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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk September 4

After the close:

Good News: While the USDA left the corn, soybean ratings virtually unchanged Tuesday, the fast maturity is lessening the threat of an early frost, one analyst says. Crop Progress story.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract settled 5 1/4 cents higher at $8.05. Nov. soybean futures contract closed 11 3/4 cents higher at $17.68 1/4. Dec. wheat futures finished 3/4 of a cent lower at $8.88 1/2 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $1.14 higher at $58.22. The Dec. soymeal futures contract closed unchanged at $533.40.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.03 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 1:15pm:

The farm markets have pulled back. Wheat is lower, corn is just slightly higher, and soybeans are up 6 cents. One analyst says he isn't hearing much to pull this market down.

"Looks like we got high enough, maybe some farm selling although not picking that up so much and not real sure what else."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 11 3/4 cents higher at $8.11. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 18 3/4 cents higher at $17.75. Dec. wheat futures are trading 9 cents higher at $8.98 1/2 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.87 higher at $57.95. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.40 per short ton higher at $537.80.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.94 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 90 points lower.

 

One analyst says, "It's been a very strong market, today, and led by beans. There are rumors of additional Chinese demand. China has reportedly bought a bit over the weekend.  Japan bought some corn, but for a year out and is looking at alternatives for nearby feed needs.  All in all, harvest is set to expand now after Isaac, and it looks like the rains will not be too big.  Some more disappointing yield reports surfacing but I think very little actually got cut.  Seems like a quiet day in this office. So, maybe some spec action. But, so far, only limited selling interest from producers who are still not sure what they will harvest. Also, South America weather talk is starting up down there. Not much end-user interest yet, either.  The market acts strong and could work higher, most if not, all week.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 6 cents higher at $8.05. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents higher at $17.69. Dec. wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $8.93 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.58 higher at $57.67. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.40 per short ton higher at $537.80.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.46 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 78 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

--USDA announces Tueaday that 180,000 mt of U.S. corn was sold to Japan for 2013-14 delivery.

 

 

Mike

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At 7:55am:

Big week for private firms to release updated crop estimates:

--FC Stone Wednesday, AgResource on Thursday, Informa later in the week.

 

 

Mike

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At 7:20am:

Soybeans set all-time high record Tuesday at $17.94!!!

 

Don't look now, but very hot weather is setting up camp in northern Brazil. No rain is in the forecast for at least two weeks. This could impact a soybean crop that is expected to be planted in a matter of weeks. If planting is delayed, the crop's harvest dates would be impacted as well. The market is watching closely, as to when South America will deliver the world's next supply of soybeans. Oh boy, can you imagine what would happen if the hot/dry weather was extended for a lengthy period in Brazil this year?

 

On a sidenote, I have learned that Brazilian farmers broke a record for equipment purchases at last week's BIG farm show in Parana. Apparently, they are really gearing up to plant a monsterous soybean crop and a larger second-season corn crop, this year. Safras & Mercado, a private forecaster, estimated Monday that Brazil’s 2013 soybean crop could reach 82.25 million tons, up 24% from 2012 due to the record prices. The 2013 corn output is seen falling 6% to 68.03 mmt.

 

Mike

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At 6:35am:

Tom White, FutureRoad.net analyst and CME Group corn pit trader, says the charts indicate a longer-term bullish signal, but a neutral short-term one.

"After breaking down under a short-term trend line at the beginning of the week, we rebounded in the middle part of the week only to move lower on Thursday and Friday.  The market finished slightly lower on the week.  We still generally retain a longer-term bias to the long side but are neutral in the short-term. It appears that we continue to consolidate which is indicative of a fourth wave after the recent impulsive buying.  While positive reversals are still showing on the longer-term charts, RSI is weakening on the shorter-term patterns, i.e. the market lacks momentum to make another significant push higher for now.  We will also monitor the possibility that we could form a 'head-and-shoulders top' which would call the eventual resumed push higher into question."

