For your marketing amusement.

[jrsiajdranch]

Well I haven't said anything real crazy on here in a while so I think I will today!

I think corn will be sub $5 by the end of august!

Now stop laughing you guys If I had feelings that would hurt! LOL

Here's my reasoning or lack of it.

I do not discount the huge supply issues that are starring us right in the face I still thinkwe could see 87 million as the final planted number.  However my Bias has been that the price we are at in all commodities is due to the dollar and nothing else. 

The political class has been manipulating this dollar the way they have wanted to for the past two decades So the incumbent party will have the upper hand. 2008 is what happens when the unforeseen comes up and bites you where the sun don't shine! ( I do not mean OHIO either)

Now every where you go the american consumer is screaming about high gas prices. We have historically high inventories that do not justify these prices. The price is not one of oil supply problems it is a dollar problem!  So the US goverment is (in my not so humble opnion) is going to have to raise the dollar.  This is going to lower oil prices.  When it does ethol plants will have to lower the price of their ethol so as to stay competitive with oil. They have the big stick now in the corn market.  They will bid less for corn!  When they do ( or mothball the plants) that will have a dramatic impact on price.

Awhile ago RayJ said ethol was the new corn reserve. This is how it works. BY lowering gas prices the ethol plants become uncompetitive and therby they use less corn. ( hence the corn lobbies efforts to raise mandated levels so as to insulate that industry from true economics).

NOw so many including myself have advocated that there must be a QE3. well what if instead the political class rasie that dollar higher and therby increses consumer confidence. This has the effect of raisng consumer confidence and makes banks more aggressive lenders. This Will do something that no one else is talking about...........  Raise home sales! Yep it is certain JR has lost his mind! HE HE

At the same time the Goverment will have to have more money so instead of printing dollars they will need to get them somehow so they will raise interest rates to attract money. When they do that they have Committed to a staratagey that will lead to hyperinflation. So this sub 5 $ corn is going to be short lived but it is coming.

Well there you go maybe I have provided a few thought and maybe just a good laugh but one thing about it I put it out there now didn't I?

I need to watch blazing sddles again!

[dalepetefarm]

interesting. I have said for some time that  something will break this market when everyone leasts expects it, and this could be it.

[Red Steele]

but with all the rain falling, my hunch is limit up in corn , wheat, and soybeans on Monday.

August is a long ways away right now, a lot can and will happen between now and then.

[Palouser]

You have surpassed yourself! But, if it is so easy to raise the $$ by command then why are you worried about hyper inflation again? I mean, QE2 was so obvious and everyone will forget math for awhile?

But seriously, sort of, what about the mandate for ethanol?

Not only that but I see the 'political class' and the 'financial class' not having the same goals.

What wonderful webs man weaves to catch himself. I believe that life is much more complicated and less complicated on many levels to be have realistic plans for running the world.

[kraft-t]

They cannot raise interest rates or the deficit will double or nearly so. If they are paying 1 to 2% and it goes to 3 or 4% think of the impact that would have on the deficit.

[jrsiajdranch]

Palouser we can hit the ethol mandate by just coasting to the finish line! We have been bumping up against it for quite some time. By drivning down the cost of oil they kill several birds with one stone. Lower energy and food prices. It's almost magic!

Right now the political class is the financial class can you say Hank Paulson? or hows about timmiy giethner?  Goldman suucks runs the political class right now!

[jrsiajdranch]

Don yes they can! All they have to do is not raise the debt cieling and whala they have to keep folks interested in keeping the money here that already is here.  Can you say spending cuts?

[jrsiajdranch]

Red you may very well be right but my experience is that the traders will follow the USDA Comic book long before they listen to us farmers!  And remember rarely does the futures market get it right. If it did no one would have been able to sell 4 dollar corn last fall. Cause the futures market would have foretold the impending disaster.

[timetippingpt]

Limit up?  Life is fun. I was expecting limit down. Long range forecast warmer and drier for everyone. Wide open window to finish planting 5/30 to 6/4 looks like (of course it is just a forecast remember.) Tons of stuff planted in Indiana this weekend and it is not raining everywhere, look at the accum maps. We'll run late tonight or in the morning if no more rain falls. (Rained twice yesterday and twice today already but accum was only 2 tenths...so the pattern is changing.

We went in to the weekend expecting 2 to 3" rains everywhere and got nothing close to that with a warmer and drier forecast coming out of it. So, I would expect limit down corn but who knows how the trade will spin the facts. Crop condition of the 2/3 of the national crop that is planted will be fantastic.

Lots of guys around here planting corn on corn this weekend, so not sure if we lose all the acres everyone fears. And, it is only May 22. If you guys will remember, most corn was planted around Memorial Day until well into the early 70's.

just an opinion...much like the rains...there are plenty to go around.

btw...with the forecast being what it is, many in the east should slow down now and wait for it to get right. One of these days it will not rain again for 4 to 6 weeks. Not sure that is today, but very soon.

[justinbarnes710]

I have some corn seed I need to ship to Indiana so that somebody can use it.

I hope your forecast is correct.  Our local guys are calling for rain most of the week.