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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, September 23, 2019

First Day of Fall and the markets are rallying!! Whoo Hoo!!!

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At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.73 3/4. March corn futures ended 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.84.

Nov. soybean futures settled 9 3/4¢ higher at $8.92 3/4. Jan. soybean futures finished 9 1/2¢ higher at $9.06 1/2.

Dec. wheat futures settled 1 1/4¢ lower at $4.83.



December soymeal futures closed $3.60 per short ton higher at $296.80.

December soy oil futures finished $0.09 lower at 29.31¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.50 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points higher.

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.73 3/4. March corn futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.84.

Nov. soybean futures are 13 1/4¢ higher at $8.96 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 12 3/4¢ higher at $9.09 1/2.

Dec. wheat futures are 1/4¢ lower at $4.84.



December soymeal futures are $3.40 per short ton higher at $298.40.

 December soy oil futures are unchanged at 29.40¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.19 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 28 points higher.

Chinese importers bought about 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Monday, or about 600,000 tons.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the soybean market is reacting positively to China’s recent purchase of U.S. soybeans.

“Soybeans are the leader, here. I think this mostly has to do with both the U.S. and Chinese trade people saying the talks went well last week. Export sales were good, too, but I think the news is that we are still making progress here and maybe we can even sell a few bushels more of beans before all is said and done. It was a wet weekend, but a wet weekend for corn too and it is really the beans that are reacting. Not any producer selling that I know of either, here, or in Brazil. Brazil is still too dry. Some places in Parana got rains and will be planting but still dry to the north,” Scoville says.

Mike

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At 8:53am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 3¢ higher at $3.73 3/4. March corn futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $3.85.

Nov. soybean futures are 13 1/4¢ higher at $8.96 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 12 3/4¢ higher at $9.09 1/2.

Dec. wheat futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $4.86.



December soymeal futures are $3.90 per short ton higher at $298.90.

 December soy oil futures are $0.11 higher at 29.51¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.17 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 55 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the grain markets are moving into a trading channel with prices up one week down the next week..

“The lows made two weeks ago in corn and soybeans are important long-term lows. I do not look for a "V" type of bottom, but rather the start of basing type market action where the nearby futures post a series of higher highs and higher lows,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “I am watching the rain forecast for central Brazil, where it has turned very dry. It is too early to take yields down – yet. However, later planting of the soybeans will result in later planting for double-crop corn. It will also delay when Brazilian soybeans are available for export,” Kluis stated.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, September 23, 2019

Nothing like being late to the party I asked the question maybe 2 weeks ago "How dry does it have to be for a rain forest to burn"....

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 23, 2019

The Amazon has a rainy and a dry season. 

The rainy season typically gets 6-12 FEET of rain.

The dry season (June-August) typically gets around 6 INCHES of rain.

They do the slash-and-burn during the dry season (which they stated in the following article, as also noted above, was particularly dry this year).

https://en.mercopress.com/2019/08/28/insufficient-rainfall-forecasted-as-brazil-s-amazon-dry-season-...

So the answer to your question:  It must be pretty dry there this year.

It would be interesting to research whether Argentina and Brazil historically fall into the severe drought cycle during an Earth-cooling phase.  If so, it takes the competition out of the game.

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