Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

[sw363535]

And USDA deals the cards and determines the winners and loosers.  

I think the market dealers got mad the year the drought interfered.

[Hobbyfarmer]

The current trend started with the big crop forecast last late winter by our beloved gov't. After several years of ol ma nature being firmly in charge, the trader's and speculators had the perfect opportunity to start a new trend. AFTER ALL The prices were way too high for anybody to make money.

Right now the trend is down with no end in sight. The commercials have no reason to participate in running the price up in their grain purchasing, there is some easy picking low hanging fruit to be picked here at harvest. Many growers have bills to pay..not negotiable. 

Got a call today from a farmer/grower in one of the high yielding areas, said his neighbor had started harvest with 18-20% corn making a consistent 265bpa. $2.70 local cash price and it wasn't going to pay the bills. Said he couldn't be profitable at those numbers either. 

Last year more than half sold beans right off the combine, the experts are saying do it again , bean prices are too high. Store the corn.  Stupid me would do just the opposite, beans store easily, corn takes so much more room and goes out of condition to a power of at least ten more than beans.

Get the corn out of here, buy it back on the board if y o u are so sure it has upside potential. Store the beans, the price starts with an 8 anyway already. First time in decades the prediction is for tight ending bean stocks for next summer. Way more upside potential in my stupid opinion.

$3 corn and $8 or less beans are going to create havoc with the over seas producers. One thousand miles or more to ship by truck at those numbers just ain't gonna work.

Boy ol boy is this going to be a show of who has been farming with out any  plan for a lean year or two.

Well time for me to get back in the cheap seats...pass the popcorn and hand me an Apple Ale

[Hobbyfarmer]

PS... I have thought and said something was out of whack when a small time farmer like me could capitalize to the extent that happened and have the lifestyle of someone historically much higher up the food chain than I. Looks like a rebalancing.

[vrbuck]

Prices dropped because we are refilling the pipeline with a huge new crop. 90 million carryout means nothing since they commercials made it to harvest time. The traders where expecting 140 million carryout and they got 90 million. 50 million out of a 500 million by carryout is still 450 million carryout and still too much. it is amazing all the planning by the commercials to stretch this crop out and make it to fall, and still make their commitments. In the end the trend is your friend and keep hedges is place. As a farmer/businessmen, with the hedges and insurance on top of the sold grain it will be a solid year. It reAlly pains me to read Ag talk and listen to all the conspiracy theories from the posters still there. It really is an embarrassment for farming to see them write those words and look for scapegoats. There is no balanced posting there since all the good posters have been chased away. It easy to tell a farmer not to sell but it is hard to tell them what they don't want to hear.

[perspec]

The markets are sometimes hard on us "fundamentalists".  We have to understand that the media moves the market because "they" know the future:)  Record low bean carry-out but market at 4 year lows!  Oh yeah, "they" know the yield already.  Time will tell.

The hog market is a great example of media influence. ( I think that USDA is nuetral but they also read the paper.) PED PED PED was the cry!  15-20% loss in numbers!  10% for the year! 

Pork production is almost even with last year.  Expansion has been underway.  Cold storage reports are negative.

Whoever wrote the stories on these massive PED losses should be ashamed of themselves.  Probably not going to see a retraction ......but I hear that there are monster yields all over the country!

Life goes on. 

[elcheapo]

Oh %$# with it all. These "markets" can get
on one's nerves. Someone said conspiracy
I really don't think that they are that smart
Or organized to do that, they would be too
Busy putting a knife in each others back.
I just think we have uncoupled from the
Commodity.
As I hate to say it vbuck is right in that must
Of the advisory groups still think down, but
Also think we should be getting closer to
Bottom.
I guess we just need to be smart enough
To know if ya can't beat them, join them.
But how do you know when to zig and
when to zag.
I'm looking at a few guru firms, with the idea
Have 3 or 4 of them. If they all agree it might
Be the right thing to do.

Anyhow, we might need to diversify a little,
farm, play the up down markets. I almost
Bought a bar the other day. 40 grand turn
Key, even a kitchen with a smoker.
I already have a interest in a place with a
Beer license, so know a little about it. I make
Nothing on it, but I am on the board.
I've always said its a good business, people
Celebrate, if hard times, they want to
Forget and numb the pain. I make $$$
Either way (like a commodity trader? ).
Figured have a reasonable lunch that everyone could come in, have a "too go"
Lunch special at harvest, so when the truck
Comes to town to dump, just stop
To pick up dinner and go back to field.

Worst come to worst have go go dancers
Once a month.....hey, were a small, quiet
Little town, we need a bit of excitement once
in a while!

But no wheat beer....I tried one a few years
Ago.....you know if the combines were out
in the rain for a while, and the grain sprouts
And stinks, and it takes two days for
The stink to rub off you....
Well the first sip of that beer, the odor from
The beer went up into my nose, and then
It tasted and smelled like that old stinky
Wheat.

[roarintiger1]

  There are many good posters on agtalk. But some of the posers are gone.