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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, September 6, 2019

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 3 1/4¢ lower at $3.54 1/4. March corn futures ended 3¢ lower at $3.68 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures settled 3 3/4¢ lower at $8.57 3/4. Jan. soybean futures ended 3 1/2¢ lower at $8.72.

Dec. wheat futures closed 2 1/2¢ lower at $4.63 1/4.



December soymeal futures finished $1.50 per short ton lower at $293.00.

 December soy oil futures closed $0.01 higher at 28.65¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.34 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 83 points higher.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.54 1/4. March corn futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $3.68.

Nov. soybean futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $8.57 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 3 1/2¢ lower at $8.72.

Dec. wheat futures are 4¢ lower at $4.62 1/4.



December soymeal futures are $0.80 per short ton lower at $293.70.

 December soy oil futures are $0.07 lower at 28.57¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.43 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 78 points higher.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that investors are watching yield estimates move the market.

“We are reacting to private analyst firms, FC Stone and Informa Economic’s production estimates. They are high,” Scoville says.

Informa is using a 169.6 bushels per acre estimate for U.S. corn and a crop size estimate of 13.906 billion bushels (USDA at 169.5 bpa, 13.901).

For soybeans, Informa pegged U.S. soybean yield at 48.4 bpa, while its crop size is estimated at 3.671 bil (USDA 48.5 bpa, 3.680 bil).


“I am hearing very good to possibly record yields in Texas corn and ideas that Delta corn is good, but I have not heard yield comments for the Delta. Corn in the Carolinas, irrigated maybe about 200 bpa, unirrigated/dryland anywhere from 20 to 50 bpa due to a very hot and dry June,” Scoville says.

 

Mike

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At 10am:

 

If you missed it, the delayed USDA Weekly Export Sales Report was released Friday.

 

On Friday, the delayed USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report shows strong soybean figures.

Corn= 582,600 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 600,000-950,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 857,800 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 50,000-700,000 mt.

Wheat= 312,100 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 400,000-900,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 227,100 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 150,000-325,000 mt.

 

Mike

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At 9am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 1/4¢ higher at $3.59. March corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.72.

Nov. soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $8.63 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $8.78.

Dec. wheat futures are 4¢ lower at $4.62 1/4.



December soymeal futures are $0.70 per short ton higher at $295.20.

 December soy oil futures are $0.07 higher at 28.71¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.17 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 89 points higher.


Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the farm markets remain choppy, as investors await next week’s USDA Supply/Demand Report.

“The back-and-forth action in US grain continues. One day corn is down hard, and then it’s soybeans. The weather looks good for the soybean crop to get bigger, so the funds added to their short position on Thursday. With the grain being under pressure the last several weeks, we could see a small short-covering rally next week leading into the September USDA Crop Production report,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The USDA will more than likely give us a somewhat negative Crop Production report next week. It is going to be real tough to gauge the size of this year’s crop given how immature the crop is as of this time of the year. The USDA will likely err by stating a bigger yield number than what we could see in the final January number.”

Mike

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5 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 6, 2019

"The USDA will likely err by stating a bigger yield number than what we could see in the final January number.”

Question -- When has this statement ever been untrue?  And, wouldn't that represent a bias to the USDA reporting?

Advisor

Beans are

Likely to be pretty " Chaffy " in many areas this year. 

A lot of empty pods..  There simply has not been enough daylight hours to make good beans. 

Beans were planted to late,  BTW a bunch of corn is to late too. 

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bluechev
Senior Reader

Re: Floor Talk, September 6, 2019

I am not as concerned about the size of this years crop asd I am last years corn bushels or demand estimates. I am wondering where the heck 2 billion bushel of carry over is because basis is hot and elevators around me are pretty much drive thru  dang near ghost towns

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, September 6, 2019

Ah yes, the baffling question, if 2 Bil is in the grain elevators bins (farmer bins are empty in Sept), why aren't the elevators selling it? Carry is horrifically negative to store at this point....   hmmmmmmm.......   :-)

Not that it matters, but this week is a great week to buy grains, all of them, especially MW I suspect. VR nailed it and covered a couple of days early, but darn near perfect for a guy from the land where corn will be piled in the streets (MN)

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, September 6, 2019

Why would anyone ship corn to MN and pile it in the streets?

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