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Veteran Advisor

From the floor April 21

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 4 cents higher at $7.44 1/2. The July soybean contract closed 20 1/2 cents higher at $13.89 3/4. The July wheat futures settled 14 cents higher at $8.34 3/4. The July soybean meal futures settled $9.30 per short ton higher at $363.90. The July soyoil futures closed $1.20 higher at $58.91.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.66 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 32 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 5 1/4 cents higher at $7.45 3/4. The July soybean contract is 11 3/4 cents higher at $13.81. The July wheat futures are 11 1/2 cents higher at $8.32 1/4. The July soybean meal futures are $6.10 per short ton higher at $360.70. The July soyoil futures are $0.06 lower at $58.73.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.31 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 31 points.

 

One analyst says that next week's planting weather doesn't look any better than this week's. "Expect Monday's 3 PM Crop Progress Report to show corn, spring wheat and oat plantings well behind the five and ten-year averages, with the following Monday report even further behind. This looks to give us a positive start to the futures next week as traders price in planting concerns."
With plenty of time left for a good corn crop, the real threat late planting brings to corn is just fear not fact, he says. The planting weather is really bullish for the market today.
"But, futures trades fear before fact. The first weather guru to scream warmer, drier weather lies ahead will break the market hard. It only takes one to scream 'fire' in a theater and everyone runs to the exit. For example, funds are fat on weather profits."


Mike

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At 10:45am;

Markets are still finding strength off of unfavorable planting weather.

 

One analyst is directing me to the WXRisk 7-day weather forecast that reads: "As you can see, there is a large area of rainfall amounts, up to 5 inches, covering southern  half of OH... southern half of IND and ILL, southern third of MO, and northern KY. The 2 " or more color band
of rain covers eastern SD, eastern NEB, all of IA , the rest of MO, northern ARK ...the rest of ILL
IND and OH... all of MN and all of WI . ... and into eastern third of
OK."

 

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures opened 3 3/4 cents higher at $7.43 1/2. The July soybean contract opened 1/2 of a cent higher at $13.69 1/4. The July wheat futures opened 2 1/2 cents higher at $8.23. The July soybean meal futures opened $1.50 per short ton higher. The July soyoil futures opened lower.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 23 points.

 

Mike

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At 7:35am:

USDA's Weekly Export Sales numbers were neutral for corn, bullish for soybeans, bearish for wheat.


For corn, the weekly sales were 857,400 metric tons vs. the trade estimates of 800-1.1 million metric tons (mt).

For soybeans, the USDA estimates sales at 555,300, above the trade estimates of 200-400,000 (mt).

For wheat, the weekly export sales were 303,200 metric tons, below the trade estimates of 400-800,000 (mt).

Soymeal exports were recorded at 134,600 vs. the trade estimates of 75-150,000 (mt).

 

Mike

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At 7:25am:

It's a matter of whom you talk to. That's what I'm finding out regarding why the corn market fell yesterday. Here are the reasons I've heard:


1. The funds were sellers. They have made so much money playing ags vs. the stocks market, they reaped some rewards.

2. The 11-15 day weather forecast improved. Now, the weather guy is saying not as much rain 11-15 days out.

 

3. Ethanol production dropped sharply. Here's the latest report from the Energy Information Agency. According to the data, ethanol production for the week ending 4/15/2011 fell dramatically to 865,000 barrels per day (b/d) – or 36.33 million
gallons daily.  That is down 42,000 b/d from the week before and is the lowest weekly output data since 9/24/2010.  The 4-week average for ethanol production stood at 890,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 13.64 billion gallons.

 

Stocks of ethanol fell back slightly as well to 20.1 million barrels.

 

 

So, which one do you think dropped the corn market? Take your pick.

 

Mike

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At 7am:

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher and wheat 3-5 cents higher. USDA's Weekly Export Sales will be released at 7:30am CST.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$0.66 higher.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher after strong corporate earnings from GE and Apple. Plus, DuPont smashed the street's expectations for the company's earnings. Seed sales to farmers jumped 18% this year, boosting DuPont. 

World Markets=Higher on corporate earnings beats.

 

Note: This is the last trading day of the week, for the CME Group grain and soybean commodities. In recognition of the Easter Holiday, the farm markets won't trade again until Sunday night.

 

 

 

More in a minute,


Mike

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8 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 21

MIke snow is mostly melted but I had to scrape the frost off my pick up window this morning to get to the dairy farm. Yesterday a neighbor told me the soil temp was 35 degrees!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 21

What's the temperature you need to plant corn? And how long will you wait to get the right soil temp for corn, before switching to beans. With this delayed planting weather, is it that you are not so much worried about having to switch to beans, but a weakening corn yield potential?


Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 21

MIke this dairy farmer doesn't grow any beans so I am gonna stay with corn till July 1 as I can always chop it. Lots of guys around here will stay with corn till the first week of June. Like I have said before if they do switch to beans it will be the last resort and it will hurt bean yields as the optimum planting date ofr those will have long past.

My BMR and TMF corn do not have the early seedling vigor that conventional corns do. Therefore I must have soiuld temps above 50 and they need to be sure to stay there. If I am planting by the 7th of May I will be fine.  I have already tore up my old hay fields before this last water event. SO it won't take me long to getr done!

I think this year the farmer will be his own worst enemy. They will try to get out there to early and then casue compaction in the seed slot.

We need to keep things in perspective. How many years have we been able to plant corn before Good Friday?  I don't remembr to many. (actually only one) This is a year to watch the soil and not the calendar. HOwever the guys that were hoping to get in on the early corn bids in Sept. are SOL!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 21

Mike have you heard anything from the florr about the dollar breakin thru the resistance line it has held for two years last night?  What happens if we go for the 08 bottom?  Here we go for some real interesting times, We have a long weekend,  oil spiked again in the overniught. It looks like we could go into the weekend with gold close over 1500 for the first time everSilver looks to be going for a close over 45.

I kinda wonder who wins the tug of war today. The trader who liquidates and takes profits before the long weekend or the guy who bets that we are gonna keep driving higher with the currency exchange being the driver.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 21

This corn floor trader says, "This market is primed for swings. But overall, still bullish. I said yesterday that if we got thru  757 1/4 we could sell off a bit . This was coupled with long weekend and plenty of longs looking to take some profit. But, and a big but,  I'm certaintly not convinced this market has changed its colors from bullish. I think we can turn and in a hurry."

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 21

I know of a central Iowa farmer that planted early. Now, his corn has been sitting in cold temps and wet conditions for seven days. One crop specialist, I guess, is saying the yields will certainly be hurt. He should prepare to replant. We'll see.

 

Mike

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Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor April 21

 
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Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor April 21

 
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