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Advisor
Posts: 3,976
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 1 1/4 cents lower at $3.87 3/4.  Nov. soybean futures ended 7 3/4 cents higher at $8.92.

Dec. wheat futures ended 9 cents higher at $5.12 3/4.

Dec. soymeal futures settled $3.50 per short ton higher at $309.00. Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.35 lower at $27.34. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.29 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 182 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-day:

At mid-day, the Dec. corn futures are trading 2 1/2 cents lower at $3.86.  Nov. soybean futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $8.83.

Dec. wheat futures are 5 1/4 cents higher at $5.09.

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $0.50 per short ton higher at $306.00. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.33 lower at $27.36. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.05 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 95 points higher.

Mike

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At 11:10am:

Corn is down a penny, soybeans are 6¢ higher and wheat up 4¢, as a result of the USDA Quarterly Stocks Report.

------------------

At 11am:

 

USDA/NASS SAYS:

 

Corn Stocks= 1.731 billion bushels, compared with 1.232 billion bushels a year ago.
 

Soybean Stocks= 190 million bushels, sharply higher than 92 million a year ago.

 

Wheat Stocks=  2.08 billion bushels, compared with 1.907 billion bushels a year ago.

 

U.S. Wheat Production=

 

What do you think? Too high on corn, too low on soybeans?

 

TRADE REACTION:

 

--Alan Brugler, President Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says that generally, smaller wheat production than expected, tightening stocks vs. perceptions. “Implied 1Q wheat use at 716 million bushels is 1% larger than last year despite smaller exports. Suggests heavy wheat feeding, although we are having trouble finding people who are actually doing it.”

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says that the report is price positive for soybeans and wheat, but neutral for corn.  "But, really nothing much one way or another.  Now back to harvest.  That is basically how I feel.  The wheat holding best on the production estimate, but we need to sell too, so I wonder if there is much upside.  Even so, none of these markets seem ready to go sharply lower right now.   We will go back to yield reports and the bears will try to drive this eown, but I am not sure they got enough now to get that job done.  Should make for some fun."


-- "The numbers will be shrugged off quickly and the market will trade harvest activity," Cory Bratland, Kluis Commodities says.
--Sal Gilbertie, Tecrium Trading, says that today’s grain stocks report offered little excitement, with average trade guesses reflected almost exactly for corn.
“Soybean stocks were slightly below expectations, but optimism about the current bean harvest seems to be offsetting the small surprise to the trade. Wheat supplies are more than adequate, although it is interesting to note that demand as reflected in the disappearance numbers is up one percent versus last year. Lower prices appear to be stimulating demand for all three big grains,” Gilbertie says.
Jacob Burks, First Capitol Ag grain analyst, says that the market traded the report for about 3 minutes. “And we are back in the range we have developed for the last couple of months.  No big surprises on the ending stocks number.  Remember producers, we are at the top side of this range with harvest speeding up.  USE PUT OPTIONS,” Burks says.

--"The numbers will be shrugged off quickly and the market will trade harvest activity," Cory Bratland, Kluis Commodities says.

 

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Dec. corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $3.90 1/2.  Nov. soybean futures are trading 4 3/4 cents higher at $8.89.

Dec. wheat futures are 1 3/4 cents higher at $5.05.

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $2.90 per short ton higher at $308.40. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.16 lower at $27.53. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.02 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 191 points higher.

Mike

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At 7:00am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher and wheat 3-5 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.08 lower.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Advisor
Posts: 1,398
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 30

Beans going up too confidently before the report. 

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 138
Registered: ‎06-17-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 30

Beans are back up after the report too.  Hit a monthly high today and closed strong.  I wouldn't have called it, but I'm wondering if the harvest low is now in and we see a rally off these six-year lows.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,605
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

They have no idea.


Bean stocks went up, maybe our spring harvest was higher than reported. 😉
Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,464
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

sw - I don't know who you were talking about here :  They have no idea.   But if it was the usda or  the Market Experts - it would be safe to say - you covered the base's very well  - good job  Smiley Happy

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,605
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

Ecin,   I just don't understand why usda or experts for that mater, maintain any credibility at all with our analysts and reporters when they suddenly, prior to harvest, add 100 million to the bean stocks number which was only 90 million a year ago......

That comment alone says that they were 110% wrong(100million/90m) a year ago and have been every month since.  Because only last falls crop could have accounted for that increase....... or usage has been miss stated..... but of course those are numbers that have been and are suposed to be "unquestionably" accurate.

 

I find little reason for the exercise ...... maybe two,,,, fear of government job security or outright price manipulation by an federal agency.   Or maybe it is those amazing declarations of accuracy that i find so irritating...   It should all be followed by a disclaimer....

"This data may cause gastric irritation but we guarantee no actual basis for this data"

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,226
Registered: ‎06-30-2010

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

For the majority of us who carry crop insurance, the USDA actually has information available to them to cross-check some of their data.  Acres are reported for crop insurance, FSA programs and NASS surveys -- acreage info should be fairly reliable by the end of July each year, and should be very reliable by the end of August.  Annual grain production gets reported for crop insurance, some FSA programs and NASS surveys -- deadlines stretch out pretty far, but most people report their crop insurance production fairly timely after harvest, so that information also gets fairly reliable by the end of December, and should be very reliable before planting time. NASS surveys are by sampling techniques, and responding to most of them is supposed to be "voluntary", but that is probably the primary source of farm-stored inventory information.  So, they should have pretty good acreage numbers, production numbers, usage numbers, import/export numbers and commercial storage numbers.  NASS statistics should be sufficient to test the validity of the farm-stored numbers.  Therefore, my opinion is that the huge differences can only be accounted for by stupidity, antiquated methodology, USDA agenda, flat-out manipulation, or some combination of those.