From the floor April 25

[jec22]

The biggest report to watch all week is the NWS 8-14 day.  At some point, guys will start planting if the ground will hold equipment, not based on ideal soil conditions.   Protecting insurance coverage will be the new game in town.  These soil temps and the current 8-14 day say little to no GDU's coming in the next couple of weeks for northern half of the cornbelt.  It won't grow in the bag or in the ground, but if you put corn in the ground you know you can collect insurance, and with big money already spent on fertilizer...best way to protect cash flow.

The law of unintended consequences...Crop insurance that has such high levels of revenue actually encourages producers to plant or not replant in ways that would not be the norm.

Fasten your seat belts,  we are heading into uncharted waters.   

[marketeye]

SouthWestOhio,

Well, I mean that not all farm ground is next to the Missouri River like this one. And I'm hearing that more water is on its way down the river from states to the north.

Mike

[jec22]

Crop progress and wheat ratings;

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-04-25-2011.pdf

8 to 10 day forecast

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Would going after all the domestic oil supply available in the US, which should bring down the price of crude..Stabilize the ship for awhile?

[nwobcw]

   That's mild compared to my area.  An 8" main draining 30 acres was running full Sunday before this rain.  An 18" surface drain pipe draining 60 acres is running almost full as of this afternoon.

[highyields]

I know the area, just on the other side of the bridge, thats only 15 miles from my house, I'm just off of Hiway 2 west of Nebraska City.  I haven't ventured over the bridge in awhile.  Those guys along the river have it tough, when i was in college, its been like 10 years ago, i know a guy that his family had all missouri river ground in missouri, they sold it cause they couldn't raise anything.  

another kid down by falls city on the nebraska side didn't get anything planted on their ground for like 7 years, that was in the last ninties, his dad went to a custom harvestor to make money.  

When the river gets really high, it "bubbles" up under the levy and comes up on the land side of the levy the only way it goes down is when the river goes down, thats what I've been told, I dont' farm any over there, its nice farming, until when its wet.  

Its wet here again, we got another 1/4 of an inch this afternoon.  It doesn't take long to get "late" our above trend line yields are gone, 

We aren't going to get 92 million acres this year.