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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Fringe acres.

Been thinking about FRinge acres and I figured out a couple of things.

 

Definition ------ Well I noticed that most of the producers who comment on them are living in areas where they get more water than they need ----- say  35 + inches of rain per year. ----- and they tend to think the fringe areas should be planting something else  or not be allowed to buy crop insurance or something similar.  So    One way to define fringe acres would be those areas where the average rainfall is below 30 inches of rain.  Make sense??  So I doug out the last year data and found this

 

States with primarily western ties and the majority of their acres under the 30 inch mark raising corn are  18 in number  They raise 5.216 billion bu. on 35.156 million acres.  Thats an average of 148.33 b/a  --- of those 18 states 8 average over 170 bpa in 2013 and 4 of those averaging 190+ .........

 

Let's compare this with the seven corn belt power house states who average 35-50 inches per year.  Seven states that raised a total of 7.206 billion bushel  on 42.99 million acres  for an average of 167.6 b/a   Of those six  only 3 averaged 170 bpa.

 

That means the other 19 states who are raising corn( south, Lower mississippi region and northeast) are producing 1.5 billion bu.  on 9.513 million acres   meaning   157.7 bu/ acre          Five of the 19 average over 170 b/a   

 

of the 13.9 b bu of corn assumed to have been raised last year the corn belt 7 of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconcin raised  only  51.8% of the crop.

 

Gonna bore you to death but now you have something to think about the next time the fringe mongers pipe up.

 

Record crops are built on the irrigation of the fringe.  And so are the long term yield trend lines.  Something to think about buying that $300 seed corn.  

 

Irrigation is on the decline by depletion, regulation, and population  ------- Maybe a leading indicator????????

 

 

 

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9 Replies
bkadds
Advisor

Re: Fringe acres.

Sw. Look at Dallam and Hartley county in the TX panhandle and see how much corn is raised there. Of course we are in decline in total production due to depletion, but imagine if the current efficiencies were in use at the time of widespread irrigation adoption!
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Fringe acres.

I don't have good county data just maps ------- but I know that one of those counties went over 20 Million last year.

And both were over 10million the year before.

 

I would say we are 20 years past the peak production in that area.  Is that close??

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Pat in CMO
Senior Contributor

Re: Fringe acres.

 I think there are fringe acres in every state. Acres tht used to be pasture or expired CRP for example. Ground that is not as productive and with lower prices is better utilized for something other than row crops due to lower expected yeilds or erosion concerns. With the higher prices the last few years alot of this ground has been brought back into crop production. It will not yeild what the better ground does especially if it has a stress period during the growing season.  Patrick

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Fringe acres.

Pat I was thinking about that.  Hobby has talked about how there are just places that are too steep and poor soils and some great production ground all within a mile in his Iowa spot.

 

Real Estate values drive it as well.  I know a young guy who paid a little much for some good flat crp grass land.  If he breaks it out the value was not high at all.  When dollars get tight and loans hard to support, moves like that get done.

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bkadds
Advisor

Re: Fringe acres.

Good question sw. I am not sure exactly. A lot of excellent corn raised here by some really good farmers. We have the average and sub average growers also, namely a guy who I think has used Ag as a tax write off. Much of his ground has been sold and taken over by another group that is trying to turn things around. Irritating when you see water wasted across the county road by folks who merely want the tax advantages. Right of capture...
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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Fringe acres.

Oh its the crop insurance war again, or
Basicly the corn growers assn vs the wheat
growers assn

I remember a few years back the corn
People.were against crop insurance citing
How many have never got anything.

This really made me mad....such a pompous
attitude..
There are other crops just as important as corn.

I was at a meeting today about the farm
Program, that I am not really happy about.
From what it boiled down to what I understand individual stuff or programs
It is going to be county average.

For the past few years our area has
Got very little rain, but the other half
Has got rain, is better ground, and
Fouls us up. Our pastures are brown for
Past few years but only got 1 yr of cattle
Disaster...because the county seat got
The rain.

We on the fringe are not happy getting
Insurance...it is not for lack of trying.

May I also say we pay premiums also and
some also have higher risk rates.

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Fringe acres.

SW you have really stirred up the think tank with this thread and it is a nice twist. Sometimes programs and policy's are their own worst enimies, although they look good written down but once they get implemented it might not look all that rosy. The government needs to realize we don't have a one size fits all production zone but they want a one size fits all program, but anything else would require complete cooperation. Maybe we as farmers are as much to blame as anyone.

I fell into "farm the system" program last year when I attempted Central Kansas dryland corn and it penciled out profitable before I even planted the seed due to insurance guarantee's. Was what I did right ? In my opinion no, but was it accepted? Yep, accepted by everyone and I wasn't alone. On the flip side, if I would have planted these same acres to corn this year I'd probably harvest 300% additional grain over last year. In my opinion, that makes my area variable and therefore "Fringe" for corn.

Milo on the other hand, cut a few hundred acres of 100+ BPA last year and am looking like I'll have yields very close or even a little north this year of what I had last year as long as I'm able to get it in the bin. IMO, sorghum is suited for my area so maybe I'm not "fringe" for milo but the current program doesn't promote me to produce what is best suited for my acres, as much as it does what is best suited for my pocketbook. The system is as much to blame as the producer. Could it possibly be that a few areas that receive nearly 45" to 50" of annual rainfall be unsuitable for corn? Just a thought, everyone always says too wet is just as harmful as too dry, so maybe we have some "fringe" areas that are on the opposite end of the spectrum.
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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Fringe acres.

If someone maybe lives in a "nontraditional corn growing area" but invests in irrigation, could you then say that since God chose them as partners, that farm is no longer "fringe acres"?  I couldn`t know much less about irrigation though a few around here have some, but don`t you basically dial in the yield that you want?  If you want 300/bu acre, just pour the water to it and fertilize through the rig as well.

 

There`s a website where most of the posters are on the fringe...I won`t mention names to protect the guilty Smiley Happy   But about every July it would go something like "Oh I called the crop insurance agent and he zeroed me out so I`m getting the disc greased up"   and   "Well the riverbottom flooded again..too late to replant, gotta talk to the crop insurance man this afternoon".   I`m not making lite of their troubles, but man some of them go from discing a burnt up crop one year to bragging about double ears 18x48, 275 bushel the next. 

 

There was a market guru with his own private jet that used to needle those guys, his handle was "Dec" ...he was always bearish and didn`t like any talk of farmers getting out their "disc" in July  Smiley Very Happy

Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Fringe acres.

BA, I don't think the irrigation is a "Water as much as you want" program. I'm far from qualified to answer irrigation questions, but perhaps SW could discuss how it works as far as allocations and such.
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