Floor Talk September 24

[marketeye]

At the close:

The December corn futures finished 4 cents higher at $3.29.

November soybean futures closed 1/2 of a cent higher at $9.36.

December wheat futures ended 4 1/4 cents higher at $4.80.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract finished $0.90 per short ton lower at $308.00; Dec. soybean oil futures closed $0.40 higher at $32.72.

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.48 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 157 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The December corn futures are trading 3 1/2 cents higher at $3.29.

November soybean futures are trading 2 cents higher at $9.38.

December wheat futures are 6 3/4 cents higher at $4.82.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract trading $1.40 per short ton lower at $307.50; Dec. soybean oil futures traded $0.55 higher at $32.87.

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.38 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 92 points higher.

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity grain analyst, says inclement harvest weather in Brazil is supporting the wheat market.
“One point of concern, brought up this morning from our weather guys, is a very wet forecast for Parana. Their forecast for rain later this week is 5-10” of rain, which would be negative to the wheat harvest which is 40% complete. This would lower wheat quality and cause some yield losses,” Ward says.
The wet weather could also create delays for soybean planting in Parana, Brazil, he says.
“Corn is up in sympathy with strength in wheat, but still lower for the week. And I consider the soybean trade thus far as more bearish. We are 7 cents off the soybean lows of the week, but still nearly 20-cents/bushel lower for the week,” Ward says.
Ward adds, “There were thoughts this morning we could see a decent bounce in beans on some short covering due to the weekly export report tomorrow (expected to show large soy bookings) and also because of the monthly Grain Stocks report due out next Tuesday which should tighten up the soybean supply.”

Other Notes: Some yield reports out of Minnesota are coming in today. This source says, "The early group 1.0 soybeans are a record, just tremendous. We have a NW Minnesota customer that has taken 300 acres and avg is 60 bushels/acre. Expected 45 bushels out of them.
 
Some silage being cut in MN is disappointing, but in the area we thought was bad which is the Hwy 212 area which is towns like Bird Island, Olivia, Renville, but early silage numbers from credible cattle sources are 5-10% less than last year.
 
In Janesville, MN 6 acres of high moisture corn for cattle yesterday and it yielded 180 bushels/acre, that same field was corn last year and it did 239 bushels/acre. I am not running too far with this information yet until I get whole field averages, but have heard the last 2 days some disappointment out of MN. We have thought all along though that MN is too high on their yield guess of 170 bushels/acre which is 10 bpa better than last year. We think it’s smaller than that in our own state."

Mike

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At the open:

The December corn futures are trading 1 cent higher at $3.27 per bushel.

November soybean futures are trading 3 cents higher at $9.39.

December wheat futures are 5 cents higher at $4.81.

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.42 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points higher.

Mike

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At 7:00am:

Early calls: Corn is 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.44 per barrel lower.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Seen higher, as U.S. housing data, for August, is expected today.
World Markets = Europe stocks were mostly lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

Oil World, the German consultancy, is the latest to feed the soybean bears.

This story was published Wednesday by a Brazilian media source, Agriculture Notice.

"The production of 10 major oilseeds is expected to register a 4.3% increase in 2014/15 season and reach a record 519.7 million tonnes from 498.2 million in 2013/14 season, according to a projection of Oil World.

One of the main factors of this increase are higher projections for soybean crops in Brazil and the United States. Thus, world production was estimated by Oil World in 310 800 000 tonnes, against 30.67 million estimated last month. In 2013/14 cycle, soybean growers harvested globally 285.2 million tons.

For the United States, estimated by the German consultancy volume is 106.5 million tonnes, against 92.1 million the previous year -safra. About the American ending stocks, the expected number is something close to 12 million tonnes, much higher than the 3.4 million of the season 13/14 number.

"A phenomenal crop is being harvested in the United States this year. Favorable weather conditions mean that the last barriers that separate the crop in the United States market are being removed. A great offer is still setting the tone of the prices," said advisory note.

In the last 12 months, soybean prices fell 29% on the Chicago Stock Exchange, the worst performance in the index of prices of commodities in the international news agency Bloomberg. "Three consecutive years of increases in soybean production are causing the market to pass the stage of scarcity to an excess. And, with this scenario, prices could fall, at least temporarily, below the cost of production, which implies even lower values ​​compared to the current, depending on the production of each region, "the statement from Oil World," according to Noticias Agricolas.

[sw363535]

Bean harvest hasn't started yet in US. --- false statement by advisor

[NateWCMN]

Beans were being harvested in southern Nebraska along 81 on Sunday.  If it hadn't rained a bit here last night guys would be going full bore on the early beans in W. Central MN.  A few small fields have been taken out already.