Forgive me

[jrsiajdranch]

i just can't help myself!  this is a great time of year. All the policy wonks are out with currency stuff. I find it fascinating.

Bloomberg ( click on the word to see the video) has an excellent tutorial on what is going on in the currency mkt. How short or long lived this is gonna be is any bodies guess.

Just realize there is a lot of angst out there. Guido is gonna ruffle the feathers and the Russians aren't to happy either. I think they come out with a joint statement that basically says

" We know everybody is playing with their currency we just wish you guys wouldn't be so overt about it."

The end result is if we do have the defensive dollar buy start then corn goes lower. With Brazil very concerned about letting the real inflate vs. the USD it shows that they feel that they need to keep beans on sale to keep the business.

Can the Brazilians keep the real under 2? 

Well we'll just have to see.

Oh yea the Aussies aren't to happy either but what can they really do?

The weekend is gonna make for an interesting open Sunday night /Mon. morning.

But what do I know you guys keep on with peak corn and renewable BS.

Peak currency that is what is gonna really drive this thing.

HHHMMMM. Peak Currency.

remember I coined that phrase.

[c-x-1]

jr,

you are forgiven.....just remember history....the dollar traded between 90-110 in early 70's and above that price in the 80's...about 80.60 currently.

just doubting the currency wars effect grain prices too much over next 3-4 yrs.

c-x-1

[jrsiajdranch]

C-X thanks for your mercy.

I must disagree with ya from a farmers standpoint. You have stated many times your a day trader your looking for profit TODAY.  This is much different thatn the mindset of a farmer. In fact to be a good day trader you really don't care about the fundamentals you care about the psychology of the market.  SO if they think rain makes grain you go with it even tho planting has been delayed or harvest is behind. The psychology of the market is all a trader cares about.

If you are a commercial hedger you are looking at the price points that give you profit.  You now your end product value and you attempt to purchase by interpeting the psychology of the market along with the fundamentals of market to give you a purchasing advantage.

If you are a farmer your goal is generally to hold an assett for 40 - 50 years and be able to accuratly gage your physical production against the fundamentals of the general producer while understanding that the world doesn;t operate in parralel lines but in intersecting ways that take a lifetime to understand.

I am a farmer. I do not care what todays profit was over yesterdays. I think mostly in 4 year cycles. I get a calf on the ground, rasie her up ,  In two years I hope she calves to begin milking. By the end of the second lactation I can begin to see a profit on that one individual cow.   Therfore I believe that I mustt be more intune with long term cycles than the ficalness of the daily trade.

I am not saying that the daily trade isn;t important but it is not the largest factor in my decisions. Therfore when I bring up this dollar stuff it is more about the trend of years than the synopsis of the day. 

Yes I do believe that it can have impast on the daily trade but on a daily basis there can be other things that become more significant, however over time there is no greater single impact on the commodity world than the value of the nations currency. 

If it were not true no farmer in Argentina would be holding his beans today.

Now you bring up some interesting things with your dollar history.
 Those values mean nothing without context.

I have several charts to post I know they will not all fit in this post so I am going to put them in other posts.

[jrsiajdranch]

United States Dollar

The United States Dollar Index or DXY measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of other currencies including EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK. Historically, from 1967 until 2013, the DXY averaged 98.0200 reaching an all time high of 164.7200 in February of 1985 and a record low of 71.5800 in April of 2008. The United States Dollar Index or DXY measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of other currencies including EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK. This page includes a chart with historical data for the United States Dollar Index (DXY).

TO

REFRESH DATES

LIST BY COUNTRY

EXPORT DATA & MORE

THis chart is from Jan of 67 to Feb of 85. 

[jrsiajdranch]

TO

REFRESH DATES

LIST BY COUNTRY

EXPORT DATA & MORE

TREND MOV AVG MEAN MAX MIN

EMBED CHART

[jrsiajdranch]

TO REFRESH DATES LIST BY COUNTRY EXPORT DATA & MORE   TREND MOV AVG MEAN MAX MIN EMBED CHART       Share on email EMAIL   Leave a message about United States Dollar What has been driving it? What is your short-term forecast? DISQUS seems to be taking longer than usual. Reload? Currency An exchange rate is the current market price for which one currency can be exchanged for another. For instance, if the Euro exchange rate for the United States Dollar stands at 1.3, this means that 1 euro can be exchanged for 1.3 U.S. dollars. Because exchange rates play such an important role in a country's competiveness level, currency exchange rates are among the most analysed and forecasted indicators in the world. The exchange rate is determined by the level of supply and demand on the international markets. However, changes in foreign exchange market rates are often difficult to understand and to predict because the market is very large and volatile. 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Italy Trade Surplus Widens in December From a Year Earlier Italy posted a trade surplus with the rest of the world of 2.162 billion euros in December, compared with a surplus of 1.407 billion euros in the same month of 2011. With European Union countries, Italy registered a December trade deficit of 1.155 billion euros, compared with a deficit of 762 million euros in December 2011, according to the national statistics office. Euro Area Trade Surplus Widens in December The first estimate for the euro area trade in goods balance with the rest of the world in December 2012 gave a 11.7 bn euro surplus, compared with +8.0 bn in December 2011. The November 2012 balance was +13.0 bn, compared with +4.9 bn in November 2011. During 2012, euro area trade in goods recorded a surplus of 81.8 bn euro, compared with -15.7 bn in 2011. The EU27 recorded a deficit of 104.6 bn in 2012, compared with -162.7 bn in 2011. Spain Inflation Rate Down to 2.7 Percent in January In January of 2013, the inflation rate was posted at 2.7 percent, two tenths lower than that recorded in the previous month. The annual rate of core inflation increased one tenth and stands at 2.2 percent. The monthly change of the overall index is -1.3 percent. Turkey Unemployment Rate at 9.4 Percent in November Number of unemployed persons increased by 201 thousand persons in the period of November 2012 and has reached to 2 million 630 thousand persons in Turkey. Unemployment rate was 9.4 percent with 0.3 percentage points increase from a year earlier. Netherlands Economy Shrinks 0.2 Percent in Q4 According to the first estimate of the CBS, the economy in the fourth quarter of 2012 contracted 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter. In the third quarter the economy shrank by 1.0 percent from the second quarter. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2011 the economy contracted by 0.9 percent. Japan’s GDP Contracts 0.1 Percent in the Fourth Quarter The Japanese economy has contracted 0.1 percent (seasonally adjusted) in October-December of 2012 over the previous quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter of declining output. Italy Gross Domestic Product Contracts 0.9 Percent in Q4 In the fourth quarter of 2012 the seasonally and calendar adjusted, chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product decreased by 0.9 percent with respect to the third quarter of 2012 and by 2.7 percent in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2011. MORE TOP NEWS   RELATED NEWS United States Loans to Private Sector Loans to Private Sector in the United States increased to 7206.30 USD Billion in December of 2012 from 7168.40 USD Billion in November of 2012. Loans to Private Sector in the United States is reported by the Federal Reserve, United States. 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United States Personal Saving Rate Personal Savings in the United States increased to 6.50 percent in December of 2012 from 4.10 percent in November of 2012. Personal Savings in the United States is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). United States Productivity Productivity in the United States decreased to 111.26 Index Points in the fourth quarter of 2012 from 111.78 Index Points in the third quarter of 2012. Productivity in the United States is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). United States Producer Prices Producer Prices in the United States decreased to 195.60 Index Points in December of 2012 from 196 Index Points in November of 2012. Producer Prices in the United States is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). United States Terms of Trade Terms of Trade in the United States decreased to 87.50 Index Points in January of 2013 from 87.80 Index Points in December of 2012. Terms of Trade in the United States is reported by the Datastream International Ltd. United States Unemployed Persons Unemployed Persons in the United States increased to 12332 Thousand Persons in January of 2013 from 12206 Thousand Persons in December of 2012. Unemployed Persons in the United States is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). MORE RELATED NEWS

[jrsiajdranch]

Now take any grain or oil or gold and notice the inverse relationship to it. Then tell me how that the dollar isn't impactful to the grains. I gotta go but I willl continue this later if your game.

[c-x-1]

jr,

absolutely! you got me thinkin' deeper re: peak currency - interesting and def. comparable to MT's PEAK CORN.

I'll be able to respond more detail later this aft. thanks,

c-x-1

[c-x-1]

jr,

thanks for putting up all the $ charts!

I've traded in several time frames over the years...Some daytrading (S&P day in 90's), SWING- a few days, some trend plays (3-4 wks) and also options. I  trend traded beans in 2002 and used internal financing (it was an aggresive play) & again in 2003-2004 run - less aggressive.  Aggresive option play in corn last summer. 2011 alot of swing option plays in corn w/ all the runs we had. doing some options now.

Bottom line, mostly married with grains now w/ a multi variable approach, pretty comprehensive, and in depth. That's why/how I found site-wanted to keep learning more about ENTIRE business and the inner workings......a lot of y'all have generously accepted me on here and i really appreciate it!...and when i realized I could add something to the game here, so to speak.......it's gettin' even better! Not joking here, i must have ag genes in my DNA. 

Further, learning from y'all's perspective has drawn me more into the truth that ag is the heart of America - was losing hope, before......

Re: currency, i was looking at the same US $ charts you put up. While the relationship IS relatively inverse it is NOT linear or absolutely speaking - inverse, price for price.

For instance, lets just take beans for our commodity example using a few snapshots in time. (price b/price$)

       '73 -1290/ 90.50

       '77 - 1080/ +104

       '80 - 950/ 92

real outlyer year - '83 - 950/ 132 - plus this was quite unusual b/c $ was trending UP.   Like U said, 99% of the time they are INVERSLY trending........and so on and so forth..........and lastly on this, that $ is HISTORICALLY low relative to it's prices last 40 years

........we are not only below 90 today, but below 81.....and I think it will have tough time rallying above 90..........of course i could be wrong: even though it's been rangebound last 5 years, think it will try to takeout 71 before 90.

Even in last half of 2008 $ stayed below 90. Could the gov't printing press break and we inflate? sure....or default on the world and become part of China?

Could be in scenario like the '76-'78 era when interest rates got higher, $$ falling, commodity inflation too---equities rangebound??.............dang, it's gotton to be so late in the afternoon - i'm losing time

c-x-1 

[jrsiajdranch]

CX kinda busy still but your 83 comment is very interesting. Did you know we had a harvested acreage of around 51 million acres? Also the yield was only 81 bu.

That was the year that John Block said "we (the US Gov.) decided to have a PIK program and so did God."

SO I guess if we had had the normal acres even that year we would have followed the trend I postulate in that year as well.