year estimate.

Allendale, Inc 2015 Nationwide Yield Estimate

                                        Corn                                  Soybeans

2015 Survey Yield       167.1bu./acre                       45.4 bu./acre

2015 Survey Production* 13.548 billion bushels      3.791 billion bushels

 

 

Estimated Frost Free Dates

                                    Corn                         Soybeans

North Dakota              09/13/15                     09/20/15

South Dakota              10/06/15                     09/27/15

Minnesota                    09/25/15                      09/23/15

Wisconsin                     09/26/15                      09/27/15

Michigan                       10/22/15                      10/03/15

 

USDA August 12, 2015 Reported Numbers

                               Corn                              Soybeans

Harvested Acres    81.101                                83.549

Yield                         168.8                                   46.9

Production              13.686                                   3.916

 

 

Mike

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At 7:15am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.42 lower.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, after the worst start to September in 13 years.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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11 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 2

Yep ! Allenfale
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 2

LOL! If you used the Pro Farmer estimate of 164 bu on corn, you would come out to 13.284 billion bushels. Given the latest dry spell in the eastern cornbelt, you can shave a couple bushels off the soybean estimate too. Mike, I just want to know why nobody will use the FSA numbers? I reported my acres after planting and handed the paper work to my crop insurance agent, right along with thousands of other farmers. FSA's 4.5 million unplanted corn and soybean acres vs USDA's 900,000 unplanted acres is a big deal! Why even use tax dollars to staff FSA offices? The reality of this crop will be seen, but it will be seen after many have to pay bills and the grain has been stolen! Sorry Mike, rant over.
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 2

Just the fact you posted them numbers I have lost all respect for your intelligence lol the biggest joke of a market ever. Crooks!!
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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 2

Sorry, I just don`t see it here. Small corn ears. Beans begging for a shower...............

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 2

Thanks again, Mike.  Seriously, you are appreciated, you are the messenger, no arrows here with your name on them.  I read your comments normally more than once per day, and totally miss them when absent.

 

That said -- somebody needs to be setting up a big spreadsheet to track the forecasts or predictions, beginning last January, and comparing them to the final post-harvest answers -- acres planted, acres harvested, yields, total production, carryover.  Historical comparisons, beginning to end, would also be helpful.  Then, we could really see the accuracy (or lack thereof) of the interim forecasts from different sources.  Especially in years like this one where the reports, various forecasts, and anecdotal reports from us farmers seem to vary widely.

 

AND, there is no reason for USDA to put out numbers that contradict themselves based on readily available and/or already published information from USDA itself.  Isn't FCIC (crop insurance), FSA, NASS, etc., all various parts of the USDA "service" umbrella?

 

My opinion has been, and remains -- USDA tends to be a negative influence on grain prices, moreso than a positive influence, reasons for this do not matter -- USDA reports do impact futures prices -- USDA reports are not strictly factual, they include observations and/or forecasts that are based on someone's opinions and/or people with influence -- the USDA and futures markets tend to "follow" production down and prices up, yet they tend to "lead" production up, and prices down -- the "leading" negative influence from USDA tends to start each year with the very 1st reports of their forecasted acres, yields, production and carryover for the coming crop year -- they "follow" with adjustments to alter their forecasts only after factual information proves it is necessary.  And, yes, I realize that was more than one opinion, lol.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 2

Good one Mike ! I am going to lmao when Issie Moves your post from Allen to the Agri - Laugh section  Smiley Very Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 2

WCMO,

 

Thanks for your kind words about my coverage. I learned long ago that not everyone would agree with the information that I aggregrate. In fact, I don't even agree with it all of the time. But, I don't do this job looking for only that information of which I agree with. I do offer my opinion, rarely. But, even then, it doesn't stop me from tracking down information that represents the other side of my opinion. In one simple term, it is called J-O-U-R-N-A-L-I-S-M.

 

Anyway, I failed to include crop estimates released yesterday from FC Stone:

The estimates were near the lower end of the trade's estimates, with a corn yield of 165.9 bpa and a bean yield of 45.4 bpa. Informa is expected to put its estimates out on Thursday.

 

I would suggest that everyone should keep in mind that the U.S. production area is One Big Field. And in any field, you will find some drowned out spots, weaker soil type, a hill or other change of topography, areas of compaction, etc. Ask yourself, this year, are there enough bad spots in that One Big Field?

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 2

U.S. imports ethanol for only the second time this year, according to a Renewable Fuels Association press release.

 

According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 948,000 barrels per day (b/d)—or 39.82 million gallons daily. That is down 4,000 b/d from the week before and the lowest rate of output in 16 weeks. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 958,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 14.69 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 19.0 million barrels. That is a 2.0% increase from last week and a four-week high.

Ethanol imports appeared for only the second time this year, with 12,000 b/d entering the U.S. last week.

 

Mike

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 2

Bin locks for sale at Rawhide Enterprises Inc LLC. Buy 13 binlocks and get the 12th free! Only $39.95 each + postage and handling.

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