Floor talk September 13

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 22 1/2 cents lower at $7.23. The Nov. soybean contract ended 4 1/4 cents lower at $13.91 3/4. The Dec. wheat futures settled 25 1/4 cents lower at $7.02. The Dec. soymeal futures ended $3.10 per short ton lower at $362.70. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.12 lower at $57.63.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.97 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 24 points.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 25 cents lower at $7.20 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 11 1/2 cents lower at $13.84 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures are trading 21 1/4 cents lower at $7.06. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $2.30 per short ton lower at $363.50. The Dec. soyoil futures are $0.55 lower at $57.20.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.87 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 23 points.

One analyst says, "The markets are still spooked by the USDA's move to drop corn usage. There's still thinking that even if the USDA cuts yields and production again next month they will again cut usage to keep the fear of running out of corn in the market. That’s a negative mindset for traders. Beans could rally late pulling corn back up, as the frost enters Wednesday."

Mike

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In early trading:

The Dec. corn futures opened 6 3/4 cents lower at $7.38 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract opened 3 1/2 cents lower at $13.92 1/4. The Dec. wheat futures opened 5 1/2 cents lower at $7.21 3/4. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $1.20 per short ton lower at $364.60. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.18 lower at $57.57.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.10 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 8 points.

Mike

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At 7:55am:

I just saw updated NOAA weather maps for this week. I'm not seeing the frost threat that is being talked about for northern states.

More news and market noise:

--USDA says the U.S. corn crop is 29% matured, below a five-year avg of 33%. Soybeans are just 15% matured, way below a 27% five-year average.

--Australia's 2011 wheat crop is now estimated at 26.2 mmt, just below its record of 26.3 mmt. Does this mean a lot more exports in 2012?

--Japan seeks 109,356 metric tons of milling wheat.

--I'm hearing that the world is flush with wheat supplies. Pressure ahead for the wheat market?

Mike

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At 7:01am:

Early calls: Corn and wheat seen 3-5 cents lower and soybeans 8-10 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$1.46 higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower.

World Markets=Mixed as Germany shows signs of turning away from its financialy troubled neighbors.

More in a minute,
 
Mike

[marketeye]

From our industry friends in Brazil, we're hearing more corn and soybean acres in that country for 2012.

Luana Gomes

Gazeta Do Povo editor

With declining yields and crop size prospects for the USA, the world’s attention turns toward South America. Planting of first crop corn has begun in the state of Parana and soybean planting is about to start in Mato Grosso. Strong domestic prices are encouraging farmers to expand both corn and soybean acreage.

Official government figures will not be released until October, but private forecasts indicate that southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul will increase their full-season corn acreage at the expense of soybean acreage, reversing a three year downward trend, while farmers in Center-West Brazil eye more soybean in 2012.

According to those estimates, soybean planted area will rise about 3% nationwide in the coming season, reaching approximately 62 million acres. Total full-season corn acreage in Brazil is expected to increase about 4% and surpass 20 million acres in 2011/12.

If planting figures are realized, and considering trend-line yields, the country could harvest another bumper crop in 2011/12. Brazil's soybean crop is projected at a record 2 billion bushels, while the full-season corn crop is crop is pegged at 915 million bushels.

Thanks Luana. For the audience, notice how corn acres continue to creep higher?

Mike

[BA Deere]

The corn being a little weaker is kind of understandable, with new dribbling in and the closer it gets to $8 there`s very little can be done with it to make enduser money.  On the beans, with the high 20ºs predicted Uff-Dah only one field that lost it`s leaves in the area and alot of greens. The way frost usually works is the first night you think you dodged a bullet, then the second night BAMMO! that`s when it gets ya.  Beans shouldn`t sell off too quickly here IMO.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

I really do appreciate all you do............BUT you gotta get away from that flourescent light more often............

Milford, IA Weather Advisories, Watches & Warnings

FREEZE WATCH
in effect until Thursday, Sep 15, 8:00 AM

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING AND WILL POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD FROST OR KILLING FREEZE MAY RESULT FROM SUCH CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

I just pugged Milford as an example.............an example in IA, not Canada..........

Will it happen, I don't know...........but there is a lot of chatter this AM that the temp predictions are coming in at or below what they were yesterday..........but it shouldn't be a problem, just knock alittle more demand off the top...........

EDIT:  http://www.wunderground.com/severe.asp

thats freeze watch thus far, doesn't include frost issues.........could grow

[farmersaw]

NOAA weather maps i'm looking at as well as the forecast discussion are showing a freeze watch for almost all north dakota, eastern South Dakota, as well as the majority of Minnesota.

which NOAA maps are you looking at?

[marketeye]

I'm not debating whether is a chance of a frost for the northern states. I'm just not seeing the 'for sure' frost temps. And how much damage, if any, will a soft freeze do? I'm asking because I don't know. The maps certainly are not showing a 'hard' freeze.

Mike

[glenlivet18]

The market's not seeing these frost temperatures either, obviously.

[Redpower410280]

I'm in Ne Nebraska and talked to my seed man this morning and he says that we would loss 20 to 40% on our bean yields if it would get as cold here as they are talking northeast of us. I'm sure the trade will call it a beneficial freeze.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

27-28 degrees for 6 hours..........with two shots, dry air, wind during day and calm at night............

I would say thats going to toast some things...........and it could get closer to 24-26 in areas..........

granted it will not be a widespread corn belt event...........but the fact the southern end is shelling because its burnt up..........

well whatever, market obviously wants to tread lower............must be that demand rationing thing...........

[tOTALED]

If a frost does significant damage to top leaves of immature corn, it will cause lighter test weights.