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Senior Contributor

Fourth of July

In my memory I seem to remember the first of July (not July 1 -- just first few deys in July) being a major turning point in the futures prices in a "drought year."

 

In that senerio everyone (even the Chicago shoe shine guy) believes the market can only go up. And all of a sudden calender flips to July and the bottom falls out, no matter that the drought is not over. We then have X number of days of limit down.

 

Any of you guys have any facts on the above senerio? Like I said this is in my memory, which is about as reliable as getting something of substance out of Ag Forum.

 

I sold a small amount of corn yesterday with the July 4th turning point in mind. May do some more today.

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11 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Fourth of July

My thoughts too.

Holiday here so could not sell yesterday.

Holiday over your way tomorrow so will not be able to sell.

I plan on selling another portion of 2011 corn today and some 2012 wheat.

Unsure yet if I will sell 2012 corn, may gamble on it until Thursday as it is still not real high here.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Fourth of July

I wouldn't be surprised.  The news is always most bullish at the top, and it's extremely so right now.  Some folks on here are so enthusiastically bullish it almost makes me wince.  On the other hand anything is possible.  Not even close to getting a sell signal in my corn program, so I'm long.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Fourth of July

Just got a text message from our local Gavilon Grain terminal that said IF you are going to sell grain today do it before noon as they expect a large protection # on the bids after the close of the CBOT at noon.

 

So I am not the only one that has noticed the crash and burn the first week of July. There are exceptions to every rule.

 

 I sold one load yesterday just because of those memories. May do another one later this morning if it catches fire again.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Fourth of July

Got within 3 cents of $7.00 here on cash bids. 2.5 hrs to go ... place your bets , place your bets

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Fourth of July

where you at Hobby Farmer?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Fourth of July

Right here in the cool in the office.

 

The west side of SC Iowa

 or the East side of SW Iowa.

 

 Also known as "South Podunk Country"

 

 All located right here at the end of the Rainbow.

 

But about to go rake hay for a while

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Honored Advisor

Re: Fourth of July

I`m the last one to give market advice, but the last "drought" we had was `88.  That was kind of apples/oranges to now, compare picures of 1988 China to now, ect.  Oil as I type is over $87, perhaps the couple E-plants that shut down for summer will pay the million bucks to turn the lights back on a little earlier.  It`s this simple the market will go up until rain is put in the forecast.  Meterologist Mandy Thalubur was talking to Tim Flemming this AM and she said `hot all week and only a 20% rain chance for NCIA for a day or 2`.  If that is true, come next Sunday this nice crop that`s tasseling now is going to be u.g.l.y.  I can`t see how alot of money will come out of this market, if that`s the case.  But everyone has to do what they think is right. 

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Honored Advisor

$7.00 corn

Sitting right at $7.00 here cash bids. What to do What to do.

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Advisor

Re: $7.00 corn

Hobby, if it helps you make up your mind, my mother just called and asked me if corn was at $7 yet. When I said yes she said "SELL IT!"...and you know mothers...they're always right...Smiley Wink

 

 

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