 

Mike

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At 6:15am:

Early calls: Corn 9-11 cents higher, soybeans 18-20 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.64 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, ahead of economic reports and following Europe's stocks that ran higher Monday.

World=Mostly lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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14 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 4

On Monday, I drove northwest out of Chicago, across Interstate-90, to Rockford. I turned south on I-39 and hit I-88. From I-88, I traveled west to Iowa onto I-80. I went as far as Des Moines. In those 350 miles, I never saw one combine in the field. Though some corn looked ready, no harvest activity. I did see one farmer picking corn for silage. I'm now watching the weather for harvest season. Here's the latest Freese-Notis Weather Inc. radar:

 

interrad-1.gif

 

I've heard that the weekend rain hurt more than helped the Midwest crops. What say you?

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 4

Neighbor in Dixon, Illinois got a pond in his Corn  field.  I guess the 90 degree heat today will evaporate that.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 4

Allendale released its 2012 crop survey results Tuesday.

 

The Allendale Inc. 2012, 23nd Annual Crop Survey suggests a projected US corn crop of 10.326 billion bushels and a soybean crop of 2.602 billion bushels. This estimate was based on producer calculated yields in 32 states. It was conducted from August 20-31.
 
Nationwide Yield Data
                                                  Corn         Soybeans
2012 Survey Yield                     118.2           34.9
2012 Survey Production            10.326         2.602
 
Estimated high yield              250 bpa             80 bpa
County and State               Cimmeron, OK   Lancaster, PA
Estimated low yield                0 bpa         0 bpa
County and State                 (numerous)    (numerous)
 
Crop Development Data  
Nationwide Average Stage of Corn = Dent
Estimated frost free date          09/20         09/21  
 
Producer Price Expectations
                                 Dec Corn       Nov Beans
High                                885           1825
Low                                 735           1535
 
USDA August 12 Harvested Acres    87.361        74.635
USDA August 12 Yield               123.4          36.1
USDA August 12 Production         10.779         2.692 

 

 

Feel free to react to these numbers. What jumps out at you? The yield numbers maybe look a bit high, based on all of the crop that I witnessed and yields that I've heard. AgResource is reinforcing my thoughts. This morning, they wrote in an email to customers, Illinois yields are so poor that the state could average 100 bu./acre or below. Having said that, I don't think Allendale's data is out of line, though.

 

Mike

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jjoseph
Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk September 4

what weekend rain  ??????

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 4

jjoseph,

 

Didn't get any, huh?  Not sure where you are located, but rains could be coming to the eastern Corn Belt this week.

 

Mike

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 4

About Brazil:

 

In a strory written by Brazilian reporter Cassiano Ribeiro, the mounting logistical problems for the upcoming corn and soybean crops are highlighted. The story in the Gazeta do Povo website includes these highlights:

 

The next crop will have dimensions giants

- 51 million hectares to plant, a planter area that is record large.

- 176 million tons to collect and dispose of - 11 million more than last year.

- 4.5 million trips camilhão field stations to reception.

- 50 million tons of corn and soybeans for export.

- 800 ships to carry grain, two-thirds of them in the ports of Santos and Paranaguá.

 

Mike

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 4

I agree, Allendale's #'s seem a little high, esp. in beans from all the data and info i've read/heard about.

 

Looks like Brazil will have quite the clusterbleep on their hands.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 4

c-x-1,

 

Yes, they will. And they are worried about it on a lot of different levels. But first, they need favorable planting weather to get what they are calling  'super corn and soybean crops'.

 

Mike

 

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk September 4

Mike,

 

Super corn & soybeans, they say. Has the ring of some sort of mutant situation.

Wonder if they were able to get all the fertilizer unlodged at the port inland to farmers.

sounds like they might have good planting weather - hot/dry. U.S has some recent experience w/ that. It's the weather after planting which could become a concern, ay?

 

c-x-1

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