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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor April 19

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 2 3/4 cents lower at $7.57. The July soybean contract closed 1 3/4 cents lower at $13.54. The July wheat futures ended 10 1/4 cents higher at $8.21. The May soybean meal futures closed $1.40 per short ton lower at $346.40. The May soyoil futures settled $0.15 higher at $58.16.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.56 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 51 points. Gold hit $1,500 an ounce for the first time, ever.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures are 1/2 of a cent higher at $7.60. The July soybean contract is 1 1/4 cents lower at $13.54 1/2. The July wheat futures are 14 cents higher at $8.24 3/4. The May soybean meal futures are $0.10 per short ton lower at $346.80. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.03 higher at $57.42.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 11 points.

 

One CME Group floor trader says, "I think it is going to be a very choppy and low volume trade for the rest of the week, as some traders already have taken off for Passover.  As the week comes to an end more traders will be off for the Easter holiday/long weekend.
Wheat futures leads the upward rally on a weaker dollar and weather concerns.  The spillover is helping corn and soybeans recover out of negative territory."


Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures opened 4 cents higher at $7.63 3/4. The July soybean contract opened 3 1/4 cents higher at $13.59. The July wheat futures opened 16 3/4 cents higher at $7.91 1/2. The July soybean meal futures opened $0.40 per short ton higher at $353.60. The July soyoil futures opened $0.22 higher at $58.23.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.15 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 30 points.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

Updated Weather: Do you want to know where this corn market is going? Oh boy! I suggest you watch Freese-Notis's new weather outlook. Notice the two-week precipitation map that Chris shows right at the beginning of the report. Looking for corn price direction? You may have to look no further than right here.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

What do you think it means when China announces they will limit non-feed processors from consuming corn? It seems like this is a clear sign they are short on corn. Today, the Dow Jones Newswire story says the non-feed processors will be cut back to their 2009 use level. Hmmmm.

 

Separately:

--The drought in Texas may have cut that state's wheat crop in half.

--Are you a stock picker? Ag-related stocks and Exchange-Traded-Funds are outperforming a lot of other S&P'ers.

--It's not just here. Farmland in the UK is rising the fastest since 2008.

--Brazil's soybean harvest is 88% complete

 

At 6:55am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher and wheat 8-10 cents higher.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$0.73 lower.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading slightly higher ahead of a lot of company earnings reports today. Johnson & Johnson and Goldman Sachs are just to name a few of the earnings coming out. 

World Markets=Mixed.

 

Note: More rain and wind in Chicago, today. It's cold too. Wow, a look at the radar shows a lot of heavy rain falling in Illinois. Not ideal weather for the corn already planted or the corn trying to get seeded.

 

 

More in a minute,


Mike

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11 Replies
jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 19

YOu know I can type a pretty long winded message but a pic is worth a 1000 words so here is one or two. I took this 5 minutes ago.  Already fed cattle and stuff it started snowing about 4:30 this morning.

Yes I took this pic from in the house. I am so sweet if I went out in this I would surely melt!  May not do to much other than chores today. Might make a movie HE HE

 

IM000101.JPG

 

The date on th pic is wrong it was really taken this morning not Sunday

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 19

China.  Here is a thought.  If the US decided to end ethanol, the outcome might to way different that most expect.  At first corn prices would drop.  China and other countries would most likely come in and buy the corn for both feed and I would expect them to start making their own ethanol as they really like the DDG's.  Since the corn used for ethanol would now just be shipped to China and others, the price of corn could actually go up more than now in the US as we would lose the DDG's to feed and the extra corn would be exported along with a lot of jobs.  There is no free lunch.  Those that are against US ethanol better pick their poison. 

JR's snow pictures are surreal.   There is always next week.  More acres were committed to corn around here when the NH3 rolled on the first of the month.  Still lot of time to plant...and the US farmer can put it into the ground at amazing speed.  But those playing this market short better stock up on the Tums. 

 

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p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 19

If china is going to slow there grind for ethanol then they WILL be after more crude.......They are not going away......p-oed

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 19

jrsiajdranch,

 

The market continues to eye weather closely, one CME Group floor trader says. "A little rain on the extended 10-day weather forecast for the Panhandle makes me leery of pushing higher in the wheat market. But, we need rain in EU to calm markets as well."
Dec corn price may stall on Thursday, with option expiration inhibiting rallies in the May contract, he says. "Also, there is fear that planting weather could change. Three days is a long time to wait for next forecast," the trader says.
He adds, "Putting a high on it technically, I can't get Dec above $6.90 per bushel, but weather is key. The next three weeks are the most important and if the current wet pattern persists what do you use for yield?"
Keep in mind that last year the USDA acknowledged a fast start to planting with an above trend yield on their first report. "I wonder what they will do this year," the trader asks.

 

Meanwhile, one analyst says the wheat market is leading the way Tuesday.
"Monday's USDA crop condition report confirmed that the winter wheat crop is in trouble. This pushed wheat higher pulling corn and beans along. But corn also had a crop progress report show planting under expectations. And with heavy rains this week, corn looks to fall well behind the 5 and 10 year average. That lends market thoughts that if that continues we could see lower yields on late planted corn or acres eventually switched to beans," he says.
Next week is setting up wet as well. "But, watch for some profit taking before this Thursday's close, as markets are closed Friday and traders will trim risk."

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 19

Nice photo. Thanks for sharing. I know the U.S. corn crop can be planted very very quickly. And the weather can change very very quickly. But, the market trades fear before fact. And one of these short days, you could see this market run up on that weather fear.

 

Mike

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 19

Marketeye we have gotten 4 inches this morning so far!  THe snow plows came out to plow 17!  I had to put the ford in 4WD to keep from sliding around. More pics later.

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 19

jr -we've had 2" here this morning, but ours is rain compared to your snow! My fields all look like lakes. And if this weather ever breaks we won't be able to jump in the planter and go as there's lots of P&K to be spread and spraying to be done.

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jcf97
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor April 19

Talk about weather differences across the USA.  From up here in the red river valley, dealing with the flood that wont recede and cold temps, and drought in the south and possibly 2weeks of moisture in the corn belt.  A lot of things going on that are not that favorable rite now.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: From the floor April 19

This year kind of reminds me of 1988.  Late April snow, followed by planting in cold May with corn taking nearly 3 wks to emerge.  Then a dry summer  100 bu/a county yields if you lied a little.  We`ll see, be long or be wrong???

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