Floor talk September 19

[centralillinois]

Why should taxpayers subsidize farmers when all we do is pay more rent when given farm payments?  If crop insurance wasn't subsidized I doubt if banks would loan money to finance the ever increasing cash rents.  In the 80's a lot more of us would've quit if not for subsidies but at this point it wouldn't bother me to go without. 

[Redpower410280]

If China raises hog production 10% they would need an extra billion bu of corn my question is how much corn does China raise now? By that estimate they would feed between 8 and 9 billion bu of corn to hogs now. When you think about those numbers that is really mind boggling. Our government better be careful with the numbers they put out on this crop otherwise we won't ration demand enough and we will run out of corn. In my mind this crop isn't much over 12 billion bu by the time they adjust harvested acres down and I think it should be about 2 million acres off of corn am I way off base or not let me know what you think.

[bigrock4076903]

MT - I really appreciate the indepth response.  I will sit tight for 2012 for now [although you have said in the past to market some, now is not the time then].  I would have sold a lot of corn for low 5's if it wasn't for your comments over the winter.  Glad I've listened and will continue to listen.    I always scan for your posts and read them carefully.

[tim7781]

i would also like to thank  MT for his thoughts over the last months.you have  made me alot of extra money. keep it up let us know your predictions for the year to come. Tim

[Palouser]

China will raise a record 182.5 MMT of corn this year, but demand is outstripping supply. They are to supplement feed with 1.5 MMT of feed wheat per month to help. They will still import corn. How much is the big question.

If I remember correctly China has a 13% tariff on imported corn - so it's expensive (the state import company is exempt). Corn FOB Portland was over $8.80 a bu recently, before this latest retreat.

I agree with MT's basic premise that this is a demand based market and we are going to be thin on over all supplies. It won't be a cliff hanger, but people and organizations are looking for alternatives. The idea that this is going to be a huge down market don't make sense to me. No way, no how.