Floor Talk September 6

[Tony_Dreibus]

At 2:25pm:

If you missed it, Thursday, Informa released its updated U.S. 2018 Crop Production estimates.

Corn=   178.8 bushels per acre.

Soybeans=   52.9 bu./acre.

Whoa! It seems like the estimates keep getting bigger and bigger. What say you?

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the December corn futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.66. March futures ended 1¢ higher at $3.78.



Nov soybean futures closed 1 1/4¢ higher at $8.39.  Jan. soybean futures finished 1 1/2¢ higher at $8.52 1/4.



Dec. wheat futures closed 8¢ lower at $5.13.

 Dec. soymeal futures settled $4.30 per short ton higher at $314.00.

Dec. soy oil futures closed 0.03¢ lower at 28.53.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.80 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 55 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the December corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.66. March futures are 1¢ higher at $3.78.



Nov soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $8.41.  Jan. soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $8.54.



Dec. wheat futures are 6 1/2¢ lower at $5.15.



Dec. soymeal futures are $4.60 per short ton higher at $314.30. Dec. soy oil futures 0.01¢ lower at 28.55.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.41 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 11 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the U.S. grain prices remain choppy as the traders patiently await harvest results.

“The US and Canada are back talking about a trade deal but so far nothing has been announced,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers Thursday.

He added, “Early harvest yields are starting to come in already. So far, they have been somewhat disappointing. However, keep in mind a lot of the early harvested grain is typically drought-stressed and sure to disappoint. The better-yielding crops will be harvested later.”


On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 101,736 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

Mike

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At 8:55am:
 


In early trading, the December corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.65. March futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.77.



Nov soybean futures are 3¢ lower at $8.35.  Jan. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $8.48.



Dec. wheat futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $5.17.



Dec. soymeal futures are steady per short ton at $309.70. Dec. soy oil futures 0.01¢ lower at 28.55.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.09 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 82 points higher.

Mike

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Wheat futures were again lower overnight on concerns about global supply after Russia said it wouldn't limit exports. Futures lost 2-3 cents overnight while corn and beans moved less than a penny. The farm bill conference committee that's tasked with finding common ground between the House and Senate versions of the bill met for the first time yesterday. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said lawmakers must make a deal by the end of the month, when the current bill expires. In weather news, remnants from Gordon are moving north, leaving excessive rainfall and flooding in its wake. Separately, almost the entire state of Missouri is under some sort of flood watch or warning. Check out today's 3 Big Things for all the details. 

West Texas Intermediate = up 0.3%.

Brent Crude = up 0.5%.

Dollar = down 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock higher pre-market.

World Markets = Global stocks lower overnight.

[sw363535]

The press (including SF) will never do research when speculation draws more flies, but here is the data even though it does not support the Fake News. Notice how those exports have fallen  

BEST Year in the last eleven........................  That is where we are during the trade war -----The truth does not support the narrative for the last seven months.

They keep spinning the trump haters propaganda ............ Will the predictions ever come true....??  Or just get repeated until the press is sure the best exports in eleven years were the worst of all time.

For sure it will be in print for years to come even if it never happens.

[giolucas]

sw,
Are you saying that trump has been good for the ag market?

[rayjenkins]

although I sincerely hope the strong pace continues, it should be noted that exports were front loaded to escape tariffs or the possibility of them being applied.....Mexico has done a good job of continuing to buy corn while negotiating the new NAFTA agreement

we'll know in another 2-3 months whether those summer exports were "the start of something big"......or something else

[sw363535]

Gio, 

A baited question.     If I were a hired writer to be the "by line" name, like a reuters "associate".(hired pencil/professional columnist).......then I could easily make that leap of imagination for a cause.....depending on my value in cash pay.   It's like the old west,  If you want to assassinate  someones character send a telegram for a hire "pencil".

In my 

weekly grain export sales analysis ------- through the last week of August    Bean exports for the year are finished...... Sept 1 begins the new year.....

For the completed sales year(the above charts are March through August data)...For the year The US exported 1.447 million metic tons more beans than the USDA projection.  53 million bushels over.

The month of August was the lagest export sales of the summer.  Not one week was without exports an the poorest (the week of july 4th) was nealy 15 million bushels on a three day work week.

Your right I am avoiding the question so here goes.......

IMO ...... Presidents do three things, they take credit, they get the blame, or they campaign .......... and I think they do way too much of all three.  The Press has a fetish for all three, because they are easy an lucrative.  Presidents are the CEO's of one of the largest employers in the nation and spend very little time on administering it.  I think he should be assessing and impoving effeciency and goals(do they accomplish the letter of the law),  in every office under his command (eliminating duplication, outdate bureaucracy,  and overlapping responsibilities) ----   If we could only have each depatment of our bureaucracy under investigation every 4 years.  (Notice how political and public federal employees get when the public scrutiny gets close.) --- 

So.........No is the answer .....I am not saying trumps has been good for agriculture.  And I am not saying trump has anything to do with agriculture.  He is not affecting exports according to the data so far.  Only the imaginations of the press see it differently............... Who is responsible for what is information on agriculture?  And why or where does it get politicized?  I blame the source and their administrators.

Example ---Trump is negotiating agreements on tariffs........which have been all over the place since WW2.  But have always  been part of trade.  

They have been reduced from 1948 to 1994 by % of sales.  Since 1994 they have been politicized to turn the WTO (newly created trade administrative organization) into a world equal rights and environmental enforcer.  Political Agenda's creating "conduct" tariffs to o along with financial tariffs.

Now we have these geneal tariff levels by %..listed below.  With developed and emerging economies living up to different rules of "participation"

And varying by who the numbers come from.

But of course the political press acts like tariffs are a new thing.

	Simple Average (2016) (WTO)	Trade Weighted Average (2016) (World Bank)	Trade Weighted Average (2015) (WTO)
New Zealand	2	1.3	2.5
Australia	2.5	1.2	4
US	3.5	1.6	2.4
EU	5.2	1.6	3
Japan	4	1.4	2.1
Canada	4.1	0.8	3.1
Switzerland	6.3	0	2
Mexico	7	4.4	4.5
China	9.9	3.5	4.4
Brazil	13.5	8	10.4

Gio I do think that commodity futures markets are highly manipulated and only given a small token of regulation.  I do not think Trump is to blame for the manipulation and hope he an the justice  department considers it's lack of regulation.

[sw363535]

Ray

Not sure I agree with that.

Sounds like a political analysis.

Isn't  it true that the font half of a year is loaded because Harvest comes in the front half of the year in the US and the Brazil crop falls in the second half?

Isn't that front loading common to most every year in the US?  Not just the year a President negotiates trade agreements?

[giolucas]

Sw,
Thank you for your perspective and I agree with you 100% that the futures markets are manipulated by those connected, very rich small group of folks.

[roarintiger1]

If China wanted to avoid the tariffs, they would've purchased many more tons of soybeans to help even out the trade deficit.  China didn't buy  early because of the upcoming tariffs, they bought because many of their people would starve without the supply of soybeans.