From the floor April 1

[marketeye]

At the close:

The May corn futures settled 39 1/4 cents higher at $7.32 1/2. The May soybean contract closed 15 cents lower at $13.95. The May wheat futures settled 2 3/4 cents lower at $7.60 1/2. The May soybean meal futures closed $6.90 per short ton lower at $360.80. The July soyoil futures closed lower.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.26 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 85 points, reaching a 2011 high.

One analyst says, "Some profit-taking, in the corn, for sure.  After all, 75 cents in two sessions going, into the weekend, would have me moving to the door too! 

Soybeans lower on talk that China has postponed or cancelled shipments in Brazil.  Wheat, with no real reason to rally for the minute, so a two-sided affair there. Corn saw profit-taking from specs, maybe some farm-selling too.  Prices are good for farmers, so anyone who calls me is told to sell a bit of cash here. 

Next week, could be a long liquidation week or at least early it could be. But, we will start to pay more attention to the weather now.  We need very good weather to get the best yields and we need the best yields too.  Overall, any selling will be met with strong buying interest. So, any downside is limited in any of these markets."

Mike

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At mid-session:

Corn is off its limit and is trading again.

The May corn futures are 38 3/4 cents higher at $7.32. The May soybean contract is 18 1/4 cents lower at $13.92. The May wheat futures are 8 1/4 cents lower at $7.55. The May soybean meal futures are $6.20 per short ton lower at $364.50. The July soyoil futures are $0.48 lower at $58.30.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.89 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 94 points.

Mike

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At 10am:

In the options pit, the May corn contract is trading, synthetically, at $7.43 on $1.20 calls, one trader says.

Separately, Matt Pierce, GrainAnalyst.com, says in a daily newsletter, "Corn is the price leader today but I think traders need to get one thing in focus, 92.2 million acres is not bullish. That's a solid number that, thought it will vary, should make the trade far more comfortable than the 76.6 million for beans. China is planting 5.5% less bean acres this year due to corn and cotton acreage. That means they will likely need to import another 2-3 MMT of beans next crop year just to cover static demand."

Mike

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At 9:40am:

A 2 1/2 year high! May and July corn futures have hit 'limit up'. Today's limit is 45 cents. Meanwhile, the Sep corn is up 23 cents and Dec. is up 13 cents.

Mike

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At the open:

The May corn futures opened 41 1/4 cents higher at $7.35. The May soybean contract opened 4 cents lower at $14.05. The May wheat futures opened 1 1/2 cents lower at $7.62. The May soybean meal futures opened $0.40 per short ton higher at $370.30. The July soyoil futures opened $0.29 lower at $58.49.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.25 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 92 points.

Mike

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At 7:35am:

The floor talk is that corn is going to $7.44 soon and $8 next week. Do you believe it?

Mike

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At 6:45am:

As a review, the Report told us corn use for feed and ethanol production is running higher, the margin for error this growing season is narrowing, the corn acreage increase came from the Dakota's, not the South, which means more bean acreage will come from the South, a less yielding area. The Report reminded us that we need more acres for everything, and we can't find enough.

It's interesting that a young woman, that works next to me on the floor, was asking me why the U.S. can't find enough acres. I offered up that over the years, suburban sprawl has gobbled up some high productive land. She replied, "With so many foreclosures out there, why don't we tear some of those homes and buildings down and recapture that land?" I said good idea.

One hour later, I was visiting with a small group of traders. Suddenly, one of them said, "Have you heard about investors buying up abandoned buildings, bankrupt malls, and housing projects that tanked with the financial collapse, with plans of planting crops? This is how hot this land market has become."

I smiled and thought how simple and obvious some ideas are. How can a young woman, making minimum wage, running papers around the trade floor, have such a million dollar idea. She is right on the mark. You know what else she said? She wants to go to Utah and 'stake a claim' to some virgin government land. I don't know, maybe she is on to something.

And For What It's Worth: I just got off the phone with a contact tied to an ag group just returning from China. After touring and visiting with ag industry folks, the takeaway message is that country needs significant amounts of corn and soybeans. He says, regardless of what you hear, don't expect China to let up with buying corn or soybeans. People on the ground, in China, fully admit the increased need for those two products.

Mike

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At 6:15am:

Early calls: Corn up 25-30 cents, soybeans 1-2 cents lower and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.

Crude Oil=$0.49 higher.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher with a Friday labor market report that is expected to be positive. 

World Markets=Higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[clayton58]

And our govt. continues to tie up some 33 million acres in CRP, at least some of which (I know, not ) is perfectly good and productive cropland.

[marketeye]

clayton58,

Speaking of the government. The Dollar is rising as this morning's U.S. Payrolls Report beat the street's expectations. A rising Dollar could temper the commodities today, except for corn.

Mike

[SouthWestOhio]

Has anyone ever really had success trying to convert developed land back to cropland. I can't imagine the soil profile ever being able to produce much.

[dapper7]

yes mike, i think we will need to see the 8 print on oldcrop corn and to bump it hard in new crop.

[highyields]

Now according to the latest census data I saw about my home state of Nebraska the only counties that gained population was the three big ones, Lancaster county, Home of Lincoln and the University, Douglas and Sarpy, Home of Omaha and its surrounding satellites. 

So there should be no need of urban sprawl in any of the other counties.  Including mine, I sit in an unusally situation, I'm exactly 45 minutes from down town Lincoln, and 45 minutes from down town Omaha.   It isn't so much urban sprawl as it was 1031 exchange money that bit me in the last 10 years.  

You could plant urban gardens are orchards in these old malls, tear them down, break up the concrete, When I was at the University in LIncoln 10 years ago they had concerns about urban flooding because concrete doesn't soak up water.  Could the City rent Urban gardens out to residents???   everyone is concerned about taxes and money sources, what would urban gardens do the air quality?   that young women is a genius in my own opinion....

If you can pave over soil you can break up the concrete, add compost, you can bring soil back to life. 

[highyields]

$8 corn yeah very possilbe.  then the question remains, how much corn do you sell now 1st of april if it does go to $8?   Demand is going nowhere, with the past month everyone had the oppurtunity to lock in $6.50 corn.   I was at the sale barn last week and one of the buyers said, he'd buy all the $6 corn he could get hauled to him.  

think the ethanol plants didn't take advantage of the past month?   I sure hope they did. 

[kenj3063508]

I'm guessing that the developer (or his banker) is going to demand "development" prices for that land, and then you would be faced with the problem of clearing out all the concrete, and underground utility wires and pipes.

Offhand, it doesn't sound to me like a viable project, but one could crunch the numbers and see where one comes out.  LOTS of things work at $8 corn levels, which don't work well at all  when corn is $3.    KenJ

[marketeye]

Wow, nearly a dollar put on the corn market in two days! That's what a report will do.

Mike

[marketeye]

highyields,

A corn trader is telling me the corn could come off and sell off a bit today, if it gets back down through $7.30.  Having said that, by getting through last week's high, technically, it has about a $7.71 objective. So, he isn't exactly bearish yet.

Mike