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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

Just go long and be wrong.......................again.  Better yet.......................... build another bin so you can store your 2010 crop and your 2011 crop..................................  Unlike MT that is always a bull....................................... I like to be a bul when I need to be a bull...................................... and a bear when I need to be a bear.............................................. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

Good question but probably not or maybe. How's that for government speak. It is always interesting that the USDA can correct last years numbers to make it alright. Somebody has to be right and somebody has to be wrong, remember we are in this together, the powers in this economic world like nothing better than the little people to blame each other.

Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

You didn't lose anything. You just didn't make as much on this given day. I bet you are smart enough to know you weren't going to to get it all anyway.

 

That is merely assessing risk and acting on it. Being wrong with money in your pocket is a good thing.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

A bigger mistake than forward contracting last fall was not taking advantage of even better opportunities this fall. Cautious optimism. Does that term seem familiar?

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

You know I can never remember......

 

What are the dates that fall price is set for RA crop insurance?

 

Just might be the silver lining here.......

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

MT,

 

Thanks for your input.  I don't think you have been as wrong some.  In fact the other day you said something doesn't feel right.  It is hard to pick tops and bottoms for sure.  Accepting a profit is hard some times. 

 

I fully expect this report to blow over.  Doesn't this report show that at the end of the day we used 500 million bushels we didn't produce?  Going into this year with a shorter crop and carryout  than last I would expect there to be some fireworks at some point.  This will actually encourage demand.

 

15 months ago we could have sold our corn below 3 dollars.  We have all been more right than wrong we still are farming.

 

Thanks,

 

Peace

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

If one remembers, last year this very same report was bearish.  Then, one week later the USDA released a very bullish October supply report that sent the market higher.  It's kind of like the weather.  If one doesn't like it today, wait a week for something better.  I wouldn't be terribly negative in here unless USDA actually increases the yield on the 2011 crop.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

DJ  It's Oct I was thinking the same thing' because I have some farms with low yields because of excess water' and greensnap, but then we need prices to rally higher after the ra prices are set.

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

Could it be possible, that the USDA has acreage numbers for the Oct. 12th report already..and they're so scared they "Had" to find more corn? I still don't quite buy it...the ethanol plant here is railing corn in..and we've got a lot of corn acres in NW Ohio. It doesn't make sense to me....that there is so much corn out there that wasn't known about.

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

Thank God for all the farmers raising enough to feed the world, one way or another!  Now if the inputs will only come down.

 

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