Floor Talk September 9

[Tony_Dreibus]

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.41, while March futures ended 3¢ higher at $3.51 1/2 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures finished 3 1/2¢ higher at $9.80 1/4, while Jan. soybean futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $9.84. Dec. wheat futures closed 2 1/2¢ lower at $4.03 1/2. Dec. soymeal futures finished $1.10 short ton lower at $316.50. Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.10 higher at 33.37¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.76 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 322 points lower.

Mike

----------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec. corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.39, while March futures are 1¢ higher at $3.49 1/2 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $9.82, while Jan. soybean futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $9.86. Dec. wheat futures are  4 1/2¢ lower at $4.01. Dec. soymeal futures are $0.20 short ton lower at $317.40. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.14 higher at 33.41¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.24 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 216 points lower.

Mike North, President Commodity Risk Management Group, says that short-covering in corn and buying in soybeans has been the feature throughout the week.  
“This has lifted prices ahead of the Monday USDA report. Question over yield continues to be the catalyst to rallying markets,” North says.  
Whether or not the August corn yields can hold remains to be seen, North says.  
“With private analysts aligning both with the August numbers and others with Pro Farmer findings, the market is torn.”  
Looking ahead to Monday’s USDA Reports, in the balance, remains 400 million bushels of production that can sway trader mindsets over the bulkiness of the 2016/17 balance sheet.  
“In question also is the projected feed usage.  With greater usage of wheat, elevated corn feed consumption may be used to mitigate some of the potential reduction in yield.  Markets trade either side of unchanged today as we await the numbers,” North says.

Jason Ward, Director of Grains and Energy for Northstar Commodity, says today’s markets are trading demand and early corn yield reports.

“We continue to hear less than expected corn yields, we would say 70% of our reports are less than expected and 30% are better than expected. We got some yields out of Illinois yesterday that are better than expected (South of Quincy, IL), but South Dakota was much worse than expected,” Ward says.
Ward adds that the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report is showing more sales than daily reports indicate.
“I’m a little disappointed in the daily reported corn sales, they are non existent. But, then we get the weekly sales total and it’s very good. So, they are just buying differently than China does on soybeans, where they buy totals above 100,000 MT. In corn, it must be a lot of small purchases.
For soybeans, it is all about demand. “Another 65 mil/bu in today’s weekly sales total just keeps people interested on the buy side,” Ward says.

Mike

------------

At 9:35am:

If you missed it earlier, the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report shows very strong sales:

Wheat= 662,100 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of 200,000-700,000 mt

Corn= 1.123 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 500,000-1.10 mmt.

Soybeans= 1.778 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 1.10-1.60 mmt.

Mike

--------

In early trading:

At 8:50am, the Dec. corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.36, while March futures are 2¢ lower at $3.46 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $9.77, while Jan. soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $9.81. Dec. wheat futures are  5 1/4¢ lower at $4.00. Dec. soymeal futures are $0.10 short ton lower at $317.50. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.13 higher at 33.40¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.96 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 136 points lower.

Mike

---------

Corn and beans were mixed as investors are starting to wonder what this crop is actually going to look like once farmers get into their fields. On one hand you have flooding throughout most of the Midwest and then you have extremely dry weather in Ohio. On the other hand, the USDA, ProFarmer, Informa, FCStone and so on are all forecasting record production. So what's the real story here? How much have the rains and dry weather taken, and how wrong are the crop estimates?

Here's what happened overnight:

Brent Crude Oil = 1.5% lower.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 1.4% lower.

Dollar = down 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in overnight trading. 
World Markets = Global stocks decline as oil futures fall. 

[ECIN]

USDA,   Job one -- Cheap food for America

ProFarmer, = Big joke !

Informa,  Just BS -- They work for  end user's = cheap feed - what ever

FCStone  = Only concern - runnig it down so there investors can buy cheap and make big money

No record here in Indiana - the thing that there missing is how much disease pressure will effect this crop - was a MTG the other day - local farmer had corn in there with 3 inch sprouts on his corn . 

Another 3.4 inchs late yeserday and last night - heavy rain possible today , with chance of high wind + hail

Yield will be good - but no record - 2014 - 3 days 90 or above - this year = 29 days + I would guess that 65 % of the corn was planted May 20 ( Indiana ) - on = Takes less GDD's - which shortens grain fill period .

[Tony_Dreibus]

Thanks for the reply ECIN. Question -- any word on how much the rain is going to take in terms of yield?

[ECIN]

Tony - Just a few nosing in some fields around here - mainly on the gravel type hot dirt - Moisture running around 21 %  Most said they have not did enough for a good idea yet - but good - More and more guys are checking fields and finding sprouting corn + some Dipoldia ( spelling?? ) which will get worse - stalk's are not very big this year - ( everybodies around here )  As far as mine - I think it will be close or a little better than 200 bpa- compared to 14 at 232 and last year at 222 - I'm thinking that most will be down around 20 from what we all thought about a month or 2 ago - still good corn thuo .

ken

[sw363535]

I am not sure what this tells us but i finished a 250 mile trip yesterday up to Hays, America.  Lots of late milo and green corn, but from Garden City south into the Okla Panhandle the beans were turning yellow.  

That is a month earlier than last several years.  

All of which are irrigated... and have had plenty of water...

[WCMO]

Maybe I've missed it, yet how have the southern corn yields been running, compared to their anticipations?  Lots of corn should be ready South of I-70.  Several guys around here shelled some this week, yields sound good (above average), not fantastic (not best ever).