Floor Talk September 2

[Tony_Dreibus]

After the close:

U.S. ethanol exports totaled 69.3 million gallons (mg) in July, a 49% jump over June shipments and the highest monthly total since April. Canada (19.9 mg), Brazil (15.2 mg), and India (11.2 mg) were top destinations, while China was conspicuously absent from the market for the second straight month. Year-to-date exports stood at 516.4 mg, implying an annual total of 885.3 mg for calendar year 2016.

Exports of denatured fuel ethanol tallied at 22.0 mg, up 7% from June. As usual, Canada was the top market for denatured product for fuel use, taking in 19.9 mg. Peru was the only other major customer for denatured fuel ethanol exports, receiving 2.1 mg.

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the Sep. corn futures finished 5 1/2¢ higher at $3.16 1/2, while Dec. futures settled 4 3/4¢ higher at $3.28 1/2 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures closed 9 1/2¢ higher at $9.68 1/2, while Nov. soybean futures closed 8 3/4¢ higher at $9.52 1/2. Sept. wheat futures ended 5¢ higher at $3.73 1/4. Sep. soymeal futures closed $0.60 short ton lower at $313.70. Sept. soyoil futures settled $0.46 higher at 32.66¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.18 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 56 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Sep. corn futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.15, while Dec. futures are 4¢ higher at $3.27 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures are 9 1/2¢ higher at $9.68, while Nov. soybean futures are 8¢ higher at $9.51. Sept. wheat futures are 6¢ higher at $3.74. Sep. soymeal futures are $1.80 short ton lower at $311.30. Sept. soyoil futures are $0.82 higher at 33.02¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.20 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 78 points higher.

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity’s Director of Grains and Energy, says the price support is coming from lower-than-expected yield reports and lack of farmer-selling.
We are getting yield reports from early harvest less than expected,” Ward says. “This is coming from our own customers harvesting in Kansas and in Oklahoma, but also from other reliable sources in Mississippi, Missouri and Illinois.”
A lot of the support in corn is also coming from lack of selling too, Ward says. “The old crop corn got sold out at what looks like the low of the market. So hopefully, producers had the wherewithal to buyback some Dec options or some reasonable way to own it. Funds are obviously holding a huge short in corn and maybe some of that gets covered in with these early yield reports and a new month of trade.”
 
Informa, the private analyst firm, estimated the U.S. 2016 corn yield at 174.8 bushels per acre and soybeans at 49.5 bpa.
“I thought Informa’s corn number was bearish. So, upside may be limited here in the short-term, following that number. And, FC Stone will release its new crop yield estimates after the close.
The soybean market is interesting, with little dispute of these high yield estimates of 49 or 49.5, and even whispers of 50-51 bu/acre.
“We have sold off to test $9.30 support, business has certainly picked up on the break. So, now we take pause and see if we hear any yes or no on these new record bean yields. If we do see actual soy yields move above 50 bu/acre, I would expect a price test of $9.00/bu, and keep in mind spec length is long beans and meal and underwater on all positions,” Ward says.
This is where the sell pressure is coming. I think the producer has done a great job marketing beans, we saw quite a few get sold last week above $10.00 and now selling from the farm has slowed on this 80-cent price break.
If Arlan Sunderman’s tweets are any indication of their number it likely goes up from 175, he has tweeted a seasonal adjusted yield based on ratings at 177 bu/acre.

Mike

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At 11am:

The markets are up and so are the private analysts yield estimates.

Informa pegged the U.S. corn yield estimate Friday at 174.8 bu./acre and soybeans at 49.5 bpa

What say you?

Mike

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At 9:50am:

CME Group's August agricultural trade volume averaged 1.2 million contracts per day in August 2016, down 11 percent from August 2015.

Mike

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In early trading:

At 9:05am, the Sep. corn futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.15, while Dec. futures are 4¢ higher at $3.27 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures are 11 1/2¢ higher at $9.70, while Nov. soybean futures are 11¢ higher at $9.54. Sept. wheat futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.72. Sep. soymeal futures are $1.20 short ton higher at $314.30. Sept. soyoil futures are $0.50 higher at 32.70¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.19 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 112 points higher.

Mike

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Prices were higher overnight as strong demand continues. New-crop corn and bean sales were again solid as low prices and a relatively weak dollar keeps drawing buyers looking for a bargain. More rain is expected for parts of Iowa and Illinois this weekend, while the eastern Midwest is again expected to dry out. 

Here's what happened overnight:

Brent Crude Oil = 1.5% higher.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 1.3% higher.

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures slightly higher in overnight trading. 
World Markets = Global stocks rise on higher oil prices. 

[jec22]

The jobs report is a miss, and the DOW is up 100+ points.  Grains need whatever stocks are smoking.

[elcheapo]

1.2 million contracts per day..........and there is no interest nor demand in the farm commodities ?

[elcheapo]

Look at the numbers.....

Just think where we would be without ethanol.

Maybe Chicago needs to rethink things.

We are still exporting corn.....I say at a record

Amount......

Why ? Not only are we exporting in the form of
Grain....but something we never did 10 yrs
Ago....in the form of ethanol.....22 MILLION
Barrels a month.....how many bu in corn is
That ?

Looking at that.....we have done a damn good job
Of exporting

Wonder if could do that good exporting the Chicago
Crowd ??????

Problem is.....there is ZERO demand for them
Anywhere !!!