Floor Talk September 30, 2021 (Report Day)

[marketeye]

At 11:00am:

BEARISH REPORT> The bean production raised 80.0 million bushels.

USDA SAYS:

On Thursday, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean ending stocks, as of Sept. 1, higher than the trade estimates.
As a result, the CME Group's farm markets traded lower, following the report.

For corn, the USDA pegged the Sept. 1 quarterly grain stocks at 1.23 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 1.15 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the quarterly grain stocks were pegged at 256 million bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 174 million.
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat quarterly grain stocks at 1.78 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectation of 1.85 billion bushels.

2020/2021 U.S. Crop Production.

For corn, the U.S. 2020/2021 production is estimated at 14.11 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectation of 14.17 billion bushels and the previous USDA estimate of 14.18 billion.

The soybean production is pegged at 4.21 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectation of 4.13 billion bushels and the USDA's previous estimate of 4.13 billion bushels.

U.S. Wheat Production 2021/2022
In its report, the USDA pegged the All Wheat production at 1.60 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectation of 1.68 billion bushels and the USDA's August estimate of 1.69 billion bushels.

Mike

-----------

At 8:45am:

Ag markets trade higher Thursday.

Mike

[cborman11]

Another bs report and complete lie by the usda,doing everything they can to keep a lid on these prices.

[wrightcattle]

Basis in most regions indicates things are a lot more current than the USDA supposedly is. 

Relax,  enjoy the comedy show. 

[illinifarmer]

Wow, thieves and c rooks, the lot.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Reports all over Iowa of 70 to 90+ bu beans.

Basis is -50 at crusher.

No immediate danger of a bean shortage here.

[sdholloway56]

Methinks they found some of the stuff Sonny hid in the basement.

I always thought they'd be very incremental about it, but who knows, maybe they are?

[wrightcattle]

on a lot of Minn,  SoDak,  NoDak where bout 1/4 of the total USA beans are grown. 

And there's folks feel lucky if they go over 10 bu to this fall. 

It'll be interesting the total USA estimated average. 

Course folks just gonna store like last year.....LOL.  USDA has rich farmers who supposedly stored 15 and change beans and 7 corn.  

[Hobbyfarmer]

Yes those farmers are out there and they do in fact exist.

BTW, beans went over $17 cash earlier this year.

Also the outside long bean bunker just south of Sioux Falls S D was being filled last Friday. 

There is a crop in South Dakota, it just isn't the bin buster of the last couple of years.

Also saw them literally filling a milo bunker just east of Kennabeck SD. Was gettimg long. 

Yes i did see some really poor stuff.

Going to be a lot of train loads just the same come out of there.

[cborman11]

You don't just find 80 million bushels of grain and just find millions of more acres planted, you just don't report them and save them for when you gotta stop prices from going up usda has been doing this for years. There is a farmer out there that believes anything they report.

[timetippingpt]

10 bullish reports in a row wasn't enough for you to be satisfied?  🙂

Or think of it another way, is your yield monitor within 1% of actual at all times? Ours isn't and we calibrate throughout the day as conditions change. Our monitors can easily be off 4% just over-night in beans.  Inbound Semi-truck scales and cart scales are powerful tools, if nothing else to keep you humble.