Floor talk September 13

[marketeye]

You all are convincing me that this frost event could do some moderate damage. And if that second night of frost hits, this could be a more severe event for the soybeans. I'm sure we'll get fresh weather forecasts before noon that could shed some more light on this. There's no question the maturity of the crop is slower. 

Mike

[marketeye]

I'm also hearing that the corn market is being pushed down from higher-than-expected corn yields from harvest activity in southern Iowa and central Illinois. Anybody in those areas seeing better yields than first thought? Apparently the corn is 25-35 bu./acre better. What do you hear?

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

higher than expected compared to what???  IA yield is pegged at 167ish........that means for every field that makes 130 there has to be one that makes 200 plus...........and for every field that makes 100 there has to be one that makes 230.......when better than expected means 150-170 and thats probably on the better end of things, I am not convinced............IL is the same way, 161ish, takes a lot of 200 plus bushel corn to replace the mess I witnessed going to and from FPS...........

IMO IA and IL combined are probably 10 bu overstated...........meaning better than expected just means the next cut in production isn't as harsh.............thus another 260M thats not in those two states, some of that might be offset by some adjustments in other areas.........but fact is a 12.5B crop supposedly means a 600Mish carryout.........a 12.3B crop means 400Mish........and thats if demand slows as much as advertised..........

we get some $6's in front of corn you can bet your, well you know what, PENT UP DEMAND will be lined up.........

[nwmsugrad]

Hailed on corn making 80-90bu at 13-15%.  This is from Aug 18 storm that hit large portion of sw iowa.

[stupid]

MT I started harvest Sept. 5th 400acres out all over 200bu. Thought maybe 180 before I started. 235 highest so far.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

if you would, please, location????irrigated or dryland????flat black or light hill????planting date????whole farm average thus far including all acres (remember drown out and lost acres are important this year in total production, since the USDA seems to think we didn't loose too much)?????

not blind to the fact there will be 200 plus bushel corn............always is............don't have to hunt too hard to find some........

however across the road you can find 100 bushel corn.........inconsistancy like that doesn't produce records........

I am guessing if you were thinking 180 and are around 200.......that ground can push 220-240.......which means its likely under some of its better years..........lets see if you are 10% under some of your better years.........and US best year was 164ish.......that means US is 147.6..............JUST A THOUGHT IS ALL

sounds like you will be able to pay some bills with 200 and 7................

[stupid]

MIxed soil types 10yr ave 225bu no drown outs. 20mi from me (centrl Illinois) afield yield checked by pro farmer 178bu was 208bu across the scale.

[Blacksandfarmer]

LOL this is a good debate Mizzou. My forecast for this years corn and bean crop was 156 to158 bu on corn and 39 bu on soybeans at the end of July.... We will see which one of us gets closer!

[Mizzou_Tiger]

by Thursday morning your soya number may be high, as will mine..........I have been at 40-41 all year, sticking with it.........as for corn........we shall see thats for sure........I actually think the USDA yield is pretty close if they had the acreage right........I still contend only about 91M are out there and that comes to around 83.5M harvested.........thus around a 12.3B crop.........

what does a 12.3 crop mean, not sure anymore...........

[highyields]

Whats the Test weight on the corn?