Floor Talk September 30 (REPORT DAY)

[Tony_Dreibus]

After the close:

CFTC Report Friday shows the funds are now net short the corn market by 177,000 contracts, adding to their already large short position. For soybeans, the funds are now long 58,000.

Mike

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USDA SAYS:

Corn Stocks, as of Sept. 1, 1.738 billion bushels, slightly below trade estimates of 1.754 billion.

Soybean Stocks=  197 million, just slightly below trade thoughts of 201 million bushels.

Wheat Stocks=   2.52 billion  bushels, higher than the trade's estimate of 2.397 billion.

TRADE REACTION:

--Nick Mueller, Senior Market Advisor for Stewart-Peterson, says that the stocks came in pretty much as expected.  
“What the report did confirm is that at current prices we are showing very good usage (demand).  So that is positive prices going forward.  We will probably go right back to trading harvest weather and yield results before the end of the day.  Given what I am hearing and the trend started on the USDA supply demand report in Sept I expect the bean crop to continue to  get larger with better yields and the corn crop to continue to get slightly smaller.  Also given where the funds are positioned I think the downside to corn starts to become limited here.   They have a large short position so I’m not sure who would be the new seller entering the market to push futures below 310.  On the contrary the funds have a rather lofty net long position in the bean market.  This would make me cautious to potential downside in the beans should they decide to liquidate.”

--Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says that the report is a little bullish for beans and corn as the stocks came in on the low side of expectations.  
“For the wheat market, it’s kind of a mixed bag with production a little less than expected but the stocks a little higher than expected,” Scoville says.  
Overall kind of a yawner, but not a reason to sell, Scoville says.  
“Selling coming from production bears, but the fact is the farmer is not selling and the market needs beans and corn.  Market moved a little lower after the report for some reason, now a little higher as it probably should be,” Scoville says.
 
--Jason Ward, Director of Grains and Energy, Northstar Commodity Investment, says the report is no big shocker.
“I’d call it neutral corn/soybeans, bearish to the wheat.”

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.36 3/4, while March futures finishede 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.46 1/2 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $9.54, while Jan. soybean futures settled 3¢ higher at $9.59 1/4. Dec. wheat futures ended 3¢ higher at $4.02. Dec. soymeal futures closed $0.90 short ton higher at $299.60. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.10 higher at 33.44¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.41 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 196 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.27, while March futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $3.36 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $9.46, while Jan. soybean futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $9.51. Dec. wheat futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $3.90 3/4. Dec. soymeal futures are $1.90 short ton lower at $296.80. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.09 higher at 33.43¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.18 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 167 points higher.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Dec. corn futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $3.26, while March futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $3.36 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures are 3/4¢ higher at $9.51, while Jan. soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $9.57. Dec. wheat futures are 3¢ lower at $3.96. Dec. soymeal futures are $1.70 short ton lower at $297.00. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.35 higher at 33.69¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.12 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 103 points higher.

Mike

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Soybeans were down 2 1/2 cents and corn was off by 1 1/2 cents overnight amid harvest pressure and as investors stay on the sidelines awaiting the Sept. 1 grain stocks report that's due at noon in Washington today. The weather is expected to be dry for much of the Midwest this weekend, though flooding continues in Iowa and Illinois with the Mississippi River at Rock Island and Dubuque over its banks. 
 

Here's what happened overnight:

Brent Crude Oil = 1% lower.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.4% lower.

Dollar = up 0.3%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures slightly lower in overnight trading. 
World Markets = Global stocks lower, following crude futures. 

[marketeye]

In case you missed it, USDA announced more fresh sales Friday.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

--Export sales of 118,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/2017 marketing year; and

--Export sales of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/2017 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Mike

[sw363535]

11:52 am  

And we just had a solid turn around in corn etc.

What happened ...... another sale.?

No a report from Uncle......  Well we know nothing more but we believe it....

Corn stocks down....... Our area will take it to 1.6 and maybe farther as harvest goes by... The sw region

Soybean stocks ......... How could this go down with all the Hype of bean yields...... oh yea......... that sad little 7 letter word.... exports

wheat stocks........... A little increase....... well.... The new location -- on the ground-- will take care of that increase...But the world problems will need this "high quality wheat" as world stocks work down

I think Mr Mueller is right and the market is trading the harvest yield reports and weather already ----- This report begins the downward trend to get the hype corrected ........ maybe he's right... Farmers aren't selling...... They can't afford to with the preditary storage strategies going on...

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"Backyarditis" is a disease diagnosed by those who don't want to believe the man on the combine....