Floor Talk September 26

[marketeye]

VIDEO: Interesting thoughts from the floor, with Scott Shellady.

Grain Puts, Interest Rates Eyed

--------------------

At the close:

The December corn futures settled 3 cents lower at $3.23.

November soybean futures finished 12 1/2 cents lower at $9.10.

December wheat futures closed 3/4 of a cent higher at $4.74.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract closed $3.30 per short ton lower at $300.60; Dec. soybean oil futures settled $0.69 lower at $32.01.

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.83 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 195 points higher.

Mike

-----------

At mid-session:

The December corn futures are trading 1 cent lower at $3.25.

November soybean futures are trading 8 cents lower at $9.14.

December wheat futures are 1 3/4 cents higher at $4.75.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract trading $2.00 per short ton lower at $301.90; Dec. soybean oil futures traded $0.59 lower at $32.11.

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.32 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 64 points higher.

Dustin Johnson, EHedger LLC grain analyst, says the grain markets are lower from ongoing harvest pressure and ongoing record yield reports. "Plus, the US Dollar index continues to push into 4-year highs.  And, comments that China may be suspending the license to import a particular strand of US GMO beans is helping to push beans to new contract lows.  Hearing reports of a lot of old crop corn still getting sold/delivered to make way for bin space."

Mike

------------

At the open:

The December corn futures are trading 1 cent lower at $3.24 per bushel.

November soybean futures are trading 9 cents lower at $9.13.

December wheat futures are 4 cents lower at $4.70.

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.30 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 67 points higher.

Mike

---------

At 7:00am:

Early calls: Corn is 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.30 per barrel higher.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Seen higher, as the 2nd Quarter GDP is announced Friday.
World Markets = Europe stocks were mostly lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

The U.S. Wheat Associates released this statement Friday:

"U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) were notified Friday, September 26, 2014, that USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has completed its investigation into the May 2013 discovery of an unapproved Roundup Ready (RR) trait in isolated volunteer wheat plants. APHIS has determined that the source of the RR trait is inconclusive but reconfirmed that there is no indication that any wheat with this regulated trait has entered the commercial supply chain. This is consistent with the results of independent testing by Japan and Korea that has not identified a single event among all classes of U.S. wheat exported to those countries. APHIS also noted that in 2004, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration concluded that the Roundup Ready trait in wheat did not pose a health risk in food or animal feed."

I know world wheat cheaper than the U.S. wheat, but maybe this helps us gain street cred on the world market?

Mike

[Blacksandfarmer]

Mike, what GMO trait of soybean might that be?

[marketeye]

Dunno. The release didn't name it.

Mike

[Palouser]

RU Ready wheat was found growing in Montana at a research station more than 10 years after it was tested there.

'Street cred'? I don't think so! The PNW markets froze up for several months. I know. I put some wheat up for sale the day before it was news and couldn't figure out why there was no response for the fiirst time in my life. I lost money.

Meanwhile, I've tried to pry information loose from APHIS for some time and they wouldn't talk. Monsanto maintained 'terrorists' were to blame! Which was asinine for a whole pocket full of reasons. As it stands we have NO idea how the seeds survived and where they were - except that the varieties apparently are the same as tested in the regions.

I remember when Monsanto was pressuring the grower organizations to back the release of RR wheat even though our buyers rejected the idea 100%. They said they were creating a method for IP but - it was a secret and they couldn't say what it was. Total PR hogwash. Never mentioned again. Monsanto was VERY aggressive toward OSU when they identified the RR variety found in a farmer's field last spring and tried to undercut their abilities, lab results and reliability. I also suspect that APHIS may have been intimidated to some degree. In any case, APHIS came out with a strong "we don't know' as a conclusion.

The seed was held in two locations. By Monsanto in St Louis and the USDA in a secured repository in Colorado. Monsanto will never admit ultimate responsibility. There could still be more RR seed out there multiplying to cause a future problem. If there is we certainly don't know where. You can throw 'street cred' right out the window!

[Red Steele]

First yield report I heard on Southern MN soybeans was 63-64 bpa, hauled straight to town, of course. The second yield report was 67 bpa. Once you set the ante that high, you need 70 bpa or higher to stay in the bragging game. I wonder if the reports will top 100 bpa by the time everyone gets rolling